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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 8)

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203857462

    Pretty tired of hearing how AMPAS will shy away from such an unconventional performance.

    They just did it last year though, with Lupita Nyong’o. It will probably happen again.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    wolfali
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    #1203857477

    I don’t see how we don’t have a lineup that includes Davis, Kirby, McDormand and Mulligan. No one else seems to have enough buzz.

    The final slot is between Zendaya, Winslet and Loren imo.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203857485

    They just did it last year though, with Lupita Nyong’o. It will probably happen again.

    Promising Young Woman is WAY more accessible as a film than Us and has a much friendlier release date.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Viridiana
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    #1203857532

    The thing with Mulligan is that she came back to CAA this summer. I know people usually understimates the agency´s power but, if she has the performance, I could see them giving her way more support than what WME had been giving her in the past seven years.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203857534

    Promising Young Woman is WAY more accessible as a film than Us and has a much friendlier release date.

    From the trailer, that didn’t seem like the case at all. It actually seemed less accessible. But you’ve actually seen the film, so I’ll take your word for it.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    nevkm
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    Jan 3rd, 2018
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    #1203857572

    Promising Young Woman is WAY more accessible as a film than Us and has a much friendlier release date.

    And with a HIGHLY topical theme.

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    Lil Tony
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    Sep 17th, 2018
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    #1203857600

    Is Promising Young Woman not about a young woman fighting against her ex lover after a disastrous relationship?

    FYC:

    Riz Ahmed- Best Actor for Sound Of Metal
    Daniel Kaluuya - Best Supporting Actor for Judas and the Black Messiah
    Amanda Seyfried - Best Supporting Actress for Mank

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    AmnistY21
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    #1203857619

    Is Promising Young Woman not about a young woman fighting against her ex lover after a disastrous relationship?

    No, it’s about rape culture. Not saying more because I don’t want to spoil it for you.

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    wolfali
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    #1203857632

    From the trailer, that didn’t seem like the case at all. It actually seemed less accessible. But you’ve actually seen the film, so I’ll take your word for it.

    There is one part of Promising Young Woman that I can understand dividing people but I mean I know people who love horror films who were so terrified watching Us that they ran out of the auditorium screaming lol.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    AmnistY21
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    #1203857638

    They just did it last year though, with Lupita Nyong’o. It will probably happen again.

    The comparison doesn’t make much sense outside the fact that both roles are somewhat unusual and complex. But we’re talking different genres here.  Us is a horror whereas PYW is a dark comedy with a very topical subject matter and as opposed to Lupita who only hit SAG and CC  I think Carey is much better positioned to hit all of them.

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    wolfali
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    #1203857670

    I feel like people on here keep using the word “inaccessible” incessantly on here. Whether it’s with the description of Promising Young WomanPieces of a Woman or even at the Emmys with EuphoriaUnorthodox and What We Do with the Shadows.

    Promising Young Woman is a dark comedy about rape culture and explores its heroine basically trying to get justice (I’m trying to say this in a non spoilery way) whilst the film also has a romantic subplot that makes When Harry Met Sally look like a serious drama. Yet people on here act as if it’s like a horror film like UsMidsommar and Hereditary. It also has a very topical story, a writer-director who has a lot of buzz for her acting work on the likely Drama Series Emmy winner and stars Carey Mulligan in her buzziest and career best performance. It’s already locked for two Globe nominations (Picture and Actress) and will 90% likely win Actress there unless another comedy contender gains steam. Yet people act like it’s a small indie that no one will watch apart from cult horror fans which I find bizarre. I mean this film is Focus Features’ biggest push this year and is produced by and being campaigned heavily by Margot F***ing Robbie.

    Some people say that Kirby’s performance is inaccessible and that <i>Pieces of a Woman </i>will not get in anywhere apart from for her because it’s too depressing a film and the storyline around the protagonist’s miscarriage is going to be too inaccessible for voters. Yet these are the same people who voted for Manchester by the Sea. The same people who voted for The Revenant with its violent and graphic scenes.

    Someone when referring to a separate point said that this isn’t the same academy that it was 10 years ago and I think that’s spot on. It’s a more diverse Academy in taste and you can really see that through their picks for nominations and winners. People were assuming Hillbilly Elegy would do well because it had a traditionally Oscar bait premise but outside of Green Book we haven’t seen traditional Oscar bait movies do well very recently. Just last year a South Korean masterpiece that was dubbed “inaccessible” by many on this forum at the time won Best Picture over a Sam Mendes war movie. Joaquin Phoenix won an Oscar for one of the most divisive Best Picture contenders ever over Adam Driver in what was essentially a budget remake of Kramer vs Kramer. A film about a boy whose best friend was an imaginary Hitler did very well and was potentially the Picture runner up!

    It’s not even only last year. We saw how a science fiction/fantasy film beat Three Billboards for Best Picture. We saw how Olivia Colman won for a performance in a film that didn’t do as well as it should have (that was also dubbed “too inaccessible”) over Glenn Close with a Julianne Moore traditional Oscar bait overdue narrative and Lady Gaga in a remake of A Star is BornMoonlight  a phenomenal indie about a relationship between two gay black people won Best Picture over an homage to Hollywood musicals.

    This isn’t the same academy anymore. Oscar bait films don’t get as far as they used to. Outside of Green Book and the every year biopic voters seem to want newer and bolder pieces of work (apart from horrors which they genuinely do hate). Look at how Dark Waters from an Academy friendly director with an Erin Brockovich type story completely flopped with the Academy this year.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Luca
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    #1203857696

    I think “inaccessible” is an overgeneralized term and thus not appropriately applicable in this context. However, you can’t deny that Pieces of a Woman is going to be tougher sell than some other movies, simply because it’s such a heavy, depressing, tragic topic that it deals with (while we’re living through a year marked by tragedy). Promising Young Woman, on the other hand, looks — notice how I am not saying “is” — too offbrand — we know how much the academy loves genre movies and especially its leading ladies. I think we’d all love to be proven wrong! Lupita being snubbed last year still stings, and will always sting.

    The TV academy has been much better with recognizing a multitude of genres.

    A Fervent Believer in the Church of Viola Davis

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    wolfali
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    #1203857703

    And with viola even being in less than half of the film critics said all her screen time she was  basically putting the ACTING CHOPS TO WORK

    The thing that I find troubling when I’m trying to predict Davis is that just like McDormand she just won an Oscar. And yes people like Anthony Hopkins and Helen Hunt have won for performances with arguably less prominence but those were 20 almost 30 years ago and neither had just won Oscars either.

    I’m not counting Viola out but she has a mountain to climb. It honestly feels like a game of switcheroo because when it comes to the win everyone has a mountain to climb although I genuinely think we’ll get a divided field with Kirby probably taking the BAFTA and Viola taking SAG and both of them fighting out for the Globe but as I said no one is a lock for any acting award at the Oscars in this moment in time (just saying it again for those who mocked me the last time I said it) and I have Mulligan as a dark horse (which is fitting considering how PYW is a dark comedy lol).

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203857724

    I think “inaccessible” is an overgeneralized term and thus not appropriately applicable in this context. However, you can’t deny that Pieces of a Woman is going to be tougher sell than some other movies, simply because it’s such a heavy, depressing, tragic topic that it deals with (while we’re living through a year marked by tragedy). Promising Young Woman, on the other hand, looks — notice how I am not saying “is” — too offbrand — we know how much the academy loves genre movies and especially its leading ladies. I think we’d all love to be proven wrong! Lupita being snubbed last year still stings, and will always sting. The TV academy has been much better with recognizing a multitude of genres.

    I’m glad we can agree that the use of the term “inaccessible” is overstated on here.

    Pieces of a Woman will be harder to watch but what is worth mentioning is that it’s being compared to Manchester by the Sea  (in tone) yet I’ve seen people on here dub it as this year’s Hereditary which is quite bizarre. Manchester by the Sea also came out in a depressing year (although admittedly not as depressing as this one) and won Actor so all I’m saying is some of the comparisons people make with other films and Pieces are a bit strange.

    I do agree with you that the TV Academy has been better with its recognition but now that you’ve brought it up it is worth reminding people that we did literally just see Mark Ruffalo win for what has been universally proclaimed to be “the most depressing show on television this year” over actors in cheerier (or less dark) shows with wider viewership. Of course the TV Academy is slightly different to the film Academy but Ruffalo also was the sole nominee of his show and won because of how his performance was universally acclaimed. That to me (whilst I’m not saying it means Kirby will win) shows some potential.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203857740

    Lol the academy only cares about back to back leads hence frances vs viola turning into davis vs kirby BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR SAME ACTOR 2019 2017 so davis stays the front runner with kirby

    This sounds like it was written by Catherine Tate and Matt Lucas and Dan Levy.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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