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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 45)

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    Lucas
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    #1204196942

    It’s been a while since Berry has been to the Oscars, no?

    She presented Director in 2017.

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    crabbie
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    #1204196948

    She presented Director in 2017.

    Thanks didn’t know that. That was the year Moonlight won and Viola Davis won..hmm. I wonder what category she will present this year.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    lhdang2000
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    #1204196951

    But voting hasn’t even opened yet. How does the show know who will win to begin this narrative with inviting King, Zendaya and Berry? With King and Berry as Oscar winners and Zendaya as one of the new it girls, I think they’d be invited anyway.

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    Novic
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    #1204196956

    We are looking for signs from the universe to predict this category. Lol.

    Joaquin Phoenix is presenting Best Actress and PYW is considered a movie in the vain of Joker. 🤔

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    crabbie
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    #1204196958

    Yeah I’m just not going to think about this category anymore. At least we will be on the edge of our seats the whole night for this category.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Jason Travis
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    #1204196991

    Isn’t this insane? LIKE Literally I have changed my pick to McDormand, Then Davis, then Mulligan and now Day. And I have NEVER EVER done this in this short amount of time before, and voting hasn’t even started? Hmmmmm. So many voters ARE going to watch The Father, and possibly pick Hopkins now. However, many voters ARE going to be protective of Chadwick, and want him to make it to the finish line. So Hopkins winning the BAFTA could possibly cause guilt among members, who now feel obligation as I talked about before.

    However, I still think passion gets you to the podium. And so does sympathy. Because remember Ben Affleck (if you’re reading this buddy, I LOVE your work! I just need to reflect haha). He won for Argo out of rage and pity, not necessarily passion. Because Tony Kushner’s script for Lincoln is unmatched. It’s poetry. And I did like Argo’s script too- fresh, fast, funny. But Kushner started losing once the Poor Ben narrative began, and Lincoln was doomed to just win Actor & Art Direction. That’s not BAD doom, per say, but many thought the snubs of Affleck and Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) were some sort of measure to get Spilberg and his movie Best Pic & Director wins. So they basically blocked the other two. Those Director nominations were SO odd that year. And I know there are only I think 800 voters or so in director? But still, they usually have one wild card, maybe two. This was like three, I think because even Tom Hooper was thought to be an easy nominee for Les Miserables.

    The one actress I keep going back to is Caren Mulligan. I thought it was Day, but no. My mind just keeps hearing Phoenix’s voice saying “Care Mulligan”. Now I had these same instincts when Regina King won, and many thought with no SAG or BAFTA, she couldn’t do it. She did. Now that’s not bragging, just a second (Judge Judy voice). Just a second. I also go back to Andra Day, but then I see Davis taking votes if we’re going the political route. So Mulligan still has the Critics Choice (not as big as the other three precursors, but still). She’s in a best picture nominee, 5 nods- other branches (including director) praised it. She’s campaigning hard. But what about Frances McDormand??? Still will BE in the best pic winner and it’s ABOUT a woman’s strength. If anyone can win 3 leads, it’s this woman. And BAFTA snubbing Mulligan but giving her film praise rings odd too. And so I don’t know!!! Man I need some KFC now.

    Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
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    FYC: Anthony Hopkins, The Father

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    Aurelius
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    #1204197028

    Joaquin Phoenix.

    Phoenix = bird

    Birds come out at the beginning of the day.

    Day

    A sign for Andra Day!

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    Jason Travis
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    #1204197030

    I want to add this-

    This is a LONG Season right? We are used to rushed winter seasons, where there’s PRESSURE to pick the “general consensus”. Back in the 90s, or even I believe 2002-03 was a year where originally Julianne Moore was the favorite for Far From Heaven, then SAG AND Globe winner Renee Zellweger for Chicago, and Nicole “by a nose” still wins for The Hours. The Pianist had time to catch up to Chicago, winning Director, Adapted Screenplay and Best Actor upsets and I guarantee, almost won best film. A week longer and I think Polanski’s masterpiece would have won.

    Kidman also won Drama at the Globes, and that BAFTA award that still sits in front of us spinning, reminding us that they are often the KEY to those “upset” wins when SAG and Globe split. And in this case, is it then McDormand? Sigh- and the pattern continues. It’s like Groundhog Day.

    Typing out loud here- I just think Andra Day would be the winner if they go political and want a black woman to win again. And her performance DOES have better passion then Viola Davis. However, Davis is more popular, and she won the SAG. And Day couldn’t get in. But her character is not likable. Day plays Billie Holliday. Playing a real life character is always an asset. And the film, like Judy last year where Zellweger wins for playing the music legend, isn’t that liked. BUT the performance is. And does Day do her own singing? I need to know, as Zellweger did. Is it hammed up? Absolutely, the academy loves ham. So I think again, both women will snatch their own crowns – leaving the door open to that third upset.

    Will the academy, if in their obligated passion, make two white lead actors win? I hate that it has to even be discussed, but again 2020 was a VERY important year for our democracy – and women’s rights and racism were BIG BIG BIG on the list. A female driven film directed by an incredible woman, is the favorite to win best picture. This IS feeling very political. However, I say it also feels up in the air and voters may just check off who they want. They won’t feel ANY pressure in the best actress category because its all or nothing. So they vote with their passions. Who has the most?? It’s Carey.

    In best actor, Riz Ahmed could easily sneak in with an upset if Hopkins and Boseman split votes. Sound of Metal is also peaking very fast, and no one is complaining about Ahmed- who is Britsh Pakistani- and gives a great performance on top of being of foreign descent. But young men winning best actor is a challenge. 38 is young for a man in the lead category. Now correct me if that’s changed because yes, Rami Malek won recently. However, he was still late 30s. Adrien Brody is the youngest best actor winner at 29.

    Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
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    FYC: Anthony Hopkins, The Father

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    crabbie
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    #1204197036

    Anyone know the stat of the last time Actor and Actress won without both actors being in Best Picture nominees?

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    ENGLAND
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    #1204197039

    Carey honestly should have won the Globe in Comedy. I don’t understand them submitting the film to Drama.
    I have a feeling many in Hollywood do not take the Comedy Globes serious, so they all fight for the Drama Globe.

    I slightly feel the same way about the Emmys. I feel that they appreciate the Comedy categories but,to win Drama, that is the automate prize.

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    SN
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    #1204197042

    Anyone know the stat of the last time Actor and Actress won without both actors being in Best Picture nominees?

    2001: Denzel Washington and Halle Berry

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    George Ehret
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    #1204197125

    Glad to see that everyone’s just as confused as me lmao

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    lhdang2000
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    #1204197184

    Carey honestly should have won the Globe in Comedy. I don’t understand them submitting the film to Drama. I have a feeling many in Hollywood do not take the Comedy Globes serious, so they all fight for the Drama Globe. I slightly feel the same way about the Emmys. I feel that they appreciate the Comedy categories but,to win Drama, that is the automate prize.

    I believe PYM was submitted to Comedy and HFPA moved it to Drama, which is why I sad HFPA played the whole film both cast and crew.

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    Yiploo
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    #1204197233

    Joaquin’s fiancée Rooney Mara’s sister Kate Mara played Michelle Williams and Heath Ledger (Joker)’s daughter in Brokeback Mountain. And as we all know, Michelle Williams is Carey Mulligan. So It’s Carey.

    A Fervent Believer in the Church of Two-Time Academy Award Winner Viola Davis.

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    tennesseestellamccartney
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    #1204197314

    Kind of interesting that Katharine Hepburn never won a Golden Globe… the most awarded actor at the Oscars male or female, yet she did it without the Globe, four times. Pretty legendary if you ask me. Also, proves that the Globes are irrelevant at the end of the day? Maybe now they’ve gained more influence with the Oscars.

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