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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 42)

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    Aurelius
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    Dec 17th, 2019
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    #1204177518

    Oh, what’s that?… me jumping back on the Viola Davis train. My prediction has tunneled since November from Davis to McDormand to Day to Mulligan and back to Davis. Call me crazy, but unless something happens at BAFTA to change my mind, I think she might actually pull this off. Of course the lack of a MRBB Best Picture nom is troubling here…

    What could happen at the BAFTA to change your mind? Since we know it will be McDormand, Kirby, or a non-nominee.

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204177528

    BAFTA will most likely go to a Black woman. I’m not quite familiar with the performances, hope Woodard wins. Yes I know the stat of no BAFTA winner has ever won without being nominated for an Oscar blah blah. Doesn’t matter look at the jury picks being mostly POC and POC sweeping the acting categories at Globes and SAG.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    Feb 19th, 2012
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    #1204177543

    Just switched my prediction to Viola Davis – correct me if I am wrong but Carey Mulligan hasn’t won any major awards this season for PYW. I felt that SAG was going to decide this year’s Oscars more so than other years.

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    jez89
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    Aug 14th, 2018
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    #1204177547

    Davis is such a lazy and awful win

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    Riley Chow
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    #1204177550

    I have had Day for the win since the day after the Globes, but this Davis win is surprisingly concerning.  The hope for my predictions is that all of the Davis votes transfer to Day, but that is of course a preposterous assumption that we never make about any SAG winner.  My concern is that Davis and Day are going to be drawing from the same pool of voters, who do not align with the critics’ affinity for subtler performances and are instead drawn to loud, singing, biopic work.  Day’s film was stronger at the Globes than the Oscars and Davis’s film was stronger at SAG than the Oscars, so I do not know how many votes they can afford to lose to each other.  I guess that it helps that McDormand consistently eats into Mulligan’s support.

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    Monet Tejada
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    Sep 27th, 2011
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    #1204177572

    I always knew Davis was in the race still. It’s Day vs. Davis.

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204177577

    Davis is such a lazy and awful win

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    GusCruz
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    #1204177587

    I have had Day for the win since the day after the Globes, but this Davis win is surprisingly concerning. The hope for my predictions is that all of the Davis votes transfer to Day, but that is of course a preposterous assumption that we never make about any SAG winner. My concern is that Davis and Day are going to be drawing from the same pool of voters, who do not align with the critics’ affinity for subtler performances and are instead drawn to loud, singing, biopic work. Day’s film was stronger at the Globes than the Oscars and Davis’s film was stronger at SAG than the Oscars, so I do not know how many votes they can afford to lose to each other. I guess that it helps that McDormand consistently eats into Mulligan’s support.

    I have a feeling Day’s performance “travels” better than Davis’, especially with European voters.

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    wolfali
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    #1204177595

    If Bukky Bakray wins the BAFTA then a black woman is taking the Oscar. As they should. I’m rooting for Mulligan (and I do still hope she wins although I won’t predict her to) but having only one black best actress winner in the space of 90 years is absolutely appalling.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1204177602

    Day has a better narrative

    How does Day have a better narrative than Viola? Day was in a trash film that no one saw. She’s also the only nomination from said film. Viola is a beloved leading lady who’s widely considered to be deserving of a lead acting Oscar. That’s always been the driving force behind predicting her: it was clear people wanted her to win a lead Oscar. Day could maybe still win (although I doubt it with her SAG snub) but she doesn’t have a stronger narrative than Viola.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1204177609

    I still think Carey Mulligan is winning the Oscar. It’s more likely for her film to win Screenplay + Actress like The Pianist.

    The international votes are coming big for her. The AACTA is the Oracle. They were the ones who voted for Colman and Rylance when SAG denied them both. And we know Mulligan would’ve won BAFTA with the Old voting.

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    Melvinezq
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    Aug 7th, 2020
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    #1204177644

    I guess that it helps that McDormand consistently eats into Mulligan’s support.

    Would you explain a little bit, please?

    I have a feeling Day’s performance “travels” better than Davis’, especially with European voters.

    I think so. It’s a more typical biopic, so the watchers, especially European voters, will know which one to root for better. I think the fact that Davis is not a namecheck (the way she’s in SAG awards) will help Day.

    "The Lost Daughter" in every eligible category - Film
    "Succession" Season 3 in every eligible category - TV
    "Heaux Tales" by Jasmine Sullivan in every eligible category - Music

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    Fletcher
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    Nov 12th, 2016
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    #1204177656

    And we know Mulligan would’ve won BAFTA with the Old voting.

     

    How do you get something if you haven’t even been nominated?

     

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    jez89
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    #1204177658

    If you think Davis was better than Kirby or Mulligan then you’re delusional. But I think you only want POC people to win anyway.

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    Bassett
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    Dec 21st, 2016
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    #1204177670

    How does Day have a better narrative than Viola? Day was in a trash film that no one saw. She’s also the only nomination from said film. Viola is a beloved leading lady who’s widely considered to be deserving of a lead acting Oscar. That’s always been the driving force behind predicting her: it was clear people wanted her to win a lead Oscar. Day could maybe still win (although I doubt it with her SAG snub) but she doesn’t have a stronger narrative than Viola.

    Totally agree

    I do believe Day is still very much competitive but there’s no way in hell that her narrative is better than Viola when the latter yet again just proved that she’s an industry favorite 💀

    FYC

    AOTY - Renaissance

    Best Actress - Michelle Yeoh

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