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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 45)

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    gorman
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    #1204194102

    I don’t know if we can look back at history and actually see a pattern for this year. Especially with the BAFTA rule changes.

    This is probably fair. Had the BAFTA used their past system we’d possibly have had someone win two precursors (Davis or Mulligan), which your stats indicate is quite important. This year breaks precedents because the split is such that nobody has won more than one. I guess your stats indicate SAG is probably the most vital. The Globe win also seems significant, but then you have to weigh up how significant it is that Day missed BAFTA’s longlist and the SAG 5, and didn’t win the CC. McDormand and Mulligan have the most critical backing, and the two most popular films with voters. Basically, it’s a near-total shot in the dark, aside from the fact you’re probably safe putting Kirby in fifth.

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    iWantTheGold
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    #1204194104

    Vanessa Kirby is gonna shock the world and win now right?

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    SN
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    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204194106

    Since my favorite here (Kirby) is clearly last, GO ANDRA!

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    Philip
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    #1204194150

    Then WTF are you talking about? You wrote that you “haven’t seen Mulligan out there nearly as much as Davis and Day.” She’s out there and getting publicity for, and interviewed about, her numerous appearances.

    Her press is mostly for her SNL appearance. THAT’S what I’m talking about. Whereas Davis and Day are only out there speaking about their films and their work in those films. Jesus.

    #12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.

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    Milk Money
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    #1204194180

    Lol. The worst excuse

    Um, not really when you consider what helped the last black woman to win here.

    The word going around HW at the time was that Denzel was pretty much a lock for his Oscar after the Crowe fiasco at BAFTA. Halle, whose chances were more evenly split with Sissy Spacek, benefited from this as well as voters wanted to see them win together.

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    Lucas
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    #1204194185

    Truth be told, *Brenda Blethyn got robbed. And I love Fargo.

    *Emily Watson got robbed

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    Alan
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    Mar 28th, 2021
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    #1204194192

    Girl shouldn’t left this award season empty-handed and BAFTA knew it.

     

    Four-time Academy Award winner Frances McDormand

    Two-time Academy Award winner Anthony Hopkins

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    Ki
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    Oct 1st, 2018
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    #1204194213

    The jury system really ruined things for us. Unless Kirby wins, we won’t know until the Oscar is announced who had the most support between Mulligan, McDormand, Davis and Day. I have a strong hunch Mulligan or Davis would’ve won if the jury wasn’t in place. Davis could have more support from Oscar voters than Boseman, maybe Mulligan is the actual front runner or maybe Andra’s problem really was the late screeners but we’ll never because of the Jury. This race is just so messy…..

    Oscars 2021
    FYC: Best Actress: Viola Davis/Andra Day
    FYC: Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    FYC: Best Director: Chloe Zhao

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    Oscirus Jones
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    #1204194235

    She was on Fallon because all the SNL hosts do Fallon before their show. She’s not getting as much press as Davis or Day.

    I guess Kaluuyas invitation for last week was lost in the mail.  Why make such an easily debunked claim?

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    DaKardii
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    #1204194249

    Post-BAFTA, both Kirby and Mulligan are done. Kirby needed the BAFTA, and Mulligan needed to have someone who was not McDormand win the BAFTA.

    The race is now down to Davis vs. McDormand. Right now, I’m predicting McDormand. But that could change if Davis wins the ISA.

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    Philip
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    #1204194259

    I guess Kaluuyas invitation for last week was lost in the mail. Why make such an easily debunked claim?

    Daniel was just on Fallon like a month before he hosted. So, no, it wouldn’t make sense for him to do the show again.

    Almost all SNL hosts go on fallon.

    #12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.

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    TVFan365
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    #1204194263

    But that could change if Davis wins the ISA.

    The Spirit Awards have no influence on the Oscar race whatsoever.

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    estrelas
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    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1204194273

    The jury system really ruined things for us. Unless Kirby wins, we won’t know until the Oscar is announced who had the most support between Mulligan, McDormand, Davis and Day. I have a strong hunch Mulligan or Davis would’ve won if the jury wasn’t in place. Davis could have more support from Oscar voters than Boseman, maybe Mulligan is the actual front runner or maybe Andra’s problem really was the late screeners but we’ll never because of the Jury. This race is just so messy…..

    Highly doubt Viola would’ve won BAFTA. Chadwick couldn’t even win Actor. I don’t see how she would’ve won without him tbh. But this is just my opinion.

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    gabspss
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    #1204194281

    I’ve been looking at past years where there isn’t a clear frontrunner or a split in Golden Globe/BAFTA/SAG and I’m trying to see if there happens to be any kind of pattern but I’m not sure if there is. What do you all think?

    1999
    Golden Globe: Hilary Swank/Janet McTeer
    LAFCA: Hilary Swank
    NSFC: Reese Witherspoon
    NYFCC: Hilary Swank
    SAG: Annette Benning
    Critics Choice: Hilary Swank
    Oscar: Hilary Swank

    1998
    Golden Globe: Gwyneth Paltrow/Cate Blanchett
    LAFCA: Fernanda Montenegro/Ally Sheedy
    NSFC: Ally Sheedy
    NYFCC: Cameron Diaz
    SAG: Gwyneth Paltrow
    Critics Choice: Cate Blanchett
    Oscar: Gwyneth Paltrow

    1997
    Golden Globe: Helen Hunt/Judi Dench
    LAFCA: Helena Bonham Carter
    NSFC: Julie Christie
    NYFCC: Julie Christie
    SAG: Helen Hunt
    Critics Choice: Helena Bonham Carter
    Oscar: Helen Hunt

    1996
    Golden Globe: Brenda Blethyn
    NYFCC: Emily Watson
    NSFC: Emily Watson
    LAFCA: Brenda Blethyn
    SAG: Frances McDormand
    Critics Choice: Frances McDormand
    Oscar: Frances McDormand

    1995
    Golden Globe: Sharon Stone
    LAFCA: Elisabeth Shue
    NSFC: Elisabeth Shue
    NYFCC: Jennifer Jason Leigh
    SAG: Susan Sarandon
    Oscar: Susan Sarandon

    1994
    Golden Globe: Jessica Lange
    LAFCA: Jessica Lange
    NSFC: Jennifer Jason Leigh
    NYFCC: Linda Fiorentino
    SAG: Jodie Foster
    Oscar: Jessica Lange

    I changed from BAFTA to the Trifecta Awards before 2001, because back then BAFTA wasn’t a precursor and these critics associations mattered much more.

    It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!

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    Philip
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    #1204194285

    Highly doubt Viola would’ve won BAFTA. Chadwick couldn’t even win Actor. I don’t see how she would’ve won without him tbh. But this is just my opinion.

    It could have been one of those things where they were voting for Hopkins, so they decided they were gonna give Davis their vote, but that probably wasn’t gonna happen. The only thing BAFTAS has shown is is that Kirby is dead in the water.

    #12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.

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