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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 44)

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    Thatcher, Prime Minister of GoldDerby
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    #1204185920

    Plus, I would be curious as to why people think Carey Mulligan would single-handedly snatch the “international vote”. Pieces of a Woman, for example, has more European sensibilities than Promising Young Woman does, so what if Kirby also gets a push from international voters? I know PYW has been doing much better overall, but I need a convincing argument as to why Mulligan would be the only beneficiary.

    Darling, Pregnant is snatching some international votes but the most beneficiary ones will be NomadDormand and Avenger and Grillz and Cheap Billie Holiday will suffer as their performances appeal more to local voters.

    As a famous singer said, "ain't nobody gonna Thatcher, Thatcher, Thatcher!"

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    George Ehret
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    #1204185927

    I do. I’m not at all confident that she’ll win, and I keep going back and forth in my mind between her and Viola, but I remind myself that actors make up only 14% of AMPAS voters, and that given that she has won SAG before while losing the Oscar for the same performance, I think there’s a chance that Viola is a little bit more popular with other actors than she is with non-actor Academy voters. I may change my vote down the line, but for the time being, I’m still sticking with Carey.

    This isn’t my reasoning for sticking with Carey, but your case is interesting.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    George Ehret
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    #1204185929

    Plus, I would be curious as to why people think Carey Mulligan would single-handedly snatch the “international vote”. Pieces of a Woman, for example, has more European sensibilities than Promising Young Woman does, so what if Kirby also gets a push from international voters? I know PYW has been doing much better overall, but I need a convincing argument as to why Mulligan would be the only beneficiary.

    She wouldn’t be, but I think it’s more about her film being bigger and more well-liked. At least that’s how I look at it

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    DCurrie
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    #1204185931

    This is exactly it. For some reason Viola only needs to break wind and she wins a SAG. I can’t think of another person who’s won so many across film and tv. This nonsense that she somehow needs to win in Lead as well surely won’t translate with the Academy voters. I think SAG voters have an odd fixation with her and it won’t translate. SAG loves giving POC wins too. Mulligan and Day still ahead at the Oscars for me.

    The only nonsense is you stating people of color being given wins, as though it’s some consolation prize, or SAG is pacifying them by giving them a win cuz AMAPAS or NATAS won’t. If they’re deserving, then they are, and we all know that’s subjective.
    Secondly, Day & Mulligan can very well win. But if you’re underestimating anyone else, and especially Viola, well then we already know what’s that is about…

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    Luca
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    #1204185937

    I love it when people say that Viola won because SAG loves to reward POC, when all ensemble and TV winners this year were White.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204185942

    Viola absolutely deserves a second Oscar. But for me personally, I don’t think it should be for Ma Rainey’s. Will I be upset if she wins? Not at all. Will I predict her? Maybe when it gets closer to the Oscars I will, but I’m not right now. Can she win? 100%

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    George Ehret
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    #1204185944

    I love it when people say that Viola won because SAG loves to reward POC, when all ensemble and TV winners this year were White.

    Every winner last year was white lmao

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    Luca
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    #1204185950

    Minus the Parasite cast, yes. People are tripping all over themselves trying to come up with explanations as to why Viola won. The only one I can understand is that they just love her, but 1) you don’t win a lead statuette based on solely that and 2) on its own, even that says a lot about the respect this industry has for her.

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    Rachel615
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    #1204185956

    Plus, I would be curious as to why people think Carey Mulligan would single-handedly snatch the “international vote”…. I know PYW has been doing much better overall, but I need a convincing argument as to why Mulligan would be the only beneficiary.

    FWIW, I definitely don’t think that Mulligan will  “single-handedly snatch the ‘international  vote,'” (emphasis added), but as of now, I don’t think she would need to in order to win the Oscar.

    And by the way, I think the suggestion that “Viola only needs to break wind and she wins a SAG” is absurd and offensive.  My thinking that she may be a bit more popular with actors than with non-actor AMPAS voters is not at all the same as thinking that if she wins, Viola wouldn’t be a deserving Oscar winner.  I continue to believe that all five Best Actress Oscar nominees would be worthy winners– it’s an exceptional year in this category.

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    Ryusei
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    #1204185958

    Idk what to do here, there is a case that could be made for everyone (at least if Vanessa wins BAFTA otherwise she’s more out of question than she already is)

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    George Ehret
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    #1204185960

    I forgot about Parasite for a second, thanks for reminding me.

    And yes, I do think that does say more than just they do love her a lot, but the point made earlier about actors only making up 14% of the Academy says something too. It was more than just awarding POC cause even if Carey won, you still have Youn Yuh-jung, Chadwick Boseman, and Daniel Kaluuya there. So like-

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    George Ehret
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    #1204185964

    And by the way, I think the suggestion that “Viola only needs to break wind and she wins a SAG” is absurd and offensive.

    What does it even mean to break wind what the absolute fuck? Doesn’t make sense to me

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    boredandricho (they/them)
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    #1204185972

    so now viola only won sag because they love awarding poc? the lengths people go in this thread honestly…

    no one is ruling out mulligan when we say viola has a buzz rn

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    George Ehret
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    #1204185978

    Idk what to do here, there is a case that could be made for everyone (at least if Vanessa wins BAFTA otherwise she’s more out of question than she already is)

    I’m predicting Carey because I have this gut feeling that the British block is gonna come through for her and there is a tendency to default to Best Picture nominees in close races. It is close between her and Viola, but my gut tells me Carey, and my gut is usually right (Black Panther, Olivia Colman, Parasite winning Best Picture, etc). So I’m going with my gut

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    Crackleking
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    #1204185994

    While SAG was great for Viola and CC kept Mulligan in the picture, I think we are underestimating Day, just like at the globes. Her film has a 86% audience rating on RT and could appeal well to older members as well as giving the most baity performance.

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