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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 46)

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    George Ehret
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    #1204199433

    Not that it would make a difference in this race, (and excuse my ignorance) but have we seen any celebs make any passionate posts about any of this year’s nominees?

    I know that the PYW Instagram account put praises from Elizabeth Banks on their story, but I’m not sure if she’s an Academy voter or not. As far as I know that’s the only one

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    wolfali
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    #1204199449

    I know that the PYW Instagram account put praises from Elizabeth Banks on their story, but I’m not sure if she’s an Academy voter or not. As far as I know that’s the only one

    I’ve seen praises for Promising Young Woman from not only Banks but also Reese Witherspoon, Kerry Washington, Ben Stiller, Seth Rogen, Judd Apatow, Glenn Close, Amy Schumer, Richard Curtis and many others.

    Whilst I won’t count it as a “show of support for the film”, Gugu Mbatha-Raw was awfully cheery when <i>Promising Young Woman</i> won British Film at the BAFTAs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUcPaJQ9SCQ

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    wolfali
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    #1204199452

    I didn’t realise that Ma Rainey won at CDG… Ok maybe I need to rethink my Davis prediction.

    I think one of McDormand and Mulligan are the Sally Hawkins in this race (most acclaimed performance of the year in a top 2 BP contender that doesn’t go along for the ride) but I can’t tell which one is “the Hawkins”.

    Maybe I should just do what I did the last time I was this uncertain about a prediction and rank the category by my personal preference lol. When I did that at the Emmys in 2018 it surprisingly worked out in that category…

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    SN
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    #1204199457

    Regina King surprised Andra Day in her hotel. Hillary Clinton made several tweets about Day. Whoopi and Oprah talked about Day on their show.

    And Beyonce sent flowers to her saying “you made us proud”

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    George Ehret
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    #1204199464

    I think one of McDormand and Mulligan are the Sally Hawkins in this race

    Ironic considering McDormand was in that race lmfao

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    iWantTheGold
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    #1204199621

    Okay, I just have a gut they aren’t going to do that to Chadwick’s wife. I just think that would be too harsh. Am I wrong to think this? I know it’s about performance, but in this day and age- I just can’t see the voters snatching away an award when the widow is in the audience waiting to accept.

    CURRENT LEADING PREDICTIONS:

    BEST ACTOR: Chadwick Boseman
    BEST ACTRESS: Frances McDormand

    That could definitely be the tip-off. They would probably get more shit for that than him losing, so someone would probably tell his family to stay home if that’s the case.

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    crabbie
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    #1204199629

    That could definitely be the tip-off. They would probably get more shit for that than him losing, so someone would probably tell his family to stay home if that’s the case.

    The Grammys did this to Mac Miller. It won’t happen at the Oscars tho.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    iWantTheGold
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    #1204199640

    Finally saw US v. Billie Holiday.

    I will say, I was mighty impressed with Day, that role was baity as fuck but she delivered big time. Movie isn’t as bad as everyone makes it out to be either, in all honesty. Daniels is definitely a bizarre schlock-maestro of a director, but at least the movie had a personality.

    So here’s how I’m seeing it:

    This is ultimately going to come down to who steals more votes from who. After seeing what Day did, I’m convinced votes that normally would be going to Davis in this situation will go to Day, to the point where maybe Davis will be the one who “steals” votes from Day.

    Mulligan is in a similar situation in that Kirby is the one who will be taking votes away from her. However, I’m convinced that a much bigger split will occur between Davis/Day.

    SO, it’s going to come down to how many Nomadland voters also end up voting for McDormand. I do think those who won’t will probably end up voting for Davis (or possibly Kirby), so then it will come down to how many votes Day took away from Davis.

    If the Davis/Day split is minor, and Nomadland voters don’t want to vote for McDormand, I think Viola comes out on top.

    If the Nomadland voters say fuck it, McDormand’s the movie, I don’t care if she just recently won/this will give her three, she will win based on passion for her movie (which I think is taking Picture easily, possibly on the first ballot).

    If the Davis/Day split is major (which I now believe it will be), but a decent amount of Nomadland voters decide to vote for Davis, I think Mulligan will come out on top based on the British vote/her passionate minority. If this happens it will be by a hair.

    Day (improbably) winning will come down to basically all of Davis’ potential voters voting for her instead, which I don’t think is going to happen. I also doubt any Nomadland people would vote for her because they won’t want to give the award to a performance from a “bad” movie. Kirby winning would be a miracle resulting from a ton of Nomadland votes going to her (she has a similar “bad” movie problem, so I just don’t see it).

    So I’m going with Mulligan. I think her support bloc is the most stable, and the notorious “British Vote” will put her over the top.

    I don’t feel good about it.

    This Oscar season needs to end.

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    jez89
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    #1204199759

    Carey needed more than the British bloc for that type of performance which is why I cannot predict her. I blame the Globes.

    I agree. The Globes and the daft BAFTA jury really screwed Carey over. She should be winning this in a cakewalk.

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    Rachel615
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    #1204199770

    I enjoyed hearing Vanessa Kirby say on James Corden’s show that during the various televised awards ceremonies, when it is around 4:00 a.m. in the morning in England, while sitting around all glammed up staring at a laptop while waiting for their category to be announced, she and Carey Mulligan have been texting each other about how weird the whole thing is. (Apparently, they’re friends and work together as War Child U.K. global ambassadors.)

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    Luca
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    #1204199794

    I wouldn’t say I feel sorry for Vanessa and Carey — for obvious reasons — but I definitely feel with them since I live in Europe as well and am awake at those crazy hours to follow this madness. Unlike them, though, I don’t have to be all glammed up. Vanessa has talked about doing press for POAW and what that’s involved, which is insane. It’s true commitment.

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    Lil Tony
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    #1204199863

    I’m very scared for Carey. Why wasn’t she a frontrunner. I can’t believe Day won the globe over her. Promising young woman is Cassie’s show all the way. She nails her scenes, gives a three-dimensional performance and showed her range and versatility.

    Billie Holiday is all about Andra Day and it’s a very meaty role. If the movie had come out in January with excellent reviews, Day would have had it in the bag. It would have been a done deal. No role in contention is as baity and diverse as Billie Holiday. Y’all are just lucky that this movie didn’t get strong reviews

    A Lady Gaga DEVOTEE

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1204199881

    I’ve been determined not to change from Davis since SAG, but it’s getting tough. Not even because I’m being swayed by arguments for the other nominees (I’m not), but because I’m really struggling with how many Oscars Ma Rainey will win. Going 4/5 with both lead acting awards (but losing in Production Design of all places) is just so unprecedented for a non-BP nominee.

    Anyone who manages to predict Actress and exactly which categories that film takes should be near the top of the leaderboard.

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    crabbie
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    #1204199887

    I’ve been determined not to change from Davis since SAG, but it’s getting tough. Not even because I’m being swayed by arguments for the other nominees (I’m not), but because I’m really struggling with how many Oscars Ma Rainey will win. Going 4/5 with both lead acting awards (but losing in Production Design of all places) is just so unprecedented for a non-BP nominee. Anyone who manages to predict Actress and exactly which categories that film takes should be near the top of the leaderboard.

    Honestly the argument of Best Actor and Best Actress winning without a Best Picture nomination was never that compelling to me since Viola Davis is a thespian that would win no matter what. What’s concerning to me however is Ma Rainey going 4/5 which honors the film’s strengths moreso than Davis and I cannot see that happening for a film that missed Picture and Screenplay. Winning 2 above the line categories and 2 techs, potentially surpassing Nomadland’s awards or even tying with its award count is not feasible to me.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Crackleking
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    #1204199893

    Winning 2 above the line categories and 2 techs, potentially surpassing Nomadland’s awards or even tying with its award count is not feasible to me.

    The two tech categories Ma Rainey could win are very weak categories compared to Nomadland’s, so it isn’t saying much. The acting categories though are a different story. So that’s why I think at best only Boseman or Davis win but not both. I’m personally leaning that neither win and Hopkins/Day win instead.

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