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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 47)

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  • Profile picture
    Novic
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    #1204204807

    Honestly Carey having more BAFTA awards than Frances makes more sense to me.

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    Anthony 🐜
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    #1204204813

    I KEEP ASKING with NO reply. WHERES my original account DDK????? Why have I been deleted from this forum?????? It’s 1) because I’m black or 2) because I have preached the truth that Viola Davis is winning the Best Actress Oscar and the people who are running this (colours aside) NOT, want to suppress that TRUTH that A BLACK WOMAN is going to win the Oscar!! they really don’t like it. And it’s the same reason why ONLY ONE BLACK ACTRESS has ever won the Oscar in nearly a whole CENTURY. The truth will prevail. WHERES my account #denzel.whitewashed

    It’s probably because you are a virtue signalling troll that just loves to paint black people in a bad light.

    Are we going to do this every year? Turn the Oscars into a black reparation platform? That makes you proud and happy? Oscars being forcefully handed out to black people just to appease the outrage brigade.

    Viola has an Oscar. She is not owed a damn thing, and definetly not a Best Actress Oscar.

    My black ass hopes McDormand wins that Oscar, and i will be there waiting for the outrage brigade to moan and groan for the millionth time about black people not winning Oscars, when the entire Oscars these days are about black actors this, first black that….

    I said it.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204204816

    Of course she is losing. There is no guarantee Mulligan would have won the BAFTA. Promising Young Woman is the next Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. It wins British film and screenplay, nothing else! Oldman is a British veteran could have won for Best Actor but lost to a French actor that is not even British but he was in the Best Film winner! Frances would have beaten Mulligan to continue Nomadland‘s award haul. What makes more sense to you: “Carey Mulligan has more BAFTA acting awards than Frances McDormand” or “Frances McDormand has more BAFTA acting awards than Carey Mulligan”? All of the attention is focused on Emerald Fennell which is why Mulligan lost at the Globes and SAG. These roles do not net award recognition.

    Oldman lost to Dujardin at BAFTA whereas Mulligan didn’t get the nomination, so this isn’t a fair comparison. That being said, you are right that PYW’s campaign has been centered on Emerald Fennell, which as much as I also stan Emerald that’s pretty worrisome to me considering that she’s almost guaranteed to win Original Screenplay.

    Also, McDormand would be winning two BAFTAs anyway because she’d win for Best Film. If they think that way, then perhaps it’d be “Carey Mulligan and Frances McDormand have two BAFTAs each”.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    nkb325
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    #1204204824

    Fuck it, I’m predicting Kirby.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204204826

    I almost wonder if someone at Netflix leaked the news about her upcoming role in a Netflix movie with Adam Sandler to undercut the PYW campaign which (accurately) portrays her as the face of an important movie about a serious social problem— sexual assault. Mulligan’s representatives can’t have thought that releasing this news on the first day of Oscar voting would help her campaign, and Deadline, which broke the story, prominently states in its article that it learned the news “on good authority,” which suggest the info was was leaked to the publication by somebody. Notably, the article didn’t contain any quotes from any official sources associated with the Sandler film saying how pleased they are to be working with her, which would typically be included if her reps had signed off on a press release.

    I don’t know if I’d read into this that much. Sandler did just make a comeback with Uncut Gems, which AMPAS didn’t nominate anywhere but perhaps the fact that she’s doing a movie with him on his comeback tour where he’s doing more serious roles would be more of a boost to her if anything. Does AMPAS really pay much attention to that?

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    George Ehret
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    #1204204828

    Yes but with acting BAFTAs, Frances would still get the edge. It’s like how Brad Pitt already won a BAFTA for 12 years a slave but never an acting BAFTA.

    Except that McDormand DID win an Acting BAFTA for Three Billboards already. Pitt only won the BAFTAs that matched with his Oscars

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    estrelas
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    #1204204832

    The comparison between Promising Young Woman and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy doesn’t make any sense. The latter wasn’t nowhere near as strong of a contender as the former, not to mention Gary Oldman was only nominated at the BAFTAs beside the Oscars.

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    Luca
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    #1204204870

    If only this energy had been put into the universe last year we would have Best Actress Oscar Lupita Nyong’o for an unconventional role. Fucking campaigns and genre bias. Adelaide is in the Best Nominee/ Snub Heaven ready to cut some bitch voters.

    Don’t remind me. I am still mad. She should have SWEPT.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204204872

    Films that won with only screenplay and an acting award:

    -Manchester by the Sea: 6 nominations including 3 for acting. Won Original Screenplay. Casey had Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. Only alternative was Denzel Washington but Fences already had Viola Davis winning

    -Django Unchained: 6 nominations. Won Original Screenplay. Waltz won Globe and BAFTA. No other alternative. Everyone in this category was an Oscar winner. Only other alternative was Tommy Lee Jones but Lincoln was already winning for Best Actor–Daniel Day-Lewis

    -Milk: 8 Oscar nominations. Won Original Screenplay. Penn won Critics Choice and SAG. Suffice to say with 8 Oscar nominations, the Academy loved this film and it was most likely second in Best Picture. SAG also loved its performances. Penn won there, Brolin was nominated there, and its ensemble was nominated too.

    -Promising Young Woman: 5 nominations. Wins Original Screenplay. Mulligan wins Critics Choice. Multiple alternatives including Davis, McDormand, and Day. Davis might be the Denzel Washington for the season since AMPAS spreads the wealth for acting wins. Frances can coattail with Best Picture. Day can win for the biopic pool. Mulligan’s case matches no one since there are clear alternatives and Original Screenplay will be the consolation prize. Closest comparison is to Milk (2008) but Milk was more loved than Promising Young Woman since it has 8 nominations and got a SAG ensemble nomination.

    The alternative to Sean Penn was Mickey Rourke, but Milk was probably #2 in Picture.

    Something that PYW has that these other examples didn’t have sans Milk is the combo of Director + Screenplay + Editing along with Acting. Considering this is the expanded era, I think it’s fair to distinguish PYW and Milk. PYW also has a lot of passion, and there’s reports that it’s racking up quite a few #1 votes. Have to imagine at least SOME of those people are voting for Mulligan.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    George Ehret
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    #1204204875

    How could this news POSSIBLY help her Oscar chances? Her “brand” is, in large part, that she’s a lovely person who is a serious, extremely talented thespian who is very selective about her roles and would rather be unemployed than stoop to taking a job just for the money. Yes, this film, which is being directed by the main creative force behind Chernobyl, may turn out to be interesting, but any savvy follower of the entertainment industry could have predicted that this news will be received by many as evidence that she’s “sold” her credibility to get a huge paycheck for working with a comedy actor who has starred in and produced some of the worst movies of the past 20 years.

    I said if anything. Maybe this is naive of me, but I doubt voters think that hard about who other people work with. Rami Malek won an Oscar despite working with a pedophile. If they can ignore that, I wouldn’t put it past them to ignore this

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    Atypical
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    #1204204884

    I almost wonder if someone at Netflix leaked the news about her upcoming role in a Netflix movie with Adam Sandler to undercut the PYW campaign which (accurately) portrays her as the face of an important movie about a serious social problem— sexual assault. Mulligan’s representatives can’t have thought that releasing this news on the first day of Oscar voting would help her campaign, and Deadline, which broke the story, prominently states in its article that it learned the news “on good authority,” which suggest the info was leaked to the publication by somebody. Notably, the article didn’t contain any quotes from any official sources associated with the Sandler film saying how pleased they are to be working with her, puffery which would typically be included if her reps had signed off on a press release.

    Are you really trying to say that Netflix resorted to dirty tactics to undercut Mulligan’s campaign just to get Viola Davis another Oscar? What are you implying here?

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    George Ehret
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    #1204204886

    The fact that the other examples lacked some of the above the line categories shows how weak their competition is in contrast to Mulligan fighting 2 narratives and a Best Picture actress. Promising Young Woman hit the same boxes as Blackkklansman 2 years ago and only came got 1 win from Adapted Screenplay. Sole screenplay wins are much more common than screenplay + acting

    Adam Driver didn’t stand a chance in his category against Mahershala Ali, and even if Mahershala weren’t there Richard E Grant would be winning. It wasn’t gonna win Editing or Director either (even though Spike was probably the runner-up in the latter), and the only other category it could’ve won for was Score, and Black Panther had the most unique-sounding score of the nominees. Could’ve won Picture, but Roma and Green Book were stronger contenders. PYW is possibly gonna end up being second place because there is no clear #2 to Nomadland. Doesn’t have a chance in Editing or Director.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    Crackleking
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    #1204204890

    The fact that the other examples lacked some of the above the line categories shows how weak their competition is in contrast to Mulligan fighting 2 narratives and a Best Picture actress. Promising Young Woman hit the same boxes as Blackkklansman 2 years ago and only came got 1 win from Adapted Screenplay. Sole screenplay wins are much more common than screenplay + acting

    But the recent examples of sole screenplay wins (Blackkklansman, Get Out, Jojo Rabbit) had no chance in their acting categories as they were versing sweepers. As this race is very split, those in strong best picture contenders have an advantage, hence why McDormand and Mulligan still have a chance.

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    JakeT
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    #1204204921

    I really don’t think voters will care that Mulligan has signed up to do a film with Adam Sandler. Besides, he seems to be pivoting with his choices, too. Way too much speculation going on here – next Sunday needs to hurry up and put a stop to all this wild theorising.

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    Crackleking
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    #1204204923

    Split races tend to favor films that will win 0 Oscars though such as If Beale Street Could Talk, The Favourite, Bridge of Spies etc. Promising Young Woman is guaranteed Original Screenplay.

    So using your logic Day or Kirby will win, which while Day could very well and I’m currently predicting her, does not fit the bill of those winners you mentioned as they had much more broader support. While PYW may be rallied around in OS, it’s not hard for me to believe that those who are passionate about the film to also vote for Mulligan in actress, same for McDormand. I think the key to determine the winner will be to assess the whom the vote will go to if they are not super passionate about either of the two films.

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