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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 8)

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203865287

    You can keep on saying this, won’t change the fact that the movie is out now and everyone watching it can tell it’s garbage. “cRiTiCs hAd a cLeAr aNd oBviOuS aGenDa”- and what agenda was that?

    Exactly. the film isn’t even political, and critics’ biggest complaint is actually the fact that they stripped away all the politics from the novel. Saying that critics hate this film because of politics is just as loony as saying critic’s only liked The Last Jedi because it had women and POC in it.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    wolfali
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    #1203865752

    Meryl could win globe without winning oscar. She has more globes than oscar wins. Talk about blind stanning.

    I’m sorry but it is quite ironic that you’re saying me thinking Meryl is unlikely is blind stanning. Especially considering how you on the previous page were literally accusing critics of trashing something you are rooting for of trashing it because they have some sort of political agenda.

    Me saying unless Meryl is coming for Oscar no.4 wasn’t me saying she needs to win the Oscar to win the Globe but she needs to be win competitive for the Oscar to win the Globe. Meryl has 9 Golden Globes, one of which was for Angels in America and the other being the Cecil de Mille award. 3 of her other 7 Golden Globes were for her Oscar winning performances. Her 4 other Golden Globes were for The French Lieutenant’s Woman (for which she won a BAFTA too), Adaptation (which she was considered win competitive for until Catherine Zeta-Jones switched to supporting for Chicago) and The Devil Wears Prada and Julie and Julia (both of which she was win competitive for and had the narrative of “give her a third going for her”).

    Meryl Streep doesn’t have a narrative for a “give her a fourth” and she doesn’t seem to have some undeniable performance in The Prom for her to be win competitive for the Oscar. We literally get into this conversation everywhere (see people claiming she was a LOCK for the win for Big Little Lies last year but she didn’t win because there was no interest to award her the Emmy).

    Now moving onto Mulligan. Unless another contender magics themselves up from thin air in that category (or Ma Rainey frauds itself) Mulligan does have this nearly on lock and is the only contender closest to a lock in a precursor ceremony. This category historically goes towards the prestige performance or the performance that is likelier to get nominated and/or win the Oscar. Mulligan has both of those. See Olivia Colman winning over Emily Blunt, J-Law over Amy Schumer, Amy Adams over Julia Louis-Dreyfus etc.

    It is not blind stanning to consider Mulligan to almost have the Globe locked up (notice how I said almost). People need to get over their bias against the possibility an edgier performance is winning that Globe in this strange strange year.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    John Berchmans
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    I’m sorry but it is quite ironic that you’re saying me thinking Meryl is unlikely is blind stanning. Especially considering how you on the previous page you were literally accusing critics of trashing something you are rooting for of trashing it because they have some sort of political agenda.

    Go get em Wolfali!

    Also, I hope you feel better soon. So sorry about the diagnosis.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    wolfali
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    #1203865882

    Go get em Wolfali! Also, I hope you feel better soon. So sorry about the diagnosis.

    It’s ok. Thanks for the get well wish.

    With Mulligan I know because she currently gives my favourite performance of that category this year (notice how I said currently) it sounds like I’m biased but I just don’t understand why people are even thinking it’s delusional to consider her for the Globe win (or a near lock). That category is empty and she’s got the unequivocal backing of one of the most powerful distributors on the awards circuit.

    I mean I know people are still annoyed because Lupita missed (I am too) and Erivo got in but this is a completely different scenario. I mean Promising Young Woman is a completely different type of film in comparison to Us tonally anyway.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Dorsey
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    Dec 31st, 2017
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    #1203866057

    Can we stop acting like “the critics” are a monolith? Some of you really think everyone on rotten tomatoes has a group chat where they conspire to ruin your fave’s oscar chances. Embarrassing.

    FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
    Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
    Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203866156

    With Mulligan I know because she currently gives my favourite performance of that category this year (notice how I said currently) it sounds like I’m biased but I just don’t understand why people are even thinking it’s delusional to consider her for the Globe win (or a near lock). That category is empty and she’s got the unequivocal backing of one of the most powerful distributors on the awards circuit.

    To be honest I’m actually not so sure Mulligan is locked. Promising Young Woman just doesn’t seem like the type of film the Globes would connect with, whereas The Prom seems right up their alley. But like I said before, you’ve seen the film and I haven’t, so I’ll trust your judgement.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    estrelas
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    #1203866205

    To be honest I’m actually not so sure Mulligan is locked. Promising Young Woman just doesn’t seem like the type of film the Globes would connect with, whereas The Prom seems right up their alley. But like I said before, you’ve seen the film and I haven’t, so I’ll trust your judgement.

    I could see a The Favourite type of scenario. It’s not the typical movie they usually like but they still reward the performance, considering it’s the most acclaimed and talked about of the bunch.

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    wolfali
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    #1203866242

    To be honest I’m actually not so sure Mulligan is locked. Promising Young Woman just doesn’t seem like the type of film the Globes would connect with, whereas The Prom seems right up their alley. But like I said before, you’ve seen the film and I haven’t, so I’ll trust your judgement.

    Yes The Prom is probably likelier to win Picture at the Globes if it gets decent reviews but like I said in that particular category they never go for what is right up their alley in that category. They go for the performance likeliest to land at the Oscars and/or the one with more prestige. Mary Poppins Returns was right up the HFPA’s alley yet they went for Colman over Blunt. They nominated Into the Woods three times yet they still went with Adams for Big Eyes over Blunt. They went with J-Law over Schumer and McCarthy.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Lexa
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    I’m sorry but it is quite ironic that you’re saying me thinking Meryl is unlikely is blind stanning. Especially considering how you on the previous page you were literally accusing critics of trashing something you are rooting for of trashing it because they have some sort of political agenda. Me saying unless Meryl is coming for Oscar no.4 wasn’t me saying she needs to win the Oscar to win the Globe but she needs to be win competitive for the Oscar to win the Globe. Meryl has 9 Golden Globes, one of which was for Angels in America and the other being the Cecil de Mille award. 3 of her other 7 Golden Globes were for her Oscar winning performances. Her 4 other Golden Globes were for The French Lieutenant’s Woman (for which she won a BAFTA too), Adaptation (which she was considered win competitive for until Catherine Zeta-Jones switched to supporting for Chicago) and The Devil Wears Prada and Julie and Julia (both of which she was win competitive for and had the narrative of “give her a third going for her”). Meryl Streep doesn’t have a narrative for a “give her a fourth” and she doesn’t seem to have some undeniable performance in The Prom for her to be win competitive for the Oscar. We literally get into this conversation everywhere (see people claiming she was a LOCK for the win for Big Little Lies last year but she didn’t win because there was no interest to award her the Emmy). Now moving onto Mulligan. Unless another contender magics themselves up from thin air in that category (or Ma Rainey frauds itself) Mulligan does have this nearly on lock and is the only contender closest to a lock in a precursor ceremony. This category historically goes towards the prestige performance or the performance that is likelier to get nominated and/or win the Oscar. Mulligan has both of those. See Olivia Colman winning over Emily Blunt, J-Law over Amy Schumer, Amy Adams over Julia Louis-Dreyfus etc. It is not blind stanning to consider Mulligan to almost have the Globe locked up (notice how I said almost). People need to get over their bias against the possibility an edgier performance is winning that Globe in this strange strange year.

    Some people here are far more biased than the voters themselves.

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    wolfali
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    Some people here are more biased than the voters themselves.

    I mean I don’t understand how a black comedy thriller is at all comparable with a Jordan Peele horror movie or two A24 acclaimed horror films that both feature on the lists people have of “films that are the creepiest films in existence”.

    Provided Promising Young Woman does become a bit divisive towards the end but someone said already that this isn’t the same Academy that we’ve seen before. I mean we just saw how they awarded Joker last year and whilst I know that film had an excellent box office it had a more divisive political message than Promising Young Woman will have and there were more gruesome (or rather dark and scary scenes) in that than there are in Promising Young Woman.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Luca
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    There is a false, unfair equivalency being drawn here between us pointing out that the academy might be biased toward PYW and our own bias toward it. You can’t deny that the academy gravitates toward conventional, standard pictures. If you can convince me that the so-called “steak eaters” are going to go for this, then please do. Obviously, I have not yet seen the movie, but the trailer was quite revealing in that regard. Nonetheless, I’m sure it’s a terrific film anchored by a terrific turn from Mulligan.

    I see it being compared to The Favourite, but that one was already more in their wheelhouse, being a period, costume drama on the surface (although ultimately not in any way a conventional one).

    A Fervent Believer in the Church of Viola Davis

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    wolfali
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    There is a false equivalency being established here between us pointing out that the academy might be biased toward PYW and our own bias toward it. You can’t deny that the academy gravitates toward conventional, standard pictures. If you can convince me that the so-called “steak eaters” are going to go for this, then please do. Obviously, I have not yet seen the movie, but the trailer was quite revealing in that regard. Nonetheless, I’m sure it’s a terrific film anchored by a terrific turn from Mulligan.

    But the thing is the Academy may not entirely bedominated by these “steak eaters” anymore. You mentioned yourself that this isn’t the same Academy it was 10/15 years ago. We just saw a Korean movie win Best Picture. Joker got the most noms of any film last year. Olivia Colman won Best Actress for a film that a lot found quite inaccessible. A story about the romance between two gay black men won Best Picture over La La Land which was a literal homage to musicals.

    I really don’t understand how Promising Young Woman is being treated as the equivalent to Us this year. I mean don’t get me wrong I loved Us and Lupita’s performance but like I said people I know who liked horror films found the film to be too inaccessible never mind those who don’t like horror films.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Bassett
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    Amy should not get a nomination for this. For her own sake. I’m sorry- you can call it “acting” if you want- but this is a melodramatic, meaningless, mess. It’s great if people are actually enjoying it though, because I did not.

    Yeah I’m watching it and.. it’s a mess

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis, Frances McDormand
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supporting Actor - Colman Domingo, Glynn Turman
    Best Picture - Nomadland
    Best Director - Chloé Zhao
    SAG Ensemble - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Best Cinematography - Nomadland

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    LLLhawks
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    Get well soon, Wolfali!

    Kinda late on this but Cotillard and Huppert got in for movies not nominated in Best Foreign Film. Loren can still happen if the Academy really wants her to happen.

    I just love movies. And awards.

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