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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 46)

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    iWantTheGold
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    #1204200603

    This is dumb and frankly nonsense. Last year people were talking about how nude scenes detract from Oscar success for actresses, this year suddenly they help.

    Sex appeal in general helps. The way I posited my theory really conflated two different points, so I probably should have worded it better.

    Let’s face it, pretty much every ingenue win ever can be reduced to the actress in question being a) young, and b) hot. It sucks, but I was just trying to throw out an intangible that might affect this race. And having said intangible, whether anyone would like to admit it or not, definitely helped Natalie Portman, Jennifer Lawrence, Brie Larson, and Emma Stone over the past decade. Let’s look at who some of those Actresses were up against. Do you REALLY think Emma Stone gave a better performance than Isabelle Huppert (or Viola Davis, who should have been in lead but whose people knew what would happen if she was)? Was Brie Larson REALLY better than Blanchett or Charlotte Rampling? If Actresses were held to the same standard as Actors, Zac Efron probably would have won for his Ted Bundy movie.

    Re: Day, I was mostly thinking about Halle Berry in Monster’s Ball (another mostly panned movie), and how that was a very sexually charged, go-for-broke role, and seeing as that’s the only time the Academy felt like giving the Oscar to black woman, it wouldn’t surprise me if those elements of the performance play a part in Day coming out victorious. If you’ve read any of those “secret ballots”, you would know some of these people aren’t as sophisticated as one might think….

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    crabbie
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    #1204200621

    Was Brie Larson REALLY better than Blanchett or Charlotte Rampling? If Actresses were held to the same standard as Actors, Zack Efron probably would have won for his Ted Bundy movie.

    Well you actually contradicted your point here. Cate Blanchett would benefit from this sex vote since she has lesbian sex with Rooney Mara and these old Academy voters would apparently eat this up and give Blanchett the sex vote which they didn’t. They gave the vote to a traumatized young woman who is freed from her captor after years.

    Also Rooney Mara was Oscarless did show her…nudity in Carol but lost to Alicia Vikander.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204200624

    oh please this whole naked thing is ridiculous. if that’s the case, then that horrible actress in 365 Days will win the Oscar.

    She can’t cause she was completely upstaged by her leading man’s sexface snarl. he should have won Comedy Globe, nothing came close to this in laughs department.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204200656

    Sex appeal in general helps. The way I posited my theory really conflated two different points, so I probably should have worded it better. Let’s face it, pretty much every ingenue win ever can be reduced to the actress in question being a) young, and b) hot. It sucks, but I was just trying to throw out an intangible that might affect this race. And having said intangible, whether anyone would like to admit it or not, definitely helped Natalie Portman, Jennifer Lawrence, Brie Larson, and Emma Stone over the past decade. Let’s look at who some of those Actresses were up against. Do you REALLY think Emma Stone gave a better performance than Isabelle Huppert (or Viola Davis, who should have been in lead but whose people knew what would happen if she was)? Was Brie Larson REALLY better than Blanchett or Charlotte Rampling? If Actresses were held to the same standard as Actors, Zack Efron probably would have won for his Ted Bundy movie. Re: Day, I mostly thinking about Halle Berry in Monster’s Ball (another mostly panned movie), and how that was a very sexually charged, go-for-broke role, and seeing as that’s the only time the Academy felt like giving the Oscar to black woman, it wouldn’t surprise me if those elements of the performance had a part to play in her coming out victorious. If you’ve read any of those “secret ballots”, you would know some of these people aren’t as sophisticated as one might think….

    Clearly just about every critics group and industry body thought Brie Larson was better than Cate Blanchett and Charlotte Rampling, so I’m not sure if that’s a fair comparison. Same goes for Natalie Portman in her year. As far as the rest go, Huppert was the only nomination for her film and Emma was literally the only one in a Best Picture nominee and it just so happened to be the frontrunner. J-Law was just having her moment after Hunger Games coming out the same year. I mean, if you really wanna use the logic of “hot young actress always win”, shouldn’t you use the same logic for Bakalova in her category? I’m not super attracted to her personally, but I know some people who are. Amanda Seyfried has a lot of people who are attracted to her, shouldn’t you consider her as a winner as well?

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    Yiploo
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    #1204200661

    Didn’t Alicia also have nude scenes in The Danish Girl? not that it mattered lol.

    A Fervent Believer in the Church of Two-Time Academy Award Winner Viola Davis.

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    Couverture
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    #1204200663

    Do you REALLY think Emma Stone gave a better performance than Isabelle Huppert (or Viola Davis, who should have been in lead but whose people knew what would happen if she was)? Was Brie Larson REALLY better than Blanchett or Charlotte Rampling?

    Yes

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    George Ehret
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    #1204200665

    Didn’t Alicia also have nude scenes in The Danish Girl? not that it mattered lol.

    She did.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    iWantTheGold
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    #1204200673

    Well you actually contradicted your point here. Cate Blanchett would benefit from this sex vote since she has lesbian sex with Rooney Mara and these old Academy voters would apparently eat this up and give Blanchett the sex vote which they didn’t. They gave the vote to a traumatized young woman who is freed from her captor after years.

    Also Rooney Mara was Oscarless did show her…nudity in Carol but lost to Alicia Vikander.

    Right, except Blanchett was 46 so they wouldn’t care. In Day’s individual case, she’d win because she was great in the role, but in a race that is maybe going to be the closest one ever, I felt it was worth noting that that intangible MIGHT be what makes the difference. There are a lot of old men in this academy who don’t really give a shit and just vote for actresses based on sex appeal. It’s reality.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204200688

    Right, except Blanchett was 46 so they wouldn’t care. In Day’s individual case, she’d win because she was great in the role, but in a race that is maybe going to be the closest one ever, I felt it was worth noting that that intangible MIGHT be what makes the difference. There are a lot of old men in this academy who don’t really give a shit and just vote for actresses based on sex appeal. It’s reality.

    Andra is 36, which is still older than the winner you used in your example. Carey is only 6 months younger, and while she doesn’t have nude scenes in PYW she is very attractive (at least for me she is, and I think she’s prettier than some of the women Hollywood considers the “sexiest” like ScarJo or Margot Robbie). Vanessa is attractive, she’s 32. There’s an age range of four years with these women, they’re all attractive, so why wouldn’t attractiveness help Carey and Vanessa as well?

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    iWantTheGold
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    #1204200693

    Clearly just about every critics group and industry body thought Brie Larson was better than Cate Blanchett and Charlotte Rampling, so I’m not sure if that’s a fair comparison. Same goes for Natalie Portman in her year. As far as the rest go, Huppert was the only nomination for her film and Emma was literally the only one in a Best Picture nominee and it just so happened to be the frontrunner. J-Law was just having her moment after Hunger Games coming out the same year. I mean, if you really wanna use the logic of “hot young actress always win”, shouldn’t you use the same logic for Bakalova in her category? I’m not super attracted to her personally, but I know some people who are. Amanda Seyfried has a lot of people who are attracted to her, shouldn’t you consider her as a winner as well?

    Critics groups are a bunch of old white men for the most part too. They aren’t immune to certain gender biases any more than the Academy, as far as I’m concerned. The Critics Choice Awards also seem determined to turn themselves into the Globes of yesteryear and go out of their way to “predict” what they think will win at the Oscars, so those wins could be explained away that way as well.

    Also, I should probably note that I’m not saying “naked = win”, or that “sex-appeal-and-nothing-else = win”. There are many, many other factors, some of which trump others in a given year, but to me, those 4 Best Actress wins I cited absolutely, without a doubt, were influenced by those Actresses’ sex appeal. In my opinion, Portman, Larson, and Stone all did nothing special – Lawrence was the only one whose performance elevated the role (movie itself was trash), and she should have lost too. But to each his/her own….

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    crabbie
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    #1204200701

    Didn’t Alicia also have nude scenes in The Danish Girl? not that it mattered lol.

    Oop never watched that.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    iWantTheGold
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    #1204200712

    Andra is 36, which is still older than the winner you used in your example. Carey is only 6 months younger, and while she doesn’t have nude scenes in PYW she is very attractive (at least for me she is, and I think she’s prettier than some of the women Hollywood considers the “sexiest” like ScarJo or Margot Robbie). Vanessa is attractive, she’s 32. There’s an age range of four years with these women, they’re all attractive, so why wouldn’t attractiveness help Carey and Vanessa as well?

    Like I said – I conflated two different arguments and I probably should not have done so. In most cases, the dirty old man vote (which in my opinion is significant) goes to “whoever is the youngest/hottest”. In this year’s case, normally I would say that vote would definitely be going to Mulligan/Kirby. However, due to the subject matter of their respective movies, I could see that voter being turned off. Day on the other hand, knocks it out of the park in a super baity role, is very attractive (in my opinion), and on top of that shows a ton of skin. Her character is very sexualized in that movie, and in a way which I personally think would be appealing to that kind of voter (Halle Berry in Monster’s Ball certainly was). Then again, some of those people might not even watch the movies, in which case you would be correct in saying those votes would probably be going to Kirby/Mulligan. This is all predicated on whether or not you believe that voter actually exists, which I obviously do. For the record, I still think Mulligan is winning and that Day is a longshot.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204200714

    can’t complain, this talk about nudity edge to winning is more entertaining than anything in the past 45 threads. :popcorn:

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    George Ehret
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    #1204200719

    Critics groups are a bunch of old white men for the most part too. They aren’t immune to certain gender biases any more than the Academy, as far as I’m concerned. The Critics Choice Awards also seem determined to turn themselves into the Globes of yesteryear and go out of their way to “predict” what they think will win at the Oscars, so those wins could be explained away that way as well.

    Fair point, but Larson’s is a role in which there is literally nothing to do with sex appeal. She doesn’t take off her clothes or have sex on screen, it was just an emotionally challenging role that she did incredibly well and she won an Oscar for it. She was an ingenue, sure, but that was a devastating performance that had nothing to do with how hot she is or whatever.

    Lawrence was the only one whose performance elevated the role (movie itself was trash), and she should have lost too. But to each his/her own….

    Well, I thought Lawrence was not that good in SLP and I don’t think she’s all that pretty either, so I guess I just gave bad taste according to the Academy (or at least the Academy you think exists)

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    Luca
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    #1204200726

    Not y’all talking this long about nude scenes and sex appeal💀

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