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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 47)

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    Rachel615
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    Sep 20th, 2018
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    #1204204944

    I really don’t think voters will care that Mulligan has signed up to do a film with Adam Sandler. Besides, he seems to be pivoting with his choices, too. Way too much speculation going on here – next Sunday needs to hurry up and put a stop to all this wild theorising.

    In retrospect I agree with you so I’ve deleted my earlier post. (Insomnia and anxiety can lead to regrettable speculation.)

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    marty
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    Aug 18th, 2020
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    #1204204966

    Trial got 1 Acting nomination which will not lead to a win. It does not have the AMPAS Acting Branch’s unanimous support. It has lost every significant BP indicator, missed Director, lost WGA to PYW. The SAG ensemble lineup included only 1 other BP nominee- it means very little for the race.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    Luca
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1204204989

    Also, um, this Carey Mulligan casting has 0,000% bearing on her Oscar chances. Some of these voters aren’t even watching the movies, so you really think they’re paying attention to some random casting news? That’s not how these people vote. And if that’s Netflix’s strategy to “undermine” Carey’s campaign (which is the most bizarre of all bizarre assumptions I have seen here) is leaking this, they’re doing a godawful job. Good lord, this season needs to end so sanity can return (though, will it ever?).

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204204998

    Trial got 1 Acting nomination which will not lead to a win. It does not have the AMPAS Acting Branch’s unanimous support. It has lost every significant BP indicator, missed Director, lost WGA to PYW. The SAG ensemble lineup included only 1 other BP nominee- it means very little for the race.

    Exactly! If the acting branch would have liked Trial that much, they would have nominated Oscar-winner Eddie Redmayne and Mark Rylance, Oscar-nominee Frank Langella, or Yahya Abdul-Mateen II who had a small, but baity part. Vote splitting is one thing, but let’s face it, they frauded Stanfield instead.

    That SAG win is messy as hell (over much better and more diverse casts), but other than that I think most people expected Trial to do much better overall. No Director nomination, no other acting nominations. Promising Young Woman took over the odds in Original Screenplay. Nomadland kept its lead all the way through, while Minari, Promising Young Woman, and Judas have all gained buzz over the last few weeks.

    So in terms of expectations vs. reality, Trial has flopped enormously. And I don’t mind it. These kinds of overly masculine, straight, and white stories have been rewarded plenty of times. It’s time to spread some love!

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204205000

    The last time two Black women were in the lead actress category was one of them, Diane Ross, was playing Billie Holiday. History repeats itself with Andra Day as Billie Holiday. Will Hollywood deny the juicy meaty role of Billie Holiday twice in a row? She is a historical icon that was the voice of the Civil Rights movement more poignant than what’s happening to unarmed Black people right now. The Academy will not pass up on Billie Holiday this time.

    I feel like people are really trying with the undeniable remarks with Day. Her film is critically panned. From that factual thing alone, she is not undeniable, and it wouldn’t be about denying her but going with more acclaimed films & contenders as it usually happens. Like she is no Streep, nor does she have Sandra Bullock’s star power that led to a Best Picture nomination for The Blind Side. She’s a newcomer on her first nomination. She can still win, but let’s not act as if she were an undeniable contender because all the others have better movies & more acclaimed performances here.

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    Crackleking
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    #1204205009

    I feel like people are really trying with the undeniable remarks with Day. Her film is critically panned. From that factual thing alone, she is not undeniable, and it wouldn’t be about denying her but going with more acclaimed films & contenders as it usually happens. Like she is no Streep, nor does she have Sandra Bullock’s star power that led to a Best Picture nomination for The Blind Side. She’s a newcomer on her first nomination. She can still win, but let’s not act as if she were an undeniable contender because all the others have better movies & more acclaimed performances here.

    I think we need to stop with this critically panned excuse to drive down her chances. While critics were lukewarm on this film, audience ratings are high (RT 86%) and considering that they loved Bohemian Rhapsody, a razzie worthy film, they could very well enjoy UsVBH too. Her biggest detractors to me are the are the lack of extra nominations, her newcomer status but biggest of all, her visibility. If she is going to lose the Oscar this will be the main reason why.

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    koksvardas
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    Feb 19th, 2021
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    #1204205015

    I think it’s between Mulligan, Day and Davis.

    Gun to my head, I’d say Viola.

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204205017

    I think we need to stop with this critically panned excuse to drive down her chances. While critics were lukewarm on this film, audience ratings are high (RT 86%) and considering that they loved Bohemian Rhapsody, a razzie worthy film, they could very well enjoy UsVBH too. Her biggest detractors to me are the are the lack of extra nominations, her newcomer status but biggest of all, her visibility. If she is going to lose the Oscar this will be the main reason why.

    Why should we? It’s literally the only argument I’ve heard against Glenn Close’s case all season long, and people weren’t afraid to mention critically panned or even just average films as an issue about plenty of contenders including Zellweger, Streep, Bullock etc. Why should Andra be treated differently? The Academy rarely awards
    prizes to films with bad reviews, that’s the truth, it can’t be beautified. It’s either you are a big star or a legend to overcome such reviews. It probably never happened to a newcomer.

    As you said, the lack of extra nominations is another issue. Hence why Bohemian Rhapsody is a bad example. It was one of the movie events of that year, a box office success, Malek swept the season, and the film was supported all around (AACTA, BAFTA, SAG, GOLDEN GLOBE). I thought it was absolutely mediocre, but still, it was a ten times bigger movie than Billie Holiday.

    Again, I can easily imagine that Andra Day will win in the end (although I bet now on Viola Davis, whose film is stronger and won an important award), but if she doesn’t, it won’t happen because racist Hollywood refused to acknowledge her, but because she is the sole nominee in a critically panned film, a newcomer with not much of a narrative, and she simply couldn’t overcome many obstacles.

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    Vicki Leekx
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    #1204205027

    I used to think Carey had a small chance of winning but then remembered this is the same Academy that chose recently to award safe choices over Huppert and Pike in Elle/Gone Girl. Carey’s performance, while people might find different, has at least generated the same or more levels of controversy, riding the #MeToo political wave and is totally against type. No way the Academy will award a provocative performance like this when there are safer choices instead. Too many feathers would be ruffled and honestly a large percentage of the older male voters will probably embrace the movie as a personal attack on their youth. Yes, the Academy has apparently broadened their voting membership, but there is no precedent for her to win. They’ve had chances, why should we expect them to have changed in a few years?

    FYC:

    Virginie Efira, Charlotte Rampling, Lambert Wilson, Benedetta (Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor)

    Jim Broadbent, Helen Mirren, The Duke (Actor, Supporting Actress)

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    wattsgold
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    Oct 6th, 2018
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    #1204205116

    I used to think Carey had a small chance of winning but then remembered this is the same Academy that chose recently to award safe choices over Huppert and Pike in Elle/Gone Girl. Carey’s performance, while people might find different, has at least generated the same or more levels of controversy, riding the #MeToo political wave and is totally against type. No way the Academy will award a provocative performance like this when there are safer choices instead. Too many feathers would be ruffled and honestly a large percentage of the older male voters will probably embrace the movie as a personal attack on their youth. Yes, the Academy has apparently broadened their voting membership, but there is no precedent for her to win. They’ve had chances, why should we expect them to have changed in a few years?

    So eloquent. Love this comment. We know this is the same group that bowed down to HW every time they could. The mess is that they are probably awarding PYW with Screenplay but drawing the line at Cassie, “the bad woman who calls out pigs on their crimes”.

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    Alan
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    Mar 28th, 2021
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    #1204205172

    Current state of the nominees:

     

    Andra Day with GG

     

    Viola Davis with SAG

     

    Carey Mulligan with CC

     

    Frances McDormand with BAFTA

     

    Vanessa Kirby

    Four-time Academy Award winner Frances McDormand

    Two-time Academy Award winner Anthony Hopkins

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    Piper Halliwell
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    Oct 20th, 2019
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    #1204205184

    Jes, that Kirby scene was one of the most forced acting scenes this year. I felt nothing other than knowing Kirby was acting. And these awards shows kept using it as her clip. Yikes. Here I said it.

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    Melvinezq
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    Aug 7th, 2020
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    #1204205209

    Kirby haters stay pressed! Volpi cup winner will always prevail. Perhaps not this season, but she hopefully has the rest of her life to perform greater and greater performances.

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    Luca
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1204205215

    Kirby did the best she could with that dialogue, honestly. And I blame the director & cinematographer for making that scene feel a bit too forced.

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    #1204205220
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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