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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Adapted and Original Screenplay (Part 2)

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    Luca
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    #1204195331

    At least adapted will be down to two excellent scripts!

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    alittle03
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    #1204195333

    I’m personally still predicting Nomadland for Adapted Screenplay, as it has the Globe, the BFCA, and I feel it would have won the WGA had it been eligible. I think The Father winning Adapted at the BAFTAs really has more to do with it competing at its home turf and being a British film. That isn’t me dismissing the power of the British bloc at the Oscars (hell, even some Americans will vote for The Father here), as The Father could very well still win this. It makes sense that if The Father loses every other award, the easiest and most probable award to win is Adapted. But I still hold that Zhao has more in her favor here to end up taking the award for Adapted come Oscar night. However, I feel it’s not as locked as initially believed and I think The Father is a very very close second.

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    Couverture
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    #1204195421

    People bring up the The Favourite prevailing over Green Book as an example but I don’t think it’s exactly applicable in this race. The Favourite was way stronger with the BAFTAs than the Oscars (7 wins vs just one), while it was the opposite case for Green Book (Best Picture Oscar winner). This isn’t necessarily the case with our two screenplay contenders where their support from both of these award bodies is more or less on the same level (not comparing with each other) or the disparity in support is similar for both. For example, if The Father could be considered significantly stronger with Baftas because it is a British film then Nomadland with its additional Sound nom and Lead Actress win could be too.

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    SN
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    #1204195446

    Fran Walsh won three for Return of the King (Picture, Screenplay and Song).

    I didn’t remember that, but Zhao will be the first filmmaker.

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    SN
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    #1204195457

    People bring up the The Favourite prevailing over Green Book as an example but I don’t think it’s exactly applicable in this race. The Favourite was way stronger with the BAFTAs than the Oscars (7 wins vs just one), while it was the opposite case for Green Book (Best Picture Oscar winner). This isn’t necessarily the case with our two screenplay contenders where their support from both of these award bodies is more or less on the same level (not comparing with each other) or the disparity in support is similar for both. For example, if The Father could be considered significantly stronger with Baftas because it is a British film then Nomadland with its additional Sound nom and Lead Actress win could be too.

    Nomadland/The Father case is more comparable to 12 Years a Slave/Philomena than The Favourite/Green Book imo.

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    Butz
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    #1204195469

    Nomadland and The Father would both be very worthy winners with such different approaches. I’m flip-flopping every day between these two for my second favorite screenplay of the year. Whoever wins, it will be well deserved.

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    #1204195487
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    mafro987
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    #1204195507

    I do think there’s possibly an element on the forum of wanting The Father to win something and collectively giving it more of a chance than it actually has. I definitely don’t see the Philomena comparison though. That was a Weinstein push lacking the natural passion that The Father has generated, and it didn’t have a reason for missing the guilds (unlike The Father which didn’t send screeners). I don’t think the 12YAS comparison fits either. McQueen was always losing Director in that race, while Nomadland is covered by Picture/Director/Cinematography. It needed the Screenplay win in a way that Nomadland doesn’t.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    Couverture
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    #1204195584

    To expand on that Philomena point, BAFTA was way off in screenplay in those years for some reason. From 2011-2014, only 1/8 BAFTA screenplay winner repeated at the Oscars. They literally gave David O Russell consecutive writing wins during that time💀.

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    SN
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    #1204195635

    I do think there’s possibly an element on the forum of wanting The Father to win something and collectively giving it more of a chance than it actually has. I definitely don’t see the Philomena comparison though. That was a Weinstein push lacking the natural passion that The Father has generated, and it didn’t have a reason for missing the guilds (unlike The Father which didn’t send screeners). I don’t think the 12YAS comparison fits either. McQueen was always losing Director in that race, while Nomadland is covered by Picture/Director/Cinematography. It needed the Screenplay win in a way that Nomadland doesn’t.

    Philomena came late to the race just like The Father. It stayed 3 months in limited theaters and only got a wide release after the Oscar nominations. And whilst W***st*** pushed it, I don’t think he was the only reason it was successful. If the Brits hadn’t genuinely liked it, it would’ve had the same fate The Imitation Game had one year later and wouldn’t have won anything.

    Of course the comparison between The Father and Philomena isn’t perfect and I feel The Father has more passion, but the similarities aren’t easy to ignore for me.

    Even if Nomadland doesn’t need Screenplay as much as 12 Years a Slave needed, the Picture/Director/Cinematography combo doesn’t seem likely for a BP winner these days. A combo like this never happened since Rocky and that film lost because Stallone was never going to win over Network.

    If Frances was going to win Best Actress, then I could argue Nomadland could easily go home without Screenplay.

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    SN
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    #1204195849

    Another thing to consider about BAFTA, and that’s something I foolishly overlooked, is that a filmmaker NEVER sweeps Picture, Director and Screenplay there. I was looking at BAFTA history, and I couldn’t find a person who won all that in the same ceremony. Even recent films that won these categories like The Artist and Slumdog Millionaire weren’t produced by its directors. That was something huge to overcome for Zhao. On the other hand, Peter Jackson, the Coens, AGI and Bong Joon-ho all won the trifecta at the Oscars.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204198224

    I’m seriously considering switching to The Father in Adapted, but I’m really not sure if I should. The parallels to the 12 Years a Slave vs Philomena are driving me nuts. Anyone wanna help me out?

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    #1204201630
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204201667

    I am sticking with my predictions that the two female Directors nominated in that category will win the screenplay awards: Chloe Zhao for Nomadland and Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman. I would prefer for The Father to win and for Sound of Metal to win but the latter is definitely not happening – it’s Chicago 7 that could win instead of PYW but The Father has a strong chance and I would be thrilled to be wrong in my prediction.

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    Sir Shaw
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    #1204201740

    They literally gave David O Russell consecutive writing wins during that time💀.

    Tragic

    Dear Emmys Voters

    Television has never been better and it’s a pandemic year.

    Be bold, not boring.

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