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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 46)

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    crabbie
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    #1204201562

    The argument that as a recent winner, the Academy may not be as anxious to award Viola Davis, a 2nd Oscar is laughable.

    I’ve actually seen the argument of a 2nd Oscar used in predicting Davis to win since the industry is enamored with Davis yet she only has 1 Oscar.

    Mulligan’s U.S. celebrity profile is C-list at best, she’s barely known as witnessed by the apathetic demos/ratings to her SNL appearance.

    Kaluuya’s ratings got similar ratings but that’s beside the point since American audiences are very much familiar with Kaluuya after Get Out. I can’t help but imagine AMPAS voters are planning to reward her when’s been in much more prominent work as they do with other British actors. They denied Helen Mirren for Gosford Park despite SAG backing her as well. Mulligan does not have the veteran clout as Rylance or Swinton to garner more votes outside of the British bloc that can get her the win.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Oscirus Jones
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    #1204201582

    Kaluuya’s ratings got similar ratings but that’s beside the point since American audiences are very much familiar with Kaluuya after Get Out.  

    Kaluuya legit raised the demo from the previous week for mulligan to drop it right back down. Im all for defending one’s fav but not when presenting numbers out of context to do so.

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204201584

    Kaluuya legit raised the demo from the previous week for mulligan to drop it right back down. Im all for defending one’s fav but not when presenting numbers out of context to do so.

    I have them both with 3.6 million.

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    Luca
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    #1204201586

    Why are we considering SNL this much??

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    crabbie
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    #1204201588

    Kaluuya legit raised the demo from the previous week for mulligan to drop it right back down. Im all for defending one’s fav but not when presenting numbers out of context to do so.

    Wikipedia says 3.6 million ratings for both.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturday_Night_Live_(season_46)

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    crabbie
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    #1204201590

    Why are we considering SNL this much??

    PLSSS this thread…

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204201592

    Why are we considering SNL this much??

    Because it’s obviously making last-minute buzz to certain contenders. Like Mulligan is campaigning a lot last minute. She knows it’s the most crucial time to show herself everywhere. Also, remember Christoph Waltz? I would swear he won because of his last-minute campaign tour that included an SNL visit.

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    Shaunie Jean
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    #1204201609

    There have been innumerable amounts of “undeniable performances” from innumerable amounts of “strong films” that have gone ignored by the Oscars. That sentiment only covers nominated performances nary a mention of snubbed performances not even highlighted with a nod. That is simply the nature of the beast. It’s politics….Hollywood style.

    Meryl Streep, Jennifer Lawrence and Emma Stone all won BA past decade in subpar films while more deserving actresses like Isabelle Huppert, Viola Davis and Jessica Chastain with “undeniable performances” in “stronger films” were left out in the cold.

    What I find puzzling is the pushback against Davis’ narrative thrust this awards season. She was nominated for nearly every precursor award alongside the majority of her BA squad mates. She made several critics list as one of the best performances of the year. She won the SAG award in a very competitive field. I can understand, even respect preferences but my prediction remains the same.

    “Great narrative for another black actress to complete”, where is the great part exactly?

    Out of 92 BA winners, only 1 is Black, no other minorites are represented. Hepburn won 4. While 13 additional white women have won 2 each. What is so great about these stats? This is sad and disgraceful.

    The online consensus and sketchy critics do not have to agree with the forward motion of progress. After viewing all 5 nominated performances, I believe Viola should win because she left an impression. The ‘bigger narrative’ as one would say is going steam full ahead. Fortunately, institutions such as AAMPAS are finally coming to terms with their participation in the problem. Overall, the organization required deconstruction and rebuilding. I am proud of AAMPAS. This is a wonderful pathway to provide ample oppportunities for everyone.

    No one forgot about Cynthia, Ruth, Gabourey or Angela. It did not take a rocket scientist to foretell they didn’t have a shot at winning either way. Their race was not a hinderance in the regard that their performances simply weren’t as strong as others in the category. So no, they did not have the ‘black actress’ narrative going in their favor. The mandate for Best Picture alone speaks volumes about the new direction the Academy is headed.

    I am a realist about the odds of what will happen based upon what has happened.  I have statistics and real data to back up my predictions not passion and fury. How to explain dual Oscar/Emmy wins in the same year for Regina King, Holly Hunter, Julianne Moore, Kate Winslet & Laura Dern. What to make of the dual Oscar/Tony wins in the same year for Judi Dench, Mark Rylance and Helen Mirren? Because there is major crossover between the voting bodies of the Emmys, Oscars, SAGs and Tonys.

    Within the 2016/7 award season, Davis won the Drama Lead Actress Emmy and SA Oscar less than 6 months apart. How is that possble? Because there is major crossover between the voting bodies of the Emmys, Oscars, SAGs and Tonys.

    If all these interconnected voting bodies are electing a WOC as their lead actress winner this awards season..why would the Oscars be the only outlier? They wouldn’t and won’t be. It’s happening.

    OMG!!! I could only imagine her HISTORIC SPEECH!!!

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    Luca
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    #1204201611

    OK, so I caught up with the last eight pages of this thread and yikes.

    The cherry-picking is ridiculous. The pros for Carey Mulligan now include not one but two hypothetical wins and an SNL stint, yet no one has a problem dismissing the actual GG and SAG winners? Please.

    If the HFPA really wanted to give Carey an award, they would have done so in drama. But they didn’t. They decided to give Andra Day that boost instead. Rosamund Pike’s performance is arguably showier than Carey’s, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Carey had lost even the comedy Globe (we know the HFPA loves showy performances). I wish Rosamund had snagged an Oscar nom.

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    Rachel615
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    #1204201622

    Kaluuya legit raised the demo from the previous week for mulligan to drop it right back down. Im all for defending one’s fav but not when presenting numbers out of context to do so.

    The SNL show Mulligan hosted  generated the identical ratings and demo as the show Maya Rudolph hosted two weeks ago; the overall Mulligan ratings were the same as the show Kaluuya hosted but the 18 to 49 demo ratings were slightly lower.  Given that the majority of Oscar voters tend to be 50 or older, and that’s an audience she wants to win over, I doubt the demo comparison with the Kaluuya show is of concern to her representatives.

    Personally, I’m not convinced being on SNL has any impact whatsoever on anyone’s Oscar votes, but if it does, it’s possible she may have helped herself. She certainly didn’t harm her campaign.

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    Yiploo
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    #1204201634

    Yes Viola is coming on top. Also, Emma Stone and JLaw had strong films, both of their films had many nominations across the board, especially Stone’s movie.

    A Fervent Believer in the Church of Two-Time Academy Award Winner Viola Davis.

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    Ryusei
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    #1204201638

    Could the makeup and hairstyling nom be telling for a Viola win? We know they looove their transformations.

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    Oscirus Jones
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    #1204201641

    The SNL show Mulligan hosted generated the identical ratings and demo as the show Maya Rudolph hosted two weeks ago; the overall Mulligan ratings were the same as the show Kaluuya hosted but the 18 to 49 demo ratings were slightly lower. Given that the majority of Oscar voters tend to be 50 or older, and that’s an audience she wants to win over, I doubt the demo comparison with the Kaluuya show is of concern to her representatives. Personally, I’m not convinced being on SNL has any impact whatsoever on anyone’s Oscar votes, but if it does, it’s possible she may have helped herself. She certainly didn’t harm her campaign.

    The comparison with kaluuya in general is of little use to her since they’re not competing and are at different places in their respective races. Honestly the only use that snl really has is to show versatility. In that aspect, I think she did fine writing probably let her down a bit but she was nowhere near as stiff as most serious actors tend to be when hosting that show.

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    Luca
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    #1204201645

    Could the makeup and hairstyling nom be telling for a Viola win? We know they looove their transformations.

    While I think the makeup and hairstyling & costume wins are both attributed largely to the work done on Davis, I don’t think it means much of anything for Davis’ chances. They can easily love the work done on her more so than her own acting work.

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    manakamana
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    #1204201648

    Could the makeup and hairstyling nom be telling for a Viola win? We know they looove their transformations.

    There is definitely a pattern in makeup overlapping with acting lately, but it really depends on the competition each year (didn’t mean much with Bombshell, for example).

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