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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 49)

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    lhdang2000
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    Nov 23rd, 2020
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    #1204218562

    I’ve predicted Carey since early December and I’m sticking with her no matter what. It’s weird because I’ve never once even tempted to switch to another person. I know it’s more of a hope-dicting at this point, but if I made it through the Globes, SAG and BAFTA without switching her out, I’m not going to do it a day before the ceremony just for prediction points.

    Besides, I don’t know why, but I have a good feeling about her. I think she knows her chance is slim based on her reaction when she won the Spirit though.

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    Oscirus Jones
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    Mar 8th, 2021
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    #1204218564

    Honestly carey has a really nice award spread just external factors have stopped her from putting this away. Shes still very much the favorite methinks

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    Barbra please
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    Oct 21st, 2018
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    #1204218566

     

    This queen is locked at #1 for months in my prediction. She should win or Tina will embarass me in front of a reporter. A REPORTER!

     

    WHY ARE YOU ALL SWITCHING WHEN I TOLD YOU, NO SWITCH EVER!!!

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204218571

    Recently, the Spirit Awards have a very good record in this category.

    In the last 10 years, they have a match of 7/10.

    The other three winners could also be explained as Michelle Williams was the only Oscar nominee in her category, and Close and Huppert both won without the eventual Oscar-winner around as well.

    And between 2004 and 2009, and between 2000-2002, they did not nominate the Oscar-winner. Theron won in 2003. Swank won in 1999. etc.

    So based on these stats, it’s either Andra Day, or clearly Carey Mulligan over Davis and McDormand. We’ll see. 🙂

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    oscarin7
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    Dec 25th, 2016
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    #1204218618

    Sticking with Mulligan until the end

    Duh!!!

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    oscarin7
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    Dec 25th, 2016
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    #1204218620

    I’m sticking with Carey Mulligan. I’d rather go down with the ship than switch and regret it. I’m hopedicting as well. I justify my prediction of her mainly because of the fact that members from the whole industry are voting. I think that gives her and McDormand (and Davis to a lesser extent) a clear advantage, being in Best Picture nominees, or in Davis’ case, a film with multiple nominations. Also, of the really major ceremonies, only BAFTA was voted on industry-wide, and Mulligan wasn’t nominated. We don’t know how she will fare with non-actors.

    I’m the same with predicting Glenn Close. I would rather be wrong than regret not predicting her and then she wins.

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    Viridiana
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    Dec 27th, 2019
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    #1204218622

    The thing with the Spirit win is that, if I’m not mistaken, all of those were clearly  sweeping so we don’t really know if that coincidence is genuine or just people being sheep.

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    oscarin7
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    Dec 25th, 2016
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    #1204218625

    Recently, the Spirit Awards have a very good record in this category. In the last 10 years, they have a match of 7/10. The other three winners could also be explained as Michelle Williams was the only Oscar nominee in her category, and Close and Huppert both won without the eventual Oscar-winner around as well. And between 2004 and 2009, and between 2000-2002, they did not nominate the Oscar-winner. Theron won in 2003. Swank won in 1999. etc. So based on these stats, it’s either Andra Day, or clearly Carey Mulligan over Davis and McDormand. We’ll see. 🙂

    Things are looking great for Carey. Andra Day was good in her film but being the sole nominee is gonna affect her, not to mention the negative response to the film itself. I think Carey will win, but I would not be surprised if Viola or Frances wins.

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    jercooks
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    Nov 28th, 2019
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    #1204218629

    Vanessa Kirby is in my fifth slot because there isn’t a way for her to sneak in.

    Andra Day is in my 4th slot because there hasn’t been a woman who won Best Actress for their first role since Marlee Matlin in the 80s. Also, Andra’s not the only one playing a real singer, and Viola had to go through a more drastic physical transformation.

    Viola Davis is in my 3rd slot because I think if voters are going to reward MRBB for its great performances, it would be for Chadwick. Only MRBB stans would vote for both Chadwick and Viola, and I don’t think there are many in the Academy. She may have won the SAG, but that guild really adores her. This is her 5th individual SAG award in the span of 10 years. Also, when was the last time a movie not nominated for best picture got both lead acting prizes?

    Carey Mulligan is in my 2nd slot because I’m speculating that PYW would be very divisive among the older voters, might get dismissed for being too “genre”. The hype behind her chances of bagging the Oscar has felt like a film twitter thing.

    I predict Frances McDormand would win because the only real strike against her is she’s won twice already. She’s the centre of the film most likely to win Best Picture, so why not her? Also, there’s only 3 people alive today who has 3 acting Oscars: Nicholson, Streep and Day-Lewis, and I don’t know anyone who would oppose adding McDormand to that list. If she didn’t win for Three Billboards, I think she would be the obvious frontrunner here.

    That’s just the way I’ve tried to make it make sense in my head for my gold derby predictions, but if any of my top three wins, I wouldnt be surprised.

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    oscarin7
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    #1204218631

    The thing with the Spirit win is that, if I’m not mistaken, all of those were clearly sweeping so we don’t really know if that coincidence is genuine or just people being sheep.

    Well this is an usual year and since there was no one sweeping, Carey winning at the Spirit Awards gives her a boost. Doesn’t necessarily mean she’s locked to win but she’s in a great position as of now.

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    oscarin7
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    #1204218635

    Vanessa Kirby is in my fifth slot because there isn’t a way for her to sneak in. Andra Day is in my 4th slot because there hasn’t been a woman who won Best Actress for their first role since Marlee Matlin in the 80s. Also, Andra’s not the only one playing a real singer, and Viola had to go through a more drastic physical transformation. Viola Davis is in my 3rd slot because I think if voters are going to reward MRBB for its great performances, it would be for Chadwick. Only MRBB stans would vote for both Chadwick and Viola, and I don’t think there are many in the Academy. She may have won the SAG, but that guild really adores her. This is her 5th individual SAG award in the span of 10 years. Also, when was the last time a movie not nominated for best picture got both lead acting prizes? Carey Mulligan is in my 2nd slot because I’m speculating that PYW would be very divisive among the older voters, might get dismissed for being too “genre”. The hype behind her chances of bagging the Oscar has felt like a film twitter thing. I predict Frances McDormand would win because the only real strike against her is she’s won twice already. She’s the centre of the film most likely to win Best Picture, so why not her? Also, there’s only 3 people alive today who has 3 acting Oscars: Nicholson, Streep and Day-Lewis, and I don’t know anyone who would oppose adding McDormand to that list. If she didn’t win for Three Billboards, I think she would be the obvious frontrunner here. That’s just the way I’ve tried to make it make sense in my head for my gold derby predictions, but if any of my top three wins, I wouldnt be surprised.

    Good analysis. While I agree with you in that Frances is the centre of what seems to be the Best Picture front runner, she has two big obstacles in front of her. The first is one you mentioned, she already has 2 Oscars and she would’ve had to be sweeping to add a third one. The other challenge is that Nomadland is most likely winning Best Picture so she’s already predicted to win for producing that film. In recent years we have witnessed that the Academy likes to spread the wealth. Therefore, I think Mulligan is in a great position to finally win her first Oscar.

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    leon375
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    Sep 10th, 2013
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    #1204218641

    I’m rooting so bad for Carey . I’m gonna be so damn happy if she wins. I’m a fan since An Education and I’ve watched all of her movies. Her filmography is exquisite and I have 3 to 4 performances of her that I will forever remember as acting masterclasses.

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    lhdang2000
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    Nov 23rd, 2020
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    #1204218649

    Also, there’s only 3 people alive today who has 3 acting Oscars: Nicholson, Streep and Day-Lewis, and I don’t know anyone who would oppose adding McDormand to that list. If she didn’t win for Three Billboards, I think she would be the obvious frontrunner here.

    I think the problem with McDormand is:

    Nicholson won BA in 1976 and 1998 and BSA in 1984. He’s the most-nominated actor. And that’s a 14-year gap between his second and third win.

    Streep won BSA in 1980 and BA in 1983 and 2012. She’s the most-nominated actress. That’s a 29-year gap between her second and third win.

    Day-Lewis is the closest to McDormand, winning BA in 1990, 2008 and 2013. But that’s still five years between them compared to only three years for McDormand, and I would argue Lincoln, directed by Spielberg, is one of the baitiest roles of all time.

    I don’t know, maybe voters won’t find it that much of a problem. But I do think the people who remember it will notice that they’re giving McDormand her 3rd and 4th Oscars in the same night, and that will be a problem for her.

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    oscarin7
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    Dec 25th, 2016
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    #1204218653

    I’m rooting so bad for Carey . I’m gonna be so damn happy if she wins. I’m a fan since An Education and I’ve watched all of her movies. Her filmography is exquisite and I have 3 to 4 performances of her that I will forever remember as acting masterclasses.

    Yes! She should have won for An Education. Sandra Bullock was good in The Blind Side but Carey really gave the best performance that year and it’s so sad she didn’t win. It will be very sad if she loses again this year. I’m really hoping that she finally wins. 🙏🏽

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204218655

    Frances doesn’t really have a narrative or a transformative baity role to pull a third acting Oscar. Harvey Weinstein pushed for Streep’s 3rd Oscar heavily. Daniel Day-Lewis played one of the most iconic American historical figures of all time. And we all know how the lead acting category have been dominated by biopics. If Daniel Day-Lewis in Gangs of New York could not win a second Oscar with Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA. It will be an uphill battle for an extremely subtle acting role for Frances.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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