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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 44)

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1204186005

    Darling, Pregnant is snatching some international votes but the most beneficiary ones will be NomadDormand and Avenger and Grillz and Cheap Billie Holiday will suffer as their performances appeal more to local voters.

    Exactly Madame Prime Minister. The Grillz and Cheap Billie Holliday will get the local vote.

    Mulligan will get the international vote. And the reason why we’re saying that is encause she won that international vote at AACTA against McDormand, Viola and Kirby.

    The same way Streep, Colman, Cotillard, Rylance won it.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204186007

    I don’t think that movie or Day herself have international support. Mulligan and PYW definitely do, Davis herself does but I’m not sure about Ma Rainey’s. I feel like Day is a Globes Gonna Globe situation

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1204186024

    Every winner last year was white lmao

    Hun, There was no clear black alternative.

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    Crackleking
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    #1204186034

    I do agree that USVBH and to the same extent Ma Rainey do lack international appeal but the performances themselves are quite universally appealing. I can’t imagine that international voters aren’t at least impressed with Day’s performance, even though it may not appeal to their sensibilities. So this is what might bring her over the edge

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1204186038

    I don’t think that movie or Day herself have international support. Mulligan and PYW definitely do, Davis herself does but I’m not sure about Ma Rainey’s. I feel like Day is a Globes Gonna Globe situation

    Hun, Ma Rainey flopped internationally. No one saw it outside of the U.S. it’s probably why it did so terribly with BAFTA nominations. Those international voters are definitely not feeling the film The same way the local Extras, Djs and weather casters did.

    With Fences she benefitted from being the takeaway from the film and she swept that’s why she won.

    This time around it’s basically reverse Chadwick is the takeaway and Viola is Denzel. She couldn’t even get BAFTA nom with the POC 7 voter jury.

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1204186046

    I do agree that USVBH and to the same extent Ma Rainey do lack international appeal but the performances themselves are quite universally appealing. I can’t imagine that international voters aren’t at least impressed with Day’s performance, even though it may not appeal to their sensibilities. So this is what might bring her over the edge

    I actually think the international voters aren’t even watching USVBillieHolliday.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204186049

    Well then visibility. Ma Rainey’s doesn’t have a visibility issue. Day is the sole nomination for her film, which is bad news in close races most of the time because it means not everyone has seen the film. No international voting body has paid any attention to USvBH that I know of, at least in the nomination phase. So I don’t know what support Day really has

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    wolfali
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    #1204186059

    Viola only won SAG because they love awarding POC

    All the television winners were white…

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    esteban
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    #1204186077

    Andra Day is presenting at the BAFTAs.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204186144

    All the television winners were white…

    This. And most of SAG Ensemble winner.

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    Novic
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    #1204186149

    Andra Day is presenting at the BAFTAs.

    Andra Day is a threat as long as she is visible and promoting her film so good for her.

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    Justmimusicmon
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    #1204186151

    Andra gives one of my favorite performances in this category this year. But people thinking this will be easy street for her are looking through some huge rose colored glasses. She may be promoting her ass off, but the one thing the Academy has remained consistent with is its very difficult for a newcomer to the acting arena to swoop in and win. Especially against major heavy hitters in Best Actress. Stefani Germanotta couldn’t pull it off a couple of years ago. We really think it’s going to be that easy for Andra??

    Oh, and did I forget to mention “A Star Is Born” went into the ceremony with far more nominations?

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    wolfali
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    #1204186158

    This. And most of SAG Ensemble winner.

    And both the television ensemble winners were all white casts.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204186166

    Andra Day is a threat as long as she is visible and promoting her film so good for her.

    True though there’s campaigning and there’s campaigning. I recently spotted EW Oscars 2021 cover featuring Davis, Zhao and Regina King (????). Why is King on the Oscars 2021 cover instead of Day and/or Fennell? She missed nominations in Picture and Director, while Fennel made it for both and Day made it in Actress. Yet somehow, the actual nominees were snubbed while a non-nominee got in. So I’d say this is quite deliberate Vote For Davis and Vote for Zhao cover on EW part. They know that King is no threat to Zhao (no one is so Fennell could have been on it) but Day is a threat to Davis. They chose their side.

    Point being, does Day have a prominent media outlet that campaigns for her? She can do only that much by herself but question is how big a reach meet and greet (including being a presenter) does vs having something like EW invite voters to her cause.

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1204186170

    Andra gives one of my favorite performances in this category this year. But people thinking this will be easy street for her are looking through some huge rose colored glasses. She may be promoting her ass off, but the one thing the Academy has remained consistent with is its very difficult for a newcomer to the acting arena to swoop in and win. Especially against major heavy hitters in Best Actress. Stefani Germanotta couldn’t pull it off a couple of years ago. We really think it’s going to be that easy for Andra??

    Oh, and did I forget to mention “A Star Is Born” went into the ceremony with far more nominations?

    Hun, what Lady Gaga did is NOTHING compared to the brilliance of Andra Day performance.

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