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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 46)

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    Luca
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    #1204202925

    I don’t quote when I know it’ll be the next comment 🙂

    You never know what happens. We say this about performers all the time — that they’ll be back and win for better movies/performances. But what if not? What if the movies are flops? Or the competition just doesn’t allow it? Not saying this is gonna happen, but still.

    But that’s beside the point anyway. I just think it’s unnecessary to suggest she’s winning solely based on narrative. It’s sounds like someone who’s just disappointed she has a chance at all.

    I am fine if she doesn’t win for this — and I am not predicting it. At the same time, I thought she was terrific in MRBB and know many others who think the same.

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204202935

    I don’t quote when I know it’ll be the next comment 🙂 You never knows what happens. We say this about performers all the time — that they’ll be back and win for better movies/performances? But what if not? What if the movies are flops? But that’s beside the point anyway. I just think it’s unnecessary to say to suggest she’s winning solely based on narrative. It’s sounds like someone who’s just disappointed she has a chance at all. I am fine if she doesn’t win for this — and I am not predicting it. At the same time, I thought she was terrific in MRBB.

    I’m just simply relying on the general consensus. I’m sure many think she is the best in the category. But I’ve been lurking many sites, reviews, and comments, and it seems to me that Carey Mulligan and Frances McDormand are the fan favorites. I think this can be measured.

    I’ve been a huge Viola fan for her TV work, and I was totally on the ship with her previous well-deserving win. I just think she’s going to do something bigger soon, and it will be overlooked because she’s already won twice, while Mulligan is literally at career peak and would be deserving of her first win.

    I didn’t want Olivia to win for the exact same reason. The Father is a good performance, but she’ll do even better later on.

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    Luca
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    #1204202943

    And I get what you mean! It’s why I also cannot predict her. I am not 100% feeling it.

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    crabbie
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    #1204202959

    Someone brought up a good point about Thelma & <i>Louise</i> and I’d like to say the characters redefined the role of female characters being rebellious and ultimately inciting violence against men to achieve their goals is one of the reasons neither actress could win the Oscar.

    This is a great video on that Oscar race detailing the backlash of Thelma & Louise

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ym0nZnHU_m0

    Jodie Foster’s Clarice was a much more “tamed” approach of feminism the Academy likes which is also why she beat Glenn Close in Dangerous Liaisons for playing a rape victim versus Close’s character who gives a monologue about the constrained societal boundaries on women. I mean Jodie Foster was the sole nominee of her film while Dangerous <i>Liaisons</i> was nominated for Best Picture and won 3 Oscars. Really showed how the Academy views female roles.

    This was kind of a tangent but back to predictions, I’m afraid the Academy despite its new diverse membership is unwilling to give a female actress the distinction of playing a female character that is rebellious or vengeful. Frances McDormand looks like she would challenge this idea only for her to forgive the racist cop at the end of the film as she works with her enemy turned accomplice. There has been some stupid takes on Promising Young Woman including that Cassie, herself, is a misandrist that has been repeated in critic circles and just recently on one of Goldderby articles. It’s literally so strange because men have played the vengeful character role and won Oscars for it…hmm. For every Charlize Theron, you get a Kate Winslet, Sandra Bullock, Julianne Moore. I think the Academy will go to their familiar territory and reward the biopic transformative role that Andra Day presents for this reason. It is easy to dismiss Viola Davis as a typical Oscar bait role but she really does play against type and Ma Rainey is not exactly an icon that the Academy is really familiar with. Not only that, but there is no iconic snotting she does or suffering in her character like her previous Oscar nominated roles (Distraught Wife, Oppressed Maid, Abused Wife). It’s showy but it’s not extremely showy that it is distracting. She could be screaming and shouting in every scene, but she does not. It’s a subtle yet powerful performance that is not everyone’s cup of tea.

    If Mulligan wins it will revolutionize the nature of Academy award winning roles for Lead Actress which is why I’m rooting for her so hard. Her win would give me as much excitement as Natalie Portman for Black Swan only for Meryl Streep to win the next year for a biopic.

     

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204203012

    I get what y’all are saying by not picking your favorites, and I’m tempted to change my prediction because of that. I do genuinely believe that Carey gives the best performance of the year from either gender or either category placement. I think she shows more range in her role than the other nominees in this category and, in my opinion, she brings a level of vulnerability to her performance that other actresses couldn’t bring to that performance. It may not be a transformation, she may not do all kinds of screaming and crying, but she does something that I genuinely believe is unique to her performance and something that, as great as these other nominees are in their films, couldn’t do in the same way. So yes, I want her to win, and yes I am tempted to not predict her because of that, BUT I just have this gut feeling that she has a lot more support and especially passion behind her that we give her credit for. It’s shown by the critics’ wins, it’s shown by the audience’s reactions, it’s shown by cinephiles, but it hasn’t seemed to be shown by the industry. But how do we know they don’t have passion for her? She lost SAG, but she was only nominated at SAG when it comes to industry. The BAFTA jury snubbed her, but she could’ve easily won if she were nominated. The British Film win over The Father shows that it definitely could’ve happened. I know we had this whole spiel about hypothetical scenarios, but this is part of my point. We don’t know what would’ve happened, so we don’t really know if she truly lacks passion. We can make our guesses based on what actually happened, and I do believe that she probably would’ve won BAFTA if she were nominated. Perhaps this new Academy that’s younger, more diverse, and more international will back her more than these other contenders and go with a more non-traditional winner. There’s also the fact that she is in a Best Picture nominee and the fact that she’s never won an Oscar. There’s a lot of passionate support for PYW in the Academy, we know from reports about members who love the film and based on the nominations it got. And while this isn’t my main reasoning, I do wonder if there’s a contingent of voters who are so excited to see her finally back as a nominee after An Education, maybe some who even voted for her over Sandra Bullock, that they vote for her. This may be flimsy reasoning, I may be reaching, if I am please tell me why you think I’m wrong or while my arguments are ridiculous (it’s ok I have thick skin). But this is a weird gut feeling I have and unless someone does convince me to change before the ceremony, I’ll probably stick with it.

    Sorry for the novel

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    Atypical
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    #1204203020

    All things are possible, however the Globes have a tendency to reward singers who act but hardly if ever do those wins result in Oscars. The Globes awarded Bette Midler, Diana Ross, Judy Garland, Lady Gaga, Bernadette Peters, Pia Zadora and even Madonna for acting performances. Not one of them won the Oscar for acting..

    If the Oscars failed Garland and Midler (twice), Ross and Gaga for critically acclaimed career defining performances how in the world will Day, a virtual unknown win for a subpar film?

    Not only does she lack momentum and pedigree, Day doesn’t have the narrative thrusts of Cher, Barbra Streisand or even Jennifer Hudson to sustain a win in BA. Those 3 won Globes, then conquered Oscar.

    Oscar is so averse to rewarding singers who act that of the 3 winners, 2 were Broadway ingenues in possession of other worldly voices and the other,a washed up singer who spectacularly morphed into a powerful actress without singing one note.

    Day almost certainly will not win BA.

    This is almost entirely overlooking the Oscars inherent love of biopics, and plenty of those centered around tortured musicians, both for nominations and wins. Underestimate Andra Day at your own risk.

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    Milk Money
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    #1204203079

    No matter what happens I think we all can agree that this was a great year for female performances.

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    Shaunie Jean
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    #1204203093

    Cassie is not demented or sick. Let’s stop stigmatizing women who are traumatized, depressed and are carrying survivor’s guilt.

    Cassie is not a real person. She is a fictional creation. Not a flesh and blood woman. The character of Cassie was sick and depraved in my opinion. She had no real circumstances to consider because she doesn’t exist.

    Please do not tell me what to “stop” doing. Do not attempt to hang your labels on me. I can say whatever I wish to say particularly about a film character.

    I was not talking about a human being. Maybe you should consider being more polite and less aggressive with ‘forcing’ your opinion onto others who are unwilling to accept it.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204203101

    Cassie is not a real person. She is a fictional creation. Not a flesh and blood woman. The character of Cassie was sick and depraved in my opinion. She had no real circumstances to consider because she doesn’t exist.

    It’s pretty ironic that people call Cassie “sick and depraved” because of her actions when in male-led revenge movies we consider those protagonists “heroes”. I’m not saying I agree with Cassie’s actions, but I think it’s fair to say that her tactics are similarly “sick and depraved” to those of, let’s say John Wick. Furthermore, she may be a fictional character, but her motivations are rooted in events that happen in the real world. Even if Nina is a more ambiguous part of the film, there’s a lot of people like Nina and a lot of people like Cassie in the world. They just don’t all act like Cassie or do what she ultimately does in the film. Doesn’t matter if she’s a fictional character. Her motivations stem from things that happen in the real world. This is coming from a 20-year-old man, the demographic that’s theoretically supposed to hate PYW, yet it’s my favorite film of 2020 and now one of my favorites of all time. The circumstances of Cassie’s story are rooted in real events that happen all the time. So yes, she did have real circumstances to consider

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    iWantTheGold
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    #1204203150

    Cassie is not a real person. She is a fictional creation. Not a flesh and blood woman. The character of Cassie was sick and depraved in my opinion. She had no real circumstances to consider because she doesn’t exist.

    Please do not tell me what to “stop” doing. Do not attempt to hang your labels on me. I can say whatever I wish to say particularly about a film character.

    I was not talking about a human being. Maybe you should consider being more polite and less aggressive with ‘forcing’ your opinion onto others who are unwilling to accept it.

    In agreement. People need to chill.

    Cassie is definitely a fucked up person. She absolutely has her reasons, and I certainly sympathize with the idea that people should have to answer for their crimes, but you can’t tell me her behavior isn’t at least kind of crazy. *SPOILERS* Her friend’s Mom even tells her to stop, that this is not going to end well for her.

    I should really see the movie again, cause maybe my opinion would change on a second viewing, but to me, my big issue with the movie was how full of holes Cassie’s plan was. It was pretty fucking naive, and she kind of got what was coming to her. It was a little like Quint in Jaws. Dude’s pals all got eaten by sharks, so he dedicates his life to killing sharks (or in Cassie’s case, guilt-tripping(?) guys), then he ends up getting eaten by a shark. Then again, maybe the whole point was that Cassie knew she was going to eventually get killed the whole time, she just didn’t care – but I just thought her plan could’ve been better thought-out, particularly the getting picked up in clubs section.

    If there was more of a satirical/ironic element to the film, like if it was more of a character study of the #metoo twitter SJW-type that Cassie basically is, then I probably would’ve gotten more out of the movie. As it stands, it kind of makes a point out of the fact that lot of the people she’s getting revenge on aren’t really the same people anymore (particularly the guy at the end), but ultimately it comes to the conclusion that no, that’s bullshit, nobody really changes, these people are all still monsters deep down, so the movie basically operates as just a straight, uncritical revenge-fantasy for said SJW-types. Which is fine, I guess, but I think it would’ve been more interesting if Cassie decided to press on with her crusade, despite mounting evidence that these people didn’t really deserve the kind of justice she was serving.

    They particularly could have done that with the Burnham character, I didn’t think his character turn was particularly believable. That character, to me, should have been been crying, begging on his knees for her forgiveness, not excusing his apathy at the time, but at least honestly trying to explain what must have been going through his mind when he saw what was happening, and expressing regret, and Cassie should’ve just shook her head, unapologetically judging him, not accepting his excuses at all. That would’ve been infinitely more interesting, but it probably would have made Cassie kind of look bad, and by extension force the Cassies in the audience to confront their own actions and attitudes in situations like that (on the internet and beyond). That would’ve been the brave thing to do artistically, but when you consider the Cassies of the world, self-reflection is not exactly in their vocabulary (it isn’t in most people’s, but given their self-righteousness, it probably should be). The movie ultimately panders to that sensibility.

    That being said, PYW was on the verge of being redeemed with its twist, but Fennell botched the perfect ending, which to me would have been going to credits immediately after the Bo Burnham denying everything scene – which would have convincingly hammered home the movie’s basic thesis: a) men always get away with being terrible, and b) good men stand by and say nothing. The ending was still fun and satisfying on its own terms, but it was definitely a Hollywood ending, relatively speaking.

    I didn’t hate the movie, but I thought it was extremely flawed. Fun to talk about though lol, and I still think Carey’s gonna win.

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    na digga
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    #1204203157

    I’m already used to seeing crazy remarks in the forums. But today I was reading the goldderby article ‘5 reasons why Carey Mulligan (‘Promising Young Woman’) is still on track to win Best Actress Oscar‘ which is absolutely a hot mess. The editor suggests that Davis and Day will split because of the similarities in their roles. When their roles are VERY different, plus they didn’t split at globes. This narrative needs to stop.

    Then the editor also says “Also, keep in mind that with Chadwick Boseman looking like a slam dunk for “Ma Rainey,” it’s not as important to also reward recent Oscar champ Davis” 🧐 it’s not important?? A black women could make history a few times over as the second black actress(first if you consider Berry to be biracial) to win best actress and could become the first black actress to win multiple Oscars and the most awarded black actress and one of the first black actresses to win for a non stereotypical role, and that’s not important?? I get the passion for Mulligan, but you can want Mulligan to win without making ridiculous statements.

    Viola Davis is the Greatest of our time!!!

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    George Ehret
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    #1204203177

    There is not one person in this race who’s “on track” to win. Anyone who believes that for any contender is naive. You have to evaluate what has happened, what potentially could happen, and precedent then make up your own mind. Saying that someone who’s won one major award (which is literally four of the five nominees) is on track to win is delusional at best, doesn’t matter if you’re rooting for them or not.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    George Ehret
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    #1204203184

    If there was more of a satirical/ironic element to the film, like if it was more of a character study of the #metoo twitter SJW-type that Cassie basically is, then I probably would’ve gotten more out of the movie. As it stands, it kind of makes a point out of the fact that lot of the people she’s getting revenge on aren’t really the same people anymore (particularly the guy at the end), but ultimately it comes to the conclusion that no, that’s bullshit, nobody really changes, these people are all still monsters deep down, so the movie basically operates as just a straight, uncritical revenge-fantasy for said SJW-types. Which is fine, I guess, but I think it would’ve been more interesting if Cassie decided to press on with her crusade, despite mounting evidence that these people didn’t really deserve the kind of justice she was serving. They particularly could have done that with the Burnham character, I didn’t think his character turn was particularly believable. That character, to me, should have been been crying, begging on his knees for her forgiveness, not excusing his apathy at the time, but at least honestly trying to explain what must have been going through his mind when he saw what was happening, and expressing regret, and Cassie should’ve just shook her head, unapologetically judging him, not accepting his excuses at all. That would’ve been infinitely more interesting, but it probably would have made Cassie kind of look bad, and by extension force the Cassies in the audience to confront their own actions and attitudes in situations like that (on the internet and beyond). That would’ve been the brave thing to do artistically, but when you consider the Cassies of the world, self-reflection is not exactly in their vocabulary (it isn’t in most people’s, but given their self-righteousness, it probably should be). The movie ultimately panders to that sensibility.

    I don’t think the film needed to be particularly satirical in order for this to happen. It works perfectly fine the way it is imo. Ultimately the goal of the film is to challenge you to look at yourself and society, and as a 20-year-old straight dude it definitely worked for me. That’s honestly part of the reason I love it. I love when movies challenge me to think about my worldview.

    Also, are Cassie’s actions any more crazy than those of an action hero like John Wick? If your answer to that is no… then maybe you’re a bit of a hypocrite. (This is obviously not me saying that the John Wick movies are bad or anything, I quite enjoy them myself. This is just me trying to hold Cassie to the same standard)

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    TrumpBiden
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    #1204203189

    Dream scenerio for this forum to metldown like a Hershy’s chocolate bar during the summer:

    Actor: Chadwik

    Actress: Day

    Sup. Actor: Kuya (not metldown, but hey, this is the only legit 100% lock)

    Sup. Actress: BAKALOVA

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204203199

    Dream scenerio for this forum to metldown like a Hershy’s chocolate bar during the summer: Actor: Chadwik Actress: Day Sup. Actor: Kuya (not metldown, but hey, this is the only legit 100% lock) Sup. Actress: BAKALOVA

    Yikes. Also, who is Kuya?

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