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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 48)

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    wolfali
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    #1204212234

    If Carey wins with just CC lmao…Bong energy right there

    Now you mention it I’ve noticed a weird similarity between Parasite‘s trajectory and Promising Young Woman‘s. I obviously wouldn’t dare to predict Promising Young Woman to win Best Picture (I might not even predict Carey) and I do find Parasite to be on a higher level qualitatively even though I do like PYW (the only BP nominee the last decade I’ve preferred to Parasite is The Favourite).

    But it’s interesting how both films started off in this race as unconventional outsider picks with independent studio distribution that critics rallied behind (particularly in Actress for Mulligan and Director for Bong) over-performed at the Globes and were widely anticipated to win for Mulligan/Bong but lose to an unexpected late breaker who hardly had any pre hype behind them (Day/Mendes). Their film then also loses Screenplay to a script written by a household name and HFPA favourite. Mulligan and Bong then win at Critics Choice and their film rebounds with a win at WGA and both a win in Original Screenplay and one of the best film categories at BAFTA. Both Mulligan and Bong lose their respective guild awards to bigger names and branch favourites. Both films are also word of mouth hits that over-perform at the Oscars in nominations whilst their competition kind of under-performs (Hollywood and Mank missing Editing, Jojo Rabbit and Little Women and The Trial of the Chicago 7 and The Father missing directing etc).

    Again I’m not anywhere close to predicting Promising Young Woman for Best Picture because it obviously didn’t win either ACE or ADG like Parasite, I think Nomadland has it in the bag and Zhao is ridiculously ahead in director (I don’t even think Fennell is second there). But it’s interesting that there are some similarities in their trajectory. Perhaps it signifies the film is second/third in Picture.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    wolfali
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    #1204212276

    Bong wasn’t widely anticipated to win Best Director at the Globes. Most were predicting Tarantino or Scorsese. Bong and specially Mendes were dark horses.

    According to the GD odds Bong had 2718 users predicting him to win the Globe compared to 1089 for Scorsese, 539 for Tarantino and 119 for Mendes.

    https://www.goldderby.com/odds/graph/golden-globes-film-2020-predictions/best-film-director/

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    SN
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    #1204212289

    According to the GD odds Bong had 2718 users predicting him to win the Globe compared to 1089 for Scorsese, 539 for Tarantino and 119 for Mendes.

    https://www.goldderby.com/odds/graph/golden-globes-film-2020-predictions/best-film-director/

    I’ll confess I didn’t use to post here a lot and I didn’t pay much attention to the Globes last year (I didn’t even make winners predictions here), so I couldn’t tell if most GD users were predicting him. But in other sites I follow awards races, I always had the impression Bong wasn’t very predicted at the Globes. Seems like I was wrong.

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    wolfali
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    #1204212294

    I’ll confess I didn’t use to post here a lot and I didn’t pay much attention to the Globes last year

    Haha no worries. Me too! I quite literally only found out I wasn’t the only one who thought Zellweger and Phoenix would easily win over Johansson and Driver at the Globes like last month lol.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Milk Money
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    #1204212296

    All the votes are in, gals.

    G

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    wolfali
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    #1204212302

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Luca
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    #1204212428

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    Atypical
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    #1204212433

    Andra Day premiered her new single on Kimmel Monday night, so she was fighting for votes to the end! Love it!

    Vanessa Kirby somehow winning with only Venice would be beyond iconic. She doesn’t get the praise that she should around here, so much respect for making this lineup regardless!

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    rosieangel
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    #1204212477

    Hey guys! I figured i’d been reading for long enough so about time I dipped my foot in the water.

    I really want Carey to win but think that it’s between her and Viola. I don’t think Frances will win a third in such quick succession. It’s such a strong group this year that I won’t be unhappy if any of the group win, but I think the symbolism of the Acadamy awarding a performance of a woman like Cassie would be quite something.

     

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    Rachel615
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    #1204212531

    I’m somewhat surprised that so many are now predicting that Frances McDormand will win her third Oscar just 3 years after winning her second one. The actors who failed to win a third despite getting at least THREE MORE nominations AFTER winning their second include Denzel Washington, Jane Fonda, Robert DeNiro, and Tom Hanks. Spencer Tracy failed to win a third even though he was nominated SEVEN more times after winning his second, and Bette Davis failed to win a third even though she was nominated EIGHT more times after winning her second. It’s just so hard to win a third Oscar.

    And of course, for very good reasons, she is widely respected and beloved, but so is Meryl Streep, and it took her TWENTY-NINE YEARS to win her third Oscar, and Meryl STILL doesn’t have a third one in the Best Actress category.

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    DrewN92
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    #1204212583

    I’m somewhat surprised that so many are now predicting that Frances McDormand will win her third Oscar just 3 years after winning her second one. The actors who failed to win a third despite getting at least THREE MORE nominations AFTER winning their second include Denzel Washington, Jane Fonda, Robert DeNiro, and Tom Hanks. Spencer Tracy failed to win a third even though he was nominated SEVEN more times after winning his second, and Bette Davis failed to win a third even though she was nominated EIGHT more times after winning her second. It’s just so hard to win a third Oscar. And of course, for very good reasons, she is widely respected and beloved, but so is Meryl Streep, and it took her TWENTY-NINE YEARS to win her third Oscar, and Meryl STILL doesn’t have a third one in the Best Actress category.

    This has really been the only reason I’ve held back from predicting McDormand. But being the face of the BP winner in such an unprecedented year with a fractured race like this, it kind of makes sense.

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    mi_gi_1988
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    #1204212599

    EXPERTS Votes update

    #1 Carey 11 -1

    #2 Viola 10 +2

    OMG

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    Bassett
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    Dec 21st, 2016
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    #1204212604

    Just because Meryl waited 29 years to win a 3rd Oscar doesn’t necessarily mean that Frances cannot do it faster. Hilary Swank went 2/2 in 5 years while Al Pacino is still waiting for his 2nd (and failed again last year) after.. 29 years

    Another important detail that people tend to forget when talking about the Meryl “struggle” to win her 3rd is the fact that none of her performances between 1985 and 2017 were in BP nominated movies. Deer Hunter, KvK and Out of Africa were all nominated and won. Then nothing until The Post (and that one still underperformed)

    That means she was never helped by the strength of her movie and it was all about her performance. Frances (likely) is in the literal BP winner. Same way Day-Lewis and Hepburn were in massive, baity, double-digits nominated vehicles. Hell even As Good As It Gets was a big hit for whatever reason

    Frances can absolutely win with a movie as widely beloved as Nomadland. Meryl hasn’t had one since Out of Africa (and even that one aged terribly)

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis, Frances McDormand
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supporting Actor - Colman Domingo, Glynn Turman
    Best Picture - Nomadland
    Best Director - Chloé Zhao
    SAG Ensemble - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Best Cinematography - Nomadland

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    mi_gi_1988
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    #1204212610

    Checking experts votes everyday to see now that none of experts predicted Olivia Colman winning in 2019 https://www.goldderby.com/odds/graph/oscars-2019/best-actress/

    I´m a mess

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    Luca
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    #1204212615

    EXPERTS Votes update #1 Carey 11 -1 #2 Viola 10 +2 OMG

    Do these people have insider information or what is happening?

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