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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 9)

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    wolfali
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    #1203878486

    Not saying she won’t get in or win but I had no idea who Andra Day was until like two months ago. I mean I had heard of Rise Up because when it was released it was used in a tonne of shows over here (gosh it was so annoying when it essentially became the anthem of BBC evening dramas) but I had no idea who sung it and I highly doubt people who don’t follow music have either.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Bassett
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    #1203878497

    Andra was compared to Diana like two weeks ago, understandably so since they’re playing the same role, both for their debut performances. But Diana was a name, literally the original Beyoncé while Andra is a nobody. The receipts most likely put Ross in 4th position in the Best Actress race that year, but her agressive campaigning and actual clout may have made her runner-up like some argue. Why not, but she still didn’t win

    Lee Daniels directed two performances to an Oscar nom. Kidman and Winfrey died out before the Oscars despite being huge names. So yeah, these performances are juicy but do they always succeed ? No

    You need way more than juicy performances to win Lead Actress, especially for woc. The only one who actually won was already a Globe/SAG/Emmy winner. I guess you could compare Day to Goldberg for The Color Purple in a way but she lost to a legend on her 8th nomination so.. yeah.

    Don’t forget that they chose to give the award to Sandra Bullock for a nothing performance and were ready to give Streep her 3rd for a so so comedy before giving it to Gabby for her fantastic dramatic turn

    That overconfidence in Day is lowkey weird at this point

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis, Frances McDormand
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supporting Actor - Colman Domingo, Glynn Turman
    Best Picture - Nomadland
    Best Director - Chloé Zhao
    SAG Ensemble - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Best Cinematography - Nomadland

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    Jazzy
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    #1203878518

    Not saying she won’t get in or win but I had no idea who Andra Day was until like two months ago. I mean I had heard of Rise Up because when it was released it was used in a tonne of shows over here (gosh it was so annoying when it essentially became the anthem of BBC evening dramas) but I had no idea who sung it and I highly doubt people who don’t follow music have either.

    Seriously! People on here want to claim that Kirby isn’t well-known, but I doubt most of the public has ever even heard of Andra Day. I’m sure a lot of people have heard Andra’s song (especially when played in commercials and whatnot) but I doubt they know who sings it. And even if some people know her name, she’s basically just a one-hit wonder.

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    GD
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    #1203878527

    This is random but I just saw Emma and wow! Anya Taylor Joy is SO good! She’s a Golden Globes nominee for sure and should be in talk for an Oscar nomination seriously!

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    Hoster1
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    #1203878529

    The fact that Kidman was able to get any traction at all for a movie in which she’s pissing on Zac Efron and The Butler got surprisingly into SAG Ensemble, imo shows that his movies can have certain popularity amongst actors.

    The people predicting Day though (as far as I saw), are acknowledging that Daniels as a whole is pretty hit and miss, even if he’s great with actors. At least I always said when predicting her, that I assume the movie will be actually good.

    Billie Holiday will not only be the merely juicy role, it is absolute bait imo. I believe she will be win competitive if the movie is good.

    Also again the fact, that she’s not that famous may be beneficial for her actually.

    Also with that Goldberg example… if that situation took place today I’m willing to bet that Goldberg wouldn’t have lost, but that is besides the point lol.

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    wolfali
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    #1203878553

    With regards to Taylor-Joy whilst I see her as having no chance at the Oscars I wonder are we underestimating her? She’s literally everywhere because of The Queen’s Gambit and that can result in her getting in everywhere apart from the Oscars (although I doubt she wins anything for Emma).

    It’s crazy to think how much of a golden age TV is in right now in terms of buzz. The Crown, The Queen’s Gambit and even The Good Lord Bird and The Undoing have more buzz than most of the Best Picture contenders right now lol.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Bassett
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    #1203878559

    The Goldberg situation would have turned out the exact same today, lmao

    Let’s say unknown black actress gives a dazzling dramatic performance in a double digit nominee movie, faces off Glenn Close on her 8th nomination in a movie that doesn’t hit big, Glenn Close still wins. Let’s be real

    And that’s not besides the point. They rarely reward debut performances in lead but they’ll somehow have that energy for a woc with virtually no influence ? Doubtful

    I mean, there’s a reason why Viola is already campaigning hard for that award

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis, Frances McDormand
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supporting Actor - Colman Domingo, Glynn Turman
    Best Picture - Nomadland
    Best Director - Chloé Zhao
    SAG Ensemble - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Best Cinematography - Nomadland

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    leslieit
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    #1203878563

    <p style=”text-align: left;”>Emma is not The Queen’s Gambit. Anya is getting all the TV awards.</p>

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    Hoster1
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    #1203878570

    The Goldberg situation would have turned out the exact same today, lmao

    Let’s say unknown black actress gives a dazzling dramatic performance in a double digit nominee movie, faces off Glenn Close on her 8th nomination in a movie that doesn’t hit big, Glenn Close still wins. Let’s be real

    And that’s not besides the point. They rarely reward debut performances in lead but they’ll somehow have that energy for a woc with virtually no influence ? Doubtful

    In that hypothetical situation that unknown actress wins the Globe over the veteran, which in today’s awards landscape would’ve meant that she wins almost everything.

    Nobody would care that Glenn Close would’ve been on her 8th nomination.

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    wolfali
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    #1203878577

    Seriously! People on here want to claim that Kirby isn’t well-known, but I doubt most of the public has ever even heard of Andra Day. I’m sure a lot of people have heard Andra’s song (especially when played in commercials and whatnot) but I doubt they know who sings it. And even if some people know her name, she’s basically just a one-hit wonder.

    I mean if you’re moaning about Kirby not being well known enough then you shouldn’t be considering Andra Day at all.

    If we’re going with the idea that you have to be famous or have worked with famous people to be Oscar win or nomination competitive then Kirby has literally worked with a tonne of high profile Hollywood actors and is competing for a film with Ellen Burstyn and Shia LaBeouf. The most famous person in Day’s film is Natasha Lyonne.

    Yes her film has been directed by Lee Daniels but let’s not pretend like he’s some sort of saint who has Best Picture or Drama Series contenders all the time. We’ve already seen what happened with The Paperboy and The Butler but also look at Empire.

    Empire was the biggest show on television and won the TCA award for Program of the Year yet outside of its Academy Award nominated female lead (who should have won at least for its third season because Taraji and Cookie are phenomenal) it got ignored completely above the line. Then for its third season (which was Henson’s most acclaimed season) it got shut out above the line at awards shows because of more acclaimed programmes and programmes from streaming really exploding and taking control at the Emmys like The Crown and The Handmaid’s Tale. Then he had Star which was a complete flop.

    I mean just because you’re a well known director who has had a hit in the past that doesn’t mean your film is guaranteed to be good. Look at Ron Howard this year and Tom Hooper last year.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    SN
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    #1203878579

    Kirby is more known than Andra Day for sure, but Pieces of a Woman doesn’t have great reviews, while Billie Holiday still have the benefit of the doubt. I would call Kirby a lock if her movie was an actual BP contender.

    So I’ll repeat it: the only locks for now are Davis and McDormand.

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    wolfali
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    #1203878587

    Considering how I’ve said how I find it strange that people consider Andra Day someone who is more known than Kirby I thought I’d look at their Instagram accounts just to see if Day was like a massive celebrity in America or something and…

    Andra Day – 260k followers on Instagram
    Vanessa Kirby – 1.3m followers on Instagram

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    leslieit
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    #1203878589

    Kirby is absolutely a lock for nomination.

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    Bassett
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    #1203878592

    In that hypothetical situation that unknown actress wins the Globe over the veteran, which in today’s awards landscape would’ve meant that she wins almost everything. Nobody would care that Glenn Close would’ve been on her 8th nomination.

    Nope, in that scenario unknown black actress doesn’t even win the Globe in the first place. And just like that, Glenn stomps on her

    I already said that but the only reason why Viola is such a strong contender this year (besides the acclaim for Ma Rainey ofc) is because of her status. Predicting her so confidently would be foolish if she wasn’t a triple crown winner

    Andra’s status (or lack thereof) is a massive hurdle she’s very unlikely to overcome

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis, Frances McDormand
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supporting Actor - Colman Domingo, Glynn Turman
    Best Picture - Nomadland
    Best Director - Chloé Zhao
    SAG Ensemble - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Best Cinematography - Nomadland

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    wolfali
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    #1203878603

    For me to predict a complete unknown like Andra Day (who I am not saying has no chance because that would be silly at this stage like it is silly to say that either Kirby or Davis have no chance at winning) the film would need to have raves like Beasts of the Southern Wild did or be a Best Picture contender that gets in and wins Picture at a lot of places like Room and Roma did.

    I don’t remember the last time someone who hardly anyone had ever heard of won or got nominated without those things.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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