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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress

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    Monsoon 🌊
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    #1203759138

    Brad Pitt and Michael Douglas both won their producing and acting awards for different movies. No one’s won both acting and producing Oscars for the same movie.

    That’s exactly what happened with Lady Gaga. Albeit with the song category.

    This 👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1203759180

    Brad Pitt and Michael Douglas both won their producing and acting awards for different movies. No one’s won both acting and producing Oscars for the same movie.

    Hence why I said “regardless when they get it.” No one votes or thinks like what the original poster said except for GD. If a voter loves the film enough to give it BP, then they’ll probably love the Actress enough to give her their vote as well since they loved everything about the film. It’s more of coincidence it’s never happened at the Oscars when it happens all the time for other awards. If Nomadland takes both Screenplay and Directing when it wins BP, then I can see voters being fine with her losing, but it’s unlikely since they love it so much.

    That’s exactly what happened with Lady Gaga. Albeit with the song category.

    Gaga wasn’t winning Best Actress regardless if she won the Globe while Gaga has probably one of the most acclaimed Oscar songs and awarded in history (they wouldn’t have given the Oscar to anyone else). She and Glenn were always losing to Olivia.

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    JGibson
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    #1203759195

    Besides BP being preferential ballot so its a different outcome. Frances supporters will vote for her in actress if they really want to regardless of producing credits

    Chromatica and Fetch the Bolt Cutters AOTYs yeah

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    Monsoon 🌊
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    #1203759214

    If Nomadland is the perceived frontrunner to win BP, sweeps the precursors, and Frances is on screen accepting as a producer at every awards show, best believe voters will want to spread the wealth.

    Especially when McDormand has recently won in Lead Actress and will already be a head in the biggest category of the night. It’s not inconceivable to believe at all.

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1203759237

    If Nomadland is the perceived frontrunner to win BP, sweeps the precursors, and Frances is on screen accepting as a producer at every awards show, best believe voters will want to spread the wealth. Especially when McDormand has recently won in Lead Actress and will already be a head in the biggest category of the night. It’s not inconceivable to believe at all.

    And then you wake up. They clearly love Frances and if you think if they love her more in the category than anyone else and won’t reward her because of a producing win, then I don’t know what to tell you. If she loses, it’s not because of a producing credit.

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    JGibson
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    #1203759239

    Frances can lose for many reasons. Being a producer is not one of them.

    Chromatica and Fetch the Bolt Cutters AOTYs yeah

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    wolfali
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    #1203759272

    Would be hilarious if we ended up having a repeat of the 2018 Actress race and Frances wins again and Davis ends up being this year’s Ronan (someone who’s co-star has a better chance of winning than themself) and Kirby ends up being this year’s Robbie (an ingenue in their first lead role in a prestige film with a veteran co-star with a showy performance).

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Monsoon 🌊
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    #1203759274

    No performer has won acting and producing for the same film. It doesn’t matter how loved or respected they are. It’s facts.

    Either Frances will win for BP or Lead Actress. Not both. Academy members are well aware of her two previous performance wins. They’ll want to spread the wealth and reward another actor in that category.

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    wolfali
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    #1203759276

    No performer has won acting and producing for the same film. It doesn’t matter how loved or respected they are. It’s facts.

    To be fair though it’s not as if every performer produces the same film they’re starring in  lol. I mean in fact this shouldn’t be held against Frances considering how female led BP films produced by the female lead of the film hardly have gotten nominated for Best Picture anyway.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Disgraced Eve Polastri Stan
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    #1203759286

    No performer has won acting and producing for the same film. It doesn’t matter how loved or respected they are. It’s facts. Either Frances will win for BP or Lead Actress. Not both. Academy members are well aware of her two previous performance wins. They’ll want to spread the wealth and reward another actor in that category.

    And how many times has someone genuinely been a frontrunner for both producing and acting? People act like these awards bodies must hold hard and fast to statistics, but in reality each race is completely dynamic and different from the last. There is really no evidence to suggest that they wouldn’t give Frances both because it’s so rare that a film is in a strong position to win both. It’s not like they actively sit down and think “we can’t vote for Frances twice because we never have before.”

    Remember when people counted on Frances to lose SAG because no one had ever won twice in a lead category before and she won anyway? It’s a game of campaign money, not rational thought and statistics. You overestimate the amount of agency that these bodies have.

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    Monsoon 🌊
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    #1203759304

    And how many times has someone genuinely been a frontrunner for both producing and acting?

    At this early point in 2018, ASIB was actively predicted to win BP & Actor for Bradley Cooper. Obviously neither happened.

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    Disgraced Eve Polastri Stan
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    #1203759316

    At this early point in 2018, ASIB was actively predicted to win BP & Actor for Bradley Cooper. Obviously neither happened.

    Yeah, because it was clear that other films/actors had more exposure and passion from awards bodies after the Globes. I asked when a film was in a strong position to win both, and ASIB just wasn’t. Those GG losses had more to do with Bohemian Rhapsody’s massive campaign by 20th Century Fox than them actively caring about a statistic.

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    wolfali
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    #1203759336

    I have a feeling none of the Netflix actresses (Adams, Davis, Kirby, Loren) are winning. If Nomadland ends up being released in cinemas (which I think it will) it may have the narrative of being the “saviour” of cinema by being the only viable contender in a lot of the key races not to be a Netflix or Amazon film.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Carlos J. Barfly
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    #1203759350

    No performer has won acting and producing for the same film. It doesn’t matter how loved or respected they are. It’s facts. Either Frances will win for BP or Lead Actress. Not both. Academy members are well aware of her two previous performance wins. They’ll want to spread the wealth and reward another actor in that category.

    Just because some comparative statistic can be identified doesn’t mean that that statistic represents something actually at work in the minds of voters, especially when the stat only serves to describe a negative; that is, something that hasn’t happened. You could do it all day long. “Since the consolidation of the Cinematography award, no black and white film has ever won for Best Original Song.” “No actor has ever won on their second lead nomination and their fifth unless they also were nominated for a supporting in between.” These are made-up statistics, obviously, to make a point, but voters don’t think along these lines.

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    Bassett
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    #1203759362

    I have a feeling none of the Netflix actresses (Adams, Davis, Kirby, Loren) are winning. If Nomadland ends up being released in cinemas (which I think it will) it may have the narrative of being the “saviour” of cinema by being the only viable contender in a lot of the key races not to be a Netflix or Amazon film.

    That would be relevant for Best Picture, but not the acting races imo

    Plus that “saviour of cinema” narrative is overstated. Tenet was supposed to be the big blockbuster that would revive theaters and it flopped

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supp Actor - Daniel Kaluuya, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II

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