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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 47)

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    Ghost
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    #1204207755

    I can still see a bit of hope for Day, but I’d be surprised if a newcomer with no career narrative and a critically panned film would be preferred over names like Viola Davis or Carey Mulligan. We don’t really know if she won by 2 or 10 votes at the Golden Globes, but like I mentioned that event feels like ages ago, and as she was snubbed by SAG & BAFTA, her lack of visibility in the 1,5 month is also alarming.

    Andra’s visibility isn’t a problem. She has been campaigning hard since her Globe win. She even presented at the BAFTAs.

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    Rachel615
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    #1204207761

    And Mulligan was literally screwed over by her campaign crew (wrong GG category submission) and the BAFTA jury. I wish she’d have the visibility to take this, but I’m kind of done hoping.

    Mulligan and PYW were submitted at the Globes by Focus and Fennell in the Comedy categories and were switched to Drama by the HFPA. Carey losing the Globe was not due to a mistake “by her campaign crew.”

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    Atypical
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    #1204207765

    I can still see a bit of hope for Day, but I’d be surprised if a newcomer with no career narrative and a critically panned film would be preferred over names like Viola Davis or Carey Mulligan. We don’t really know if she won by 2 or 10 votes at the Golden Globes, but like I mentioned that event feels like ages ago, and as she was snubbed by SAG & BAFTA, her lack of visibility in the 1,5 month is also alarming.

    Day doesn’t suffer from a lack of visibility, as she’s campaigning like crazy and making her presence fully known in the race. She’s very competitive for the Oscar win, and her film’s reception isn’t what is being judged, but best actress.

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    Oscirus Jones
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    #1204207776

    Im looking at the globes and the way I see it was their entire goal seemed to be getting certain actresses nommed. They had three separate chances to take the easy way out in the actresses categories and they took none of them. They might’ve only succeeded with day, but still

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204207788

    Mulligan and PYW were submitted at the Globes by Focus and Fennell in the Comedy categories and were switched to Drama by the HFPA. Carey losing the Globe was not due to a mistake “by her campaign crew.”

    Thank you for the clarification!

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204207796

    Day doesn’t suffer from a lack of visibility, as she’s campaigning like crazy and making her presence fully known in the race. She’s very competitive for the Oscar win, and her film’s reception isn’t what is being judged, but best actress.

    Maybe not in the literal sense, but she was absent from these awards shows (since March 8th), and voters may be more supportive of SAG/BAFTA/BFCA winners if they feel Day has no chance for the win.

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    #1204207806
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    A G Wooding
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    #1204207820

    I’m not saying that Andra Day doesn’t have a chance of winning (I don’t even think I can say Kirby doesn’t have a chance of winning, miniscule as it may be) but she has such a hill to climb compared to the others.

    1) No actress has won the Oscar without a corresponding SAG nomination.

    2) No actress has won the Oscar with just a Globe win since the 4 major precursors have been in play.

    3) Actresses who are the only nominee for their films tend to sweep.

    I know it’s a close year and she fits the mold of an Oscar winning performance but she just has too many hurdles I think.

    If she did win though…THAT would be a monumental victory. Up there with Marcia Gay Hardens

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    koksvardas
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    #1204207825

    Which scenario is more likely in your opinion?

    Somebody upsets Youn for best supporting actress

    or

    Day, Kirby, McDormand wins over Mulligan, Davis?

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    Oscirus Jones
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    #1204207840

    Which scenario is more likely in your opinion? Somebody upsets Youn for best supporting actress or Day, Kirby, McDormand wins over Mulligan, Davis?

    Day kirby mcdormand wins over mulligan. Youn’s name has already been engraved on the statue

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    A G Wooding
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    #1204207842

    Which scenario is more likely in your opinion?

    Somebody upsets Youn for best supporting actress

    or

    Day, Kirby, McDormand wins over Mulligan, Davis?

    I honestly can’t see someone upsetting Youn so it would have to be the latter option.

    But of those three, I think McDormand stands the best chance.

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    crabbie
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    #1204207858

    What do people mean when Day has been campaigning like crazy? I don’t see how she is doing more excessive campaigning than Davis or Mulligan. I’m just curious because I am not all that familiar with Day’s campaign strategies.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204207886

    Mulligan was the last of them to win a prize before SAG yet that couldn’t even give her the edge over Viola, same for Bakalova. Both would won SAG had they won GG, proving how a BFCA win is irrelevant. The Academy snubbed Pike and Foster but nominated Day instead, she was raved and is a strong contender here whether you want to admit it or not.

    She’s among the four contenders who can pretty much take it.

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    Yahorabasetoke
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    #1204208003

    And the winner is……… Viola Day!!!!!! It’s gonna be a tie!!!!

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    Stank83
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    #1204208011

    1.Mulligan
    2.Davis

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