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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 43)

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    Luca
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    #1204178753

    Wow, this whole discussion has managed to become even more frustrating. I have watched people trying to come up with reasons as to why Viola isn’t in this race for months, and then when she wins SAG — an industry award (!!!) — she’s still supposedly not really in the race. Please. Give it up: even if she isn’t winning, she’s at the very, very least in the top 3.

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1204178764

    I’m going to try and keep Davis at #1 until Oscar night! While PYW is my favourite of the BP nominees, I loved Ma Rainey and was disappointed when it missed that lineup. Although I haven’t seen Billie Holiday yet, I feel comfortable saying Davis would be a great winner here.

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1204178768

    Give it up: even if she isn’t winning, she’s at the very, very least in the top 3.

    She is in the Top 2 for me. I just don’t see how she cannot be in your Top 2 after winning SAG.

    I don’t know what is happening in this category, but this is the most wide-open race we have had in years. Even Supporting Actress got a lot more clearer after Youn’s win.

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    Aimerarrow
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    #1204178772

    Viola is top 2 imo. Again, why should we be convinced that BAFTA longlist (not even top 12) snubee and SAG snubee Andra is going to get votes all across the board for a flop film?

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204178779

    Everyone who has some award is in the race though industry award gives an edge and that’s Davis, unfortunately. Worst perrormance, next to worst movie. Also, she could coattail Boseman who stole her thunder but since there’s absolutely no concensus on the front-runner, they might just name-check her like SAG.

    So as of now:

    Davis – SAG, coattails Boseman, narrative to give Actress to a black actress again, type of role AMPAS votes for ad nauseum (see lip-syncing Malek)

    Day – Globe, narrative to give Actress to a black actress again, type of role AMPAS votes for ad mauseum (see real singing Zellweger). Could these 2 split or one will have majority of voters behind her? Probably the latter but which one (Davis thanks to Boseman support? Day for carrying the movie all alone?)

    Mulligan – CC, widespread support for her movie in other major categories but they could award it in Script and leave it at that

    The rest – BAFTA or nothing and that’s iffy too cause nominees were selected by the jury. So voters could back up someone who missed with AMPAS. or not.

    Doesn’t look good. At all. Except for Davis stans who I congratulate for being right about (basic) SAG.

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    Elazul
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    #1204178788

    Davis – SAG, coattails Boseman, narrative to give Actress to a black actress again, type of role AMPAS votes for ad nauseum (see lip-syncing Malek)

    And yet around here Angela Bassett 1993 is still lamented. Double standards much?

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204178794

    And yet around here Angela Bassett 1993 is still lamented. Double standards much?

    Maybe, I have no idea what happened before I was born. Also, did she go against another actress who actually sang? Cause Day did the job herself.

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    Elazul
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    #1204178806

    Maybe, I have no idea what happened before I was born. Also, did she go against another actress who actually sang? Cause Day did the job herself.

    No, she lost against an actress who was mute in 99% of the film.

    My point is that lip-syncing is only a bad thing when the actress is disliked, if she is liked then “it doesn’t matter”.

    I don’t think the academy is going to be like “Day deserves it more because she actually sang”…

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    forwardswill
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    #1204178812

    This thread is hilarious. Everyone’s trying desperately to apply some logic to what they were predicting before. At the end of the day, there is no precedent for this race now so we need to stop slating each other as if anyone can know what the right answer is. If Kirby wins BAFTA, any of the 5 can win the Oscar. And for that I am pumped up.

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    Luca
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    #1204178816

    Honestly, what I see is very clear: Some people did not like Davis’ performance, can therefore not imagine anyone else liking it, are therefore trying to come up with reasons/excuses as to why she won SAG, and therefore do not think she’s really in this race at the Oscars. Just accept that people like this performance more than you thought they would.

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1204178818

    Hun, Holly Hunter outacted that Bassett over the top mess.

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    Chaplin
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    #1204178826

    Wow, this whole discussion has managed to become even more frustrating. I have watched people trying to come up with reasons as to why Viola isn’t in this race for months, and then when she wins SAG — an industry award (!!!) — she’s still supposedly not really in the race. Please. Give it up: even if she isn’t winning, she’s at the very, very least in the top 3.

     

    yes, I agree. I think that there is a top 3 consisting of Day, Davis and Mulligan at this moment, perhaps BAFTA will change that. I could honestly see anyone of these winning, here are my thoughts:

    Day: even though her film has not got the best reviews her performance was able to overcome that and she got the nomination. She won the globe over others who were thought to be stronger, showing that her performance does have passion.

    Davis: She won SAG, showing a lot of respect from fellow actors, and her performance is clearly loved. I see some saying that Ma Rainey won’t win both lead oscars because it doesn’t have a best pic nom, but if there is passion for her performance why can’t she win? If there is any year to break stats it’s this year.

    Mulligan: This performance does have a lot of passion, along with the film as it got best pic, directing, screenplay, editing. Losing the Globe and SAG is not a good thing, but is the passion for the film enough to take the Oscar? I think her chances of winning have dropped, but she is still in with a chance.

    And, honestly, if Mcdormand or Kirby win BAFTA the race will be even closer and I would not count anyone out on winning.

     

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    Elazul
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    #1204178828

    Hun, Holly Hunter outacted that Bassett over the top mess.

    I agree but it’s dangerous to say it out loud here.

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    abelfenty
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    #1204178830

    BAFTA: Bukky Bakray
    Oscar: Andra Day

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1204178833

    Honestly, what I see is very clear: Some people did not like Davis’ performance, can therefore not imagine anyone else liking it, are therefore trying to come up with dumb reasons as to why she won SAG, and therefore do not think she’s really in this race at the Oscars. Just accept that people like this performance more than you thought they would.

    Hun, you knew it was name check. Stop acting like she really deserved it after being denied by everyone else. She’s never lost a SAG award since doubt. You don’t have to do mental gymnastics to figure out the organization just loves her for whatever she does.

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