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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 46)

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    A G Wooding
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    #1204199931

    Honestly the argument of Best Actor and Best Actress winning without a Best Picture nomination was never that compelling to me since Viola Davis is a thespian that would win no matter what. What’s concerning to me however is Ma Rainey going 4/5 which honors the film’s strengths moreso than Davis and I cannot see that happening for a film that missed Picture and Screenplay. Winning 2 above the line categories and 2 techs, potentially surpassing Nomadland’s awards or even tying with its award count is not feasible to me.

    Ma Rainey seems strong in costuming but the Hair and Makeup at the Oscar is notorious for going with crazy choices and Ma Rainey seems too normal for them. I’ve got Pinocchio to spoil there.

    I feel at most Ma Rainey will win 2 or 3 but I think anyone worrying about it getting all 4 shouldn’t be, it isn’t a compelling enough reason not to vote for Davis if that’s what you want to do.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204199935

    I just wanna know what support Day actually has. Not talking about support from neoliberal politicians or other singers, what support does she have from the film industry? Are people from the Costume Designers branch (which just gave two of their top prizes to Ma Rainey’s and Promising Young Woman) all of a sudden watching Billie Holiday and changing their votes? The movie doesn’t even have 10k ratings on IMDb. The number is so low, it’s lower than the total AMPAS voter count. And with many voters who are refusing to vote… she just doesn’t have that much support based on the evidence.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    Marcel Carneiro
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    #1204199937

    Billie Holiday is all about Andra Day and it’s a very meaty role. If the movie had come out in January with excellent reviews, Day would have had it in the bag. It would have been a done deal. No role in contention is as baity and diverse as Billie Holiday. Y’all are just lucky that this movie didn’t get strong reviews

    You mean, like, if the movie was good, right?

    The movie didn’t get good reviews because it is… Bad. Getting good or bad reviews isn’t random, it depends on the movie quality

     

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    Kafka_Gyllenhaal
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    #1204200006

    The further on we get with this competition, the more this race feels like trying to find the culprit in a detective story… except there are only five suspects and no material clues pointing to any one contender. Kind of a weird analogy, but I think it works.

    Now if we use the age-old trick of guessing the least likely person, that gives us Kirby. Unfortunately I don’t think this guess will be very reliable come the 25th…

    FYC: Minari for Everything

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    iWantTheGold
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    #1204200075

    I’ve been determined not to change from Davis since SAG, but it’s getting tough. Not even because I’m being swayed by arguments for the other nominees (I’m not), but because I’m really struggling with how many Oscars Ma Rainey will win. Going 4/5 with both lead acting awards (but losing in Production Design of all places) is just so unprecedented for a non-BP nominee.

    Anyone who manages to predict Actress and exactly which categories that film takes should be near the top of the leaderboard.

    That’s another reason why I think it is highly likely that at least one of Davis and Boseman (if not both) are going to lose.

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    iWantTheGold
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    #1204200087

    Another (unfortunate) thing to consider in this race… is the dirty old man vote. Let’s face it, there are many years where the Best Actress race is basically the Actress I’d Most Like to Sleep With award. Having just seen Billie Holiday… she’s naked. A lot. And there’s a whole bunch of fuckin’. Normally I would say Mulligan/Kirby stand to gain the most from the Old Hollywood Pervert vote, but the whole Mulligan role is so anti-that, I could see those deplorable voters being turned off by her, but very turned on by Day. It’s definitely a Wild Card.

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    Novic
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    #1204200098

    Dang. You are all making a serious argument for Day. My problem is just how seen her movie is. But in a split year, she could probably get away with few people seeing her film as long as they are passionate about her.

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    Almond
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    #1204200105

    Can’t wait for all us to go “yeah I knew it” when the winner gets announced

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    George Ehret
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    #1204200197

    Another (unfortunate) thing to consider in this race… is the dirty old man vote. Let’s face it, there are many years where the Best Actress race is basically the Actress I’d Most Like to Sleep With award. Having just seen Billie Holiday… she’s naked. A lot. And there’s a whole bunch of fuckin’. Normally I would say Mulligan/Kirby stand to gain the most from the Old Hollywood Pervert vote, but the whole Mulligan role is so anti-that, I could see those deplorable voters being turned off by her, but very turned on by Day. It’s definitely a Wild Card.

    Has that come to help in split races before? I know Kate Winslet happened, but she was gonna win for that no matter what and AMPAS just switched her category when voting. And while Day does get naked a lot on that movie, that’s not something I can picture a lot of people… you can fill in the blank there. Kirby and Mulligan don’t get naked at all in their movies (hell I don’t even think either of them have ever done nude scenes) and those aren’t movies I imagine people finding “hot” either for obvious reasons. Then again, I don’t really think The Reader is that type of movie either, so maybe that argument does have some weight to it.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1204200217

    The anonymous oscar voters coming through for Carey Mulligan BIG TIME. Told ya AACTA was the Oracle this year.

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    #1204200287
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    SN
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    #1204200297

    Another (unfortunate) thing to consider in this race… is the dirty old man vote. Let’s face it, there are many years where the Best Actress race is basically the Actress I’d Most Like to Sleep With award. Having just seen Billie Holiday… she’s naked. A lot. And there’s a whole bunch of fuckin’. Normally I would say Mulligan/Kirby stand to gain the most from the Old Hollywood Pervert vote, but the whole Mulligan role is so anti-that, I could see those deplorable voters being turned off by her, but very turned on by Day. It’s definitely a Wild Card.

    The last Best Actress winner with nude scenes was Kate Winslet. The last one with sex scenes was Natalie Portman. I don’t see how that logic makes sense.

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    wolfali
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    #1204200314

    Kirby and Mulligan don’t get naked at all in their movies

    Vanessa Kirby is briefly nude in a scene in Pieces of a Woman.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    DCurrie
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    #1204200325

    The likeliness of both losing is pretty unlikely. You might get one wish. But two, doubt it!

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    George Ehret
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    #1204200329

    Mulligan was fully nude in her first scene of Shame.

    I completely forgot about that, and yeah you’re correct.

    The last Best Actress winner with nude scenes was Kate Winslet. The last one with sex scenes was Natalie Portman. I don’t see how that logic makes sense.

    Getting nude for a movie doesn’t always help you with winning an Oscar (nor should it), and I think some voters realize that. Plus, would this help if not enough of these old Herbert from Family Guy types have seen Billie Holiday? Just a thought

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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