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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 45)

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    #1204195454
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    mi_gi_1988
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    #1204195456

    Oscar votes are so unpredictable. I remember in 2019 even w/ Shallow being a smash, I was insecure about the win.

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    Kafka_Gyllenhaal
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    #1204195461

    Any “audience” polls are likely to be wrong. I remember a Today Show survey the day of the Oscars a few years ago had J.K. Simmons in last place. LAST.

    The NYT poll was actually pretty on the spot with a lot of the other categories, although there were a couple other weird ones…

    But how do you get Simmons wrong!?

    FYC: Minari for Everything

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    wolfali
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    #1204195463

    I think with these audience polls you have to factor in who those voting for these are familiar with. Viola Davis is a household name. Frances McDormand is to an extent also familiar with audiences. People like Carey Mulligan and Olivia Colman are famous in the UK but that isn’t really the case in the US (although I guess that might be changing for Colman a bit soon because of The Crown and Fleabag).

    I remember Rotten Tomatoes did an audience poll last year of who will win in each category and people voted for ScarJo for Actress and Joker for Makeup and Hair presumably because the general public hadn’t heard of Judy and Bombshell.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    SN
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    #1204195499

    Call me crazy but I think we could have a Cotillard/Colman scenario here. It’s pretty clear that Mulligan would’ve won BAFTA had the jury nominated her. We’ll never know what would’ve happened if Cotillard and Colman were competing in Drama at the Globes, but there’s a chance they would’ve lost, specially Colman due to Glenn’s overdue narrative.

    In an alternative world where PYW competed in comedy at the Globes and the BAFTA jury system doesn’t exist, Mulligan would be the frontrunner, since she would’ve the same precursors Casey Affleck had 4 years ago, only losing SAG.

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    Novic
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    #1204195517

    EXPERTS Votes

    #1 Carey 13 (+2)

    #2 Viola 5 (-2)

    #3 Andra (5)

    #4 Frances (2)

    #5 Kirby 0

    I am always so surprised by Carey being so consistently 1st. How did Viola end up losing votes? Lol.

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    lhdang2000
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    #1204195530

    The HFPA really played PYM. Until now, I still don’t get how Marla Grayson is a comedic role but Cassandra Thomas is a dramatic role or why ICAL is considered comedy but PYM is not when they have the same tone and everything.

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    VictorJR
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    #1204195539

    I think it should be Viola. I really think that the Academy won’t award in Best Actress a white woman this year. Even though she’s in the Best Picture winner, there’s no need to reward McDormand for a third time, plus she’s winning as a producer. Also, I believe that McDormand will take quite a few votes from Mulligan. Carey has lost the Globe and SAG. She’s in a strong movie, but to reward another white actress this year, taking into account that just one black woman has won a Best Actress Oscar… And who deserves it more than Viola? Maybe not for this role, but there’s no one more deserving than Davis to follow Halle Berry. Viola already has a painful lost against Streep. Plus Netflix is in Viola’s side. Honestly think that Mulligan is not as strong as we think, she should’ve won more than Critics’ Choice + AACT by now. Day could win, and will snatch votes from Viola, but she’s young and not really an actress per se. Her Globes win was important but I think Davis should be stronger within the black vote.

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    wolfali
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    #1204195543

    The Best Actress race right now:

    Vanessa Kirby in last place in this race and with her Volpi Cup:

    Frances McDormand on April 25th:

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    ENGLAND
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    #1204195597

    I wonder if it I’d possible that McDormand will pull a Katharine Hepburn and win her 3rd after only winning BAFTA. That would be shocking.

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    mi_gi_1988
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    #1204195607

    I wonder if it I’d possible that McDormand will pull a Katharine Hepburn and win her 3rd after only winning BAFTA. That would be shocking.

    I can see it. For me, it’s among Carey and Frances.

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    Oscirus Jones
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    #1204195638

    The race is clearly between davis and mulligan.

    Vanessa has won nothing, so I cant justify her being in the race.

    The globes were so weak this year they only managed to get one of their female winners nommed this year.  Only reason why people are still giving attention to Day is pure hope.

    Mcdormand hasn’t beaten the competitive lineup this year, so Im gonna go ahead and say her chances are slim to none.

     

    So Davis or Mulligan?  Right now Id say Mulligan is favored but I wont eliminate Davis either. I dont think Promising Young woman winning the british bafta tells us as much as Mulligan fans would like to think.

    Also the Brody narrative that people are trying to push works for Kirby and Day as well, I doubt thats even a real thing.

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    ENGLAND
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    #1204195642

    Vanessa is the only one that has not won a televised award. The way this season is going, she may get the Oscar. This season is becoming so much fun!!

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    mi_gi_1988
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    #1204195648

    Why Queen Kirby fans saying she’s getting the Oscar

    That does not make sense, in my opinion

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    Milk Money
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    #1204195667

    Viola won the Black Reel Award (over Andra Day) last night BTW!

    It should be noted that Day won Best Breakthrough.

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