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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 9)

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    Miles
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    #1203880081

    Why are people doubting Kirby getting nominated?

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    Leo's burner
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    #1203880083

    can we all just accept that day and all the other contenders are worthy. like this constant back and fourth bickering is tiring. day stans need to relax and wait till we get a trailer or some reviews first (i have her winning atm as well). kirby stans need to take a chill pill and stop taking everything so seriously when someone questions her chances on winning. i’ll admit that i don’t see kirby winning bc her film is too weak in regards to bp chances to put her over that hump, she’ll be lucky for the nomination.

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    wolfali
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    #1203880085

    The consensus was Alison Janney = the mvp of I Tonya

    I’m sorry that may have been your view but that wasn’t the general consensus of everyone who watched that film. Janney didn’t win because people thought she was the MVP lol.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Leo's burner
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    #1203880097

    Why are people doubting Kirby getting nominated?

    i still think she will get nominated, but she is not a “clear frontrunner” like someone mentioned a couple pages back.

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    Leo's burner
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    #1203880113

    And why do you have her winning at the moment, I’m curious to know and I agree with everything you said.

    it’s arguably the batiest role in this category and it’s coming from a potential bp contender (tbd reviews). honestly, i agree with what some people have been saying on the only actress that is win competitive is viola and that will only help day’s chances imo. i also agree with the argument that some people that are trying to make regarding that day is a newbie and we don’t know how her acting skills are, and my answer to that is; there is a reason on why lee daniels casted her. if she was actually genuinely bad then he would’ve never casted her in the first place and paramount wouldn’t have that much confidence in the project. we’re all just waiting on the trailer and some reviews for the film, but i believe if critics and voters take a liking to this film then it’s a done deal.

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    wattsgold
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    Oct 6th, 2018
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    #1203880119

    Andra Day undoubtedly winning (as of November!!!) lol… yeah, I don’t do crack.

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    wolfali
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    #1203880121

    The thing that I don’t understand is why people are saying that the reason Kirby can’t win is because her film hasn’t gotten strong reviews (reviews we’re basing on 11 Metacritic reviews of which only 4 are mixed). I don’t think she’s the “clear frontrunner” as another user suggested. I have said repeatedly how I’m considering Davis and Mulligan and even Day for the win if her performance gets Mulligan/Davis/Kirby/McDormand sequel reviews.

    I mean we use 20 year arguments as to why both Boseman and Davis can win. We say repeatedly how trends and record can be broken on here when it comes to every contender (see people saying Glenn Close can win for a panned film, Davis and Boseman can win without the key editing and/or directing nominations needed for a film to win two acting awards, Day can win for her debut performance).

    But the thing is with Kirby and with Mulligan and even McDormand we’ve seen people overcome the barriers they face this year. Charlize Theron won Best Actress as the lone nominee for a film that had similar reviews to Pieces of a Woman. Joaquin Phoenix who many considered “Oscar poison” won for one of the most divisive and inaccessible films ever nominated at the Oscars and his film wasn’t even acclaimed. Daniel Day-Lewis made Oscar history by winning a third so so0n after his second.

    I see no reason as to why Kirby theoretically can’t do a Theron, Mulligan can’t do a Phoenix or McDormand do a Day-Lewis.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Leo's burner
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    #1203880138

    But the thing is with Kirby and with Mulligan and even McDormand we’ve seen people overcome the barriers they face this year. Charlize Theron won Best Actress as the lone nominee for a film that had similar reviews to Pieces of a Woman.

    i actually hope kirby overcome these obstacles standing in her way, but i just don’t see it. the theron comparison is flawed in my opinion because she gave an absolute transformative performance and seemed unrecognizable which helped.

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    Luca
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    #1203880153

    I see no reason as to why Kirby theoretically can’t do a Theron, Mulligan can’t do a Phoenix or McDormand do a Day-Lewis.

    Because these comparisons don’t make sense. First off, all three of Theron, Phoenix and Day-Lewis gave completely transformative, gigantic performances (for the most part they were all unrecognizable); Theron played real-life serial killer Aileen Wuornos, Day-Lewis played Abraham freakin’ Lincoln and Phoenix played the Joker! None of these roles compare to the three played by Kirby, Mulligan and McDormand, least of all McDormand, who is said to give a more subdued, quieter performance in Nomadland. Then add the fact that, for instance, in the case of Phoenix, he starred in a box office hit and was also considered overdue. Again, none of the three will have either factor going for them (I guess Mulligan could be considered overdue though).

    Bottom line, you can’t just make comparisons based on just one aspect. I understand the point you’re trying to make, and I don’t disagree entirely, but it’s a bit more nuanced than how you’re presenting it, IMO.

    Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!

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    wolfali
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    #1203880177

    i actually hope kirby overcome these obstacles standing in her way, but i just don’t see it. the theron comparison is flawed imo bc she gave an absolute transformative performance and seemed unrecognizable which helped.

    This is true.

    But then again look at the trailer for Pieces of a Woman. I mean I’m not saying Kirby’s performance is transformative but according to the reviews and critics it seems undeniable. Not everyone knows who she is but for the significant amount who do in the industry she is kind of unrecognisable here.

    What I mean to say is look at Amy Adams in Sharp Objects (performance wise). She’s not transformed herself like Michelle Williams in Fosse/Verdon for example but because of her change in mannerisms and accent if you didn’t know it was Amy Adams acting she’d be kind of unrecognisable.

    Amy Adams in Sharp Objects:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8qslcDChqE

    Amy Adams interview:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqOyCJ28DvQ

     

    Now look at Vanessa Kirby winning a BAFTA:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKyzOLdBTNI

    Compare that to her in the trailer for Pieces of a Woman:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zLKbMAZNGI

     

    I’m not saying her performance is undeniable or that will stay with you for a while (as someone who hasn’t seen the film I’m unqualified to say that) but if the reviews for her performance from people in the industry who have seen the film and critics are correct then she might end up having an undeniable performance. A January release date might help her a lot considering how close that it is to the Globes, SAG, BAFTA, Oscar voting.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    SN
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    #1203880183

    I did look up the lady writing the screenplay, and she has only 3 film credits over 20 years that I can see, 2 of which have rotten scores and the 3rd is some Oprah movie that I can find literally no other info on?

    Two words: Pulitzer winner

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    wolfali
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    #1203880202

    https://www.nextbestpicture.com/latest/why-best-actress-is-this-years-most-competitive-oscar-category The article literally says Viola is the frontrunner, Kirby and Mcdormand are not winning and Andra is THE dark horse.

    The same publication that published the article you posted also published this article last week in which they say she has a chance at the win…

    https://www.nextbestpicture.com/latest/the-academys-history-with-the-ingenue-in-best-actress

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    SN
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    #1203880223

    Which is why Amy Adams is winning Best Actress for Hillbilly Elegy, a film directed by Academy Award winning director Ron Howard.

    Oh wait…

    I really don’t get your point here.

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    wolfali
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    #1203880239

    I really don’t get your point here.

    Just because it’s written by a Pulitzer winner it doesn’t automatically mean it’s good or that it will automatically mean the film has a chance of a nomination. Tom Hooper is an Oscar winning director yet his last film just swept the Razzies.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Jazzy
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    Dec 3rd, 2018
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    #1203880247

    Biopics tend to be popular at the Oscars, particularly biopics about singers in the Best Actress category (including just last year’s winner Renée Zellweger as Judy Garland).

    The article literally says Viola is the frontrunner, Kirby and Mcdormand are not winning and Andra is THE dark horse.

    That’s just that person’s opinion. It’s no more relevant than the opinions of the users of this forum. And the fact that somebody won just last year for starring in a singer biopic is actually a big challenge for Day. Two singer biopic roles winning back-to-back? Extremely unlikely. It didn’t work for Taron Egerton. He didn’t even get nominated for an Oscar, despite the fact that he was playing a beloved music icon and the film was a box office smash.

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