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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 8)

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    CateNicole
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    #1203876049

    The narrative that PoaW is inaccessible has never made sense to me–which I’ve made clear–although I definitely understand that some people may not watch if it stirs up their own personal trauma. But also, this movie is truly for those people. It will be watched.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203876057

    At least you’re not being hypocritical about it with the scenario you’re posing. Sometimes when people rule things out on here and are proven wrong they pretend that they predicted it all along and start to rewrite history (see what people are already saying about how they apparently didn’t “doubt Zellweger and Phoenix”). On a separate note I think it’s either Chadwick and Kirby who win or Hopkins and Davis. I can’t see both Chadwick and Davis winning for a film that (whilst I am predicting it in both) is vulnerable in directing end editing and I can’t see how both lead winners are white people.

    Even though I’m skeptical about Kirby’s chances, she certainly in the running. I can acknowledge that.

    Also, I fully agree. The last time two leading Actors won for the same film was over 20 years ago. The Academy prefers to spread the wealth now. Not to mention, the Best Supporting Actor winner will probably be a POC, and I don’t want to sound racist, but there’s no way the Academy gives 3/4 of its Oscars to black people. They’re still too old fashioned to do that. That’s why I’m predicting Hopkins in Best Actor, Davis in Best Actress, and either Odom Jr. or Kaluuya in Supporting Actor.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    wolfali
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    #1203876101

    What’s interesting about Kirby is that she’s talked A LOT about how she is someone who has never given birth before and befriended people who had suffered the loss of a child or a miscarriage and watched a woman with a difficult birth actually give birth. She’s spoken about it at length in interviews and mentioned it in her Volpi cup speech which was widely talked about when it happened. She also was talking about the trauma she’s gotten from playing Martha and literally broke down in her Esquire interview.

    That type of commitment or method acting is really baity to voters. Look at Renee winning last year for playing Judy Garland. Yes the fact she played Garland helped her but she also sung Over the Rainbow live overcoming a notorious longstanding fear Zellweger had (she has anxiety when it comes to live singing and dropped out of performing the original song submission of Chicago at the Oscars and was replaced by Queen Latifah). Look at Joaquin Phoenix’s transformational performance last year psychologically and physically. Look at Rami Malek playing one of the most iconic and beloved singers in the world (I mean his film literally got a Best Picture nomination because it was about Queen). Look at Brie Larson isolating herself in her home without any access to technology or the internet to prepare for Room. Leo and the bear etc.

    I mean I am certain Davis is excellent in Ma Rainey (she pretty much always is) and yes she did gain weight for the role but voters (or at least nowadays) gravitate more towards the more difficult/traumatising role and this year Kirby seems to have that (obviously Day and Zendaya could have a more difficult one but they’re TBC).

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    JROCK1772
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    #1203876128

    That type of commitment or method acting is really baity to voters. Look at Renee winning last year for playing Judy Garland. Yes the fact she played Garland helped her but she also sung Over the Rainbow live overcoming a notorious longstanding fear Zellweger had (she has anxiety when it comes to live singing and dropped out of performing the original song submission of Chicago at the Oscars and was replaced by Queen Latifah). Look at Joaquin Phoenix’s transformational performance last year psychologically and physically. Look at Rami Malek playing one of the most iconic and beloved singers in the world (I mean his film literally got a Best Picture nomination because it was about Queen). Look at Brie Larson isolating herself in her home without any access to technology or the internet to prepare for Room. Leo and the bear etc.

    I feel like this argument could easily be made for Davis or McDormand. I’m not set on a frontrunner for this race, but Kirby isn’t the only one with a demanding role. Davis’ role requires overcoming essentially the exact same obstacles you mentioned for Zellweger, with Davis’ performance having been noted by the likes of Denzel and Oprah as being incredibly transformative.

    Do I think Kirby will likely score and nomination, with a potential win? Absolutely! However, I don’t think she is outpacing anyone based on the logic you used, as Davis and McDormand are receiving similar attention for how they have committed to their roles.

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    wolfali
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    #1203876177

    With regards to Pieces of a Woman‘s best picture chances I don’t know why people are ruling it out because of its reviews. <i>Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close </i>literally got far worse reviews and only got nominated for Picture and S. Actor.

    <i>Pieces of a Woman</i> can happen in Picture. I mean it’s already being tipped by some publications as a SAG ensemble nominee (some mentioned that on Twitter when the SoMe embargo was lifted). If The Prom is a critical dud and something like News of the World flops then there’s a theoretical path for it to Picture and it can literally get into Picture, Actress and S. Actress.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203876179

    And Kord used to be my friend that year

    Dolores is Kord lol.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wattsgold
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    #1203876261

    Kirby better shut some naysayers the. fuck. up. No way to say anyone is locked for the dildo, but she is very strong as of November and hopefully will give some speeches.

    I am also rewatching Mulligan in her trailer daily. That Toxic version is really good.

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    David
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    #1203876271

    With regards to Pieces of a Woman‘s best picture chances I don’t know why people are ruling it out because of its reviews. <i>Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close </i>literally got far worse reviews and only got nominated for Picture and S. Actor. <i>Pieces of a Woman</i> can happen in Picture. I mean it’s already being tipped by some publications as a SAG ensemble nominee (some mentioned that on Twitter when the SoMe embargo was lifted). If The Prom is a critical dud and something like News of the World flops then there’s a theoretical path for it to Picture and it can literally get into Picture, Actress and S. Actress.

    No way Poaw gets into picture even if News and The Prom flops. I understand the fact that this film may not be as inaccessible as critics are making it out to be, but based off the reviews alone I can predict that this film has a 10% chance of making it into picture.

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    Hoster1
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    #1203876304

    Pieces of a Woman is coming nowhere near SAG Ensemble nomination.

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    JackO
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    #1203876335

    Pieces of a Woman is coming nowhere near SAG Ensemble nomination.

    lol there are stans that actually think this?!

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    wolfali
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    #1203876342

    Kirby better shut some naysayers the. fuck. up. No way to say anyone is locked for the dildo, but she is very strong as of November and hopefully will give some speeches. I am also rewatching Mulligan in her trailer daily. That Toxic version is really good.

    Mulligan is interesting because she could either be the Jake Gyllenhaal of this year or the Joaquin Phoenix. The performance is worthy (I won’t go into so much detail about it in order to avoid sounding like a broken record) but there is a part of the film that will prove divisive for some.

    That being said what really helps her is that it doesn’t really affect her performance and pretty much everyone who has seen the film has said she’s nomination and win worthy and in this asterisk year people watching your film and loving your performance is all you need.

    I can’t wait for Kirby to shut the naysayers up. It will be as satisfying as when the cast of Succession shut their naysayers up on here when they scored 9 acting nominations at the Emmys when people (ironically the same Kirby naysayers) said they would get shut out.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203876345

    Pieces of a Woman is coming nowhere near SAG Ensemble nomination.

    Says the person who thinks Maria Bakalova is likelier than Ellen Burstyn for an Oscar nomination…

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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