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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 46)

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    SN
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    #1204201212

    Can I ask why some of you guys are saying Carey would have won the Comedy Globe? Because I don’t think she would have. If they chose to award the until-then 5th place nominee Day over Mulligan in Drama, I think it’s very likely that Rosamund, who they love and awarded over the until-then front runner Bakalova, would still have prevailed.

    Day was a stronger winner than Pike, since she was actually nominated for the Oscar. PYW would’ve also won Best Comedy/Musical, which means it’d definitely coattail an acting win.

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204201217

    How do you know that Rosamund wouldn’t win over Mulligan? She lost to Day- who came out of nowhere and had a panned movie. And the HFPA have an established history of favouring Rosamund.

    Because it makes sense to go with the Oscar contender over a bunch of non-contenders and Maria Bakalova. Because Promising Young Woman did well and it would have been the most nominated movie in the comedy section. Because there is literally no example of the committee going against the Oscar contenders in this category. Awkwafina, Colman, Ronan, Stone, Lawrence twice, Adams twice, Williams, Bening twice, Streep twice, Hawkins, Cotillard, Witherspoon, Keaton, Zellweger, Kidman. The only exception is Zellweger in Nurse Betty. The rest were all Oscar nominees & contenders. Pike was never a contender.

    Also, Rosamund Pike has a total of 3 Golden Globe nominations. Carey Mulligan has 2 nominations. It’s hardly a big difference, Pike is not a Streep, nor even a Lawrence or a Jolie.

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    marty
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    #1204201221

    Day was a stronger winner than Pike, since she was actually nominated for the Oscar. PYW would’ve also won Best Comedy/Musical, which means it’d definitely coattail an acting win.

    But Day’s Oscar nomination was because of her Globe win. Before the Globes happened she was solidly 5th for that show, and a non factor everywhere else. Rosamund was strong enough to beat Bakalova, who people said was winning in a landslide, and who was in the CM winner (and also got an Oscar nomination ultimately in a different category).

    I do think Carey would have had a higher chance of winning in Comedy, but I don’t think she would be locked at all.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    wolfali
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    #1204201227

    As someone who is a massive fan of Promising Young Woman and believes Mulligan would have won at BAFTA under last year’s voting system, I don’t think she would have been a slam dunk in comedy. I Care A Lot was a very popular film (and arguably one more of the general public actually had heard of which is something considering how Promising Young Woman is one of the more popular films in this lineup) and the HFPA are obsessed with Rosamund Pike. I mean they literally nominated this woman (for a strong performance!) for a n1curr film from a flop distributor no one had ever heard of.

    What I might agree with though is the possibility Promising Young Woman might have won over Borat. Whilst the HFPA have an affection for Sacha Baron Cohen in a similar manner to how they do with Pike, Bakalova’s loss indicates they weren’t that obsessed with Borat 2. Assuming it still would have landed Screenplay and Directing nominations, it’s not implausible for Promising Young Woman to have won over Borat 2. Especially considering how The Grand Budapest Hotel for example (ONLY) won Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy over Birdman in spite of the latter film being the Screenplay and Actor winner at the Globes and the eventual Best Picture winner at the Oscars!

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    marty
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    #1204201231

    Because it makes sense to go with the Oscar contender over a bunch of non-contenders and Maria Bakalova. Because Promising Young Woman did well and it would have been the most nominated movie in the comedy section. Because there is literally no example of the committee going against the Oscar contenders in this category. Awkwafina, Colman, Ronan, Stone, Lawrence twice, Adams twice, Williams, Bening twice, Streep twice, Hawkins, Cotillard, Witherspoon, Keaton, Zellweger, Kidman. The only exception is Zellweger in Nurse Betty. The rest were all Oscar nominees & contenders. Pike was never a contender.

    Also, Rosamund Pike has a total of 3 Golden Globe nominations. Carey Mulligan has 2 nominations. It’s hardly a big difference, Pike is not a Streep, nor even a Lawrence or a Jolie.

    Rosamund’s second Globe nom was for a random flop movie, vs Carey’s two roles in Best Picture Oscar nominees. And this win of hers is also in a non-Oscar movie with no other nominations.

    Bakalova was supposed to be locked for that win, and she is also the 2nd place for an Oscar, albeit in a different category. Yet she lost to Pike.

    The Supporting Actress winner this year literally didn’t even get a nomination, and was a complete non-contender. They broke a decades old star by awarding Jodie. So I wouldn’t say that a predilection for Oscar contenders is a rule for the HFPA.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    SN
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    #1204201234

    But Day’s Oscar nomination was because of her Globe win.

    Which proves my point that she was a stronger winner than Pike, since Pike couldn’t be nominated after a Globe win.

    Rosamund was strong enough to beat Bakalova, who people said was winning in a landslide, and who was in the CM winner (and also got an Oscar nomination ultimately in a different category).

    Bakalova’s film already had an acting win. If PYW was in comedy, Mulligan would be the only place it could get recognized in acting.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204201238

    But Day’s Oscar nomination was because of her Globe win. Before the Globes happened she was solidly 5th. Rosamund was strong enough to beat Bakalova, who people said was winning in a landslide, and who was in the CM winner (and also got an Oscar nomination ultimately in a different category). I do think Carey would have had a higher chance of winning in Comedy, but I don’t think she would be locked at all.

    Carey was/is a bigger contender than Bakalova, who wasn’t contending in the same Oscars category to begin with. And Emerald getting into Director is also a massive sign of strength anywhere. Literally no other film in that category would’ve had that

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    marty
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    #1204201245

    Which proves my point that she was a stronger winner than Pike, since Pike couldn’t be nominated after a Globe win.

    If Day had won the Comedy globe she wouldn’t have been nominated either. That category does not trend in favour for Oscar nominations often in the most recent cases of Oscar contenders competing there. See Egerton and Awkwafina. And there were other factors in favour of Day that Pike didn’t have, mainly hairiness and prestige.

    If they ended up letting PYW walk home 0/5 in our timeline, I’m not sure they would have insisted on giving it an acting win in addition to a picture one. Especially when Rosamund was her movies lone nominee. I could just as easily say that since PYW would win Picture, they could give I Care A Lot its only possible win in Actress.

    My point is that these what-ifs seem to be more “what I wish would happen” disguised as “what would have happened”- because we really have no way of knowing that.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    marty
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    #1204201249

    Carey was/is a bigger contender than Bakalova, who wasn’t contending in the same Oscars category to begin with. And Emerald getting into Director is also a massive sign of strength anywhere. Literally no other film in that category would’ve had that

    Leaving aside the fact that Bakalova may even be ahead in her category of Carey in this one- Rosamund literally had the weakest movie of the Comedy Actress lineup we got, and still won. So I don’t see strength of the movies as a factor.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    Jason Travis
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    #1204201254

    These posts are getting tiresome bro. Freshen up your comedy a bit

    Get a grip dude.

    Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
    17K Subscribers, 33 Million Views

    FYC: Anthony Hopkins, The Father

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    crabbie
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    #1204201262

    Rosamund Pike beating Carey Mulligan is not far fetched. Sometimes they prefer the actual comedy role of it all or the star power. Look at James Franco beating Daniel Kaluuya whose film has a lot of similarities to Promising Young Woman or Taron Egerton beating Leo for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (musical element was a factor in his win).Awkwafina beating Ana De Armas beating is strange on paper since De Armas has a much more comedic role but she’s been cementing her movie star role at the time with films like Crazy Rich Asians, Ocean’s 8, Jumanji. Rosamund Pike is the bigger star than Mulligan and has the comedic role.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204201265

    If Day had won the Comedy globe she wouldn’t have been nominated either. That category does not trend in favour for Oscar nominations often in the most recent cases of Oscar contenders competing there. See Egerton and Awkwafina. And there were other factors in favour of Day that Pike didn’t have, mainly hairiness and prestige. If they ended up letting PYW walk home 0/5 in our timeline, I’m not sure they would have insisted on giving it an acting win in addition to a picture one. Especially when Rosamund was her movies lone nominee. I could just as easily say that since PYW would win Picture, they could give I Care A Lot it’s only possible win in Actress. My point is that these what-ifs seem to be more “what I wish would happen” disguised as “what would have happened”- because we really have no way of knowing that.

    Leaving aside the fact that Bakalova may even be ahead in her category of Carey in this one- Rosamund literally had the weakest movie of the Comedy Actress lineup we got, and still won. So I don’t see strength of the movies as a factor.

    Ugh you’re getting in my head with doubts again. I just think that she would’ve won because of the lack of competition. I know about Pike, but I don’t know that she’d stand much of a chance against the one who’s in a Best Picture contender not just at Globes but at Oscars

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    Jason Travis
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    #1204201269

    Rosamund Pike beating Carey Mulligan is not far fetched. Sometimes they prefer the actual comedy role of it all or the star power. Look at James Franco beating Daniel Kaluuya whose film has a lot of similarities to Promising Young Woman or Taron Egerton beating Leo for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Awkwafina beating Ana De Armas beating is strange on paper since De Armas has a much more comedic role but she’s been cementing her movie star role at the time with films like Crazy Rich Asians, Ocean’s 8, Jumanji. Rosamund Pike is the bigger star than Mulligan and has the comedic role.

    Not that this is from the category, but do you think voters are waiting for Sunset Blvd to reward Close a Lead, or are they just done giving Career Awards away? Otherwise, I am wondering why Close isn’t winning other then they simply didn’t like her performance as much.

    Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
    17K Subscribers, 33 Million Views

    FYC: Anthony Hopkins, The Father

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    TrumpBiden
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    #1204201272

    Honestly, considering the Oscars are kind of doing things right ever since Parasite… I have this good feeling the Mulligan might win for a performance that wouldn’t be up their alley (usually).

    I really hope the Oscars don’t go baity with Viola Generic and Trash Day. Even Mcdormand would be a good pick, but Mulligan NEED this.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204201274

    Rosamund Pike beating Carey Mulligan is not far fetched. Sometimes they prefer the actual comedy role of it all or the star power. Look at James Franco beating Daniel Kaluuya whose film has a lot of similarities to Promising Young Woman or Taron Egerton beating Leo for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (musical element was a factor in his win).Awkwafina beating Ana De Armas beating is strange on paper since De Armas has a much more comedic role but she’s been cementing her movie star role at the time with films like Crazy Rich Asians, Ocean’s 8, Jumanji. Rosamund Pike is the bigger star than Mulligan and has the comedic role.

    Way to give me doubts, dude.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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