April 15, 2021 at 5:17 am #1204201743
Christopher Rosen briefly raised a really good point on a recent video chat with Joyce Eng which I’d like to expand upon…
I just watched it and I got the sense that he was underestimating The Father (despite saying he was predicting it for Screenplay). He suggested that Riz Ahmed was ahead of Hopkins in the best actor race for example (which is obviously wrong).
For Your Consideration:
Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)April 16, 2021 at 5:36 am #1204203484
This is Chloe Zhao’s to lose. It’s very are for a first time filmmaker to win any screenplay category on their first film. Just ask Spike Lee, James Ivory, Aaorn Sorkin who had to wait decades before they won an Oscar in screenwriting, I’m well aware Zeller has had experience with writing before for stage plays, but this is his first film. There is another writer for the film but Zeller getting the Oscar too is a potential roadblock. Zeller losing at the DGA First Feature director is telling that there is not enough support for The Father in wins that will result in the film going home empty handed. The film is too stagey which also might explain his loss and play adaptations also rarely win this category. The Father has a much stronger shot in Actor in my opinion because nothing will stop the Chloe Zhao sweep on April 25.
As an alumna of the same college as Chloe Zhao (Mount Holyoke) I’m proud to see her success. (She graduated two years behind me. Interesting note-she majored in political science.) I think she’s going to win all four of her possible awards-Director, Screenplay, Picture, and Editing.April 16, 2021 at 5:50 am #1204203499
Graduated with a Pol Sci major then to become an Oscar winning director is marvelous. Does she plan on going back to your school to give a talk? That would be very cool.
I would go for that. We’re the same age. I’d love to know if she took the poly sci class I did. Mount Holyoke is a very special school. It tends to turn out women who want to lead and change things. And I’m hoping she’ll give the school a shout out. It’s a wonderful place.
I’d bet she’ll be a commencement speaker maybe next year.April 25, 2021 at 1:39 am #1204220446
Was thinking girl power would be the headline here, but it’ll be Emerald and the guys from The Father.April 25, 2021 at 2:11 am #1204220472
The Father makes so much sense here, but I’m going to stick with predicting Nomadland to win the same 4 Oscars as Birdman. Neither will be surprising.April 25, 2021 at 3:19 am #1204220527
While I think The Father is the better screenplay I am sticking with Nomadland for Adapted Screenplay. I will be happy either way. I would be shocked if any of the other 3 nominees were to win.
I am also predicting the other female Best Director nominee will win for Original Screenplay with Promising Young Woman. I think The Trial of the Chicago 7 has a strong chance but I think Emerald Fennell’s Best Director nomination will help her to win the category. Personally I prefer the scripts to Minari and Sound of Metal but all 4 scripts are wonderful!April 25, 2021 at 8:00 am #1204221003
I’m really crossing my fingers that the Father wins the Adapted Screenplay. I found its narrative more effective rather than Nomadland’s.
As for the original screenplay, I’m kind of torn between The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman.April 25, 2021 at 8:17 am #1204221038
Florian Zeller isn’t the only one in the ballot for Adapted Screenplay for The Father. Christopher Hampton is credited too and the Academy is familiar with him (won for Dangerous Liaisons, nominated for Atonement) and he’s a respected playwright and a Tony winner.April 25, 2021 at 10:28 am #1204221426
Going with The Father and Promising Young Woman. The former is a risky prediction and I can see it be The Grand Budapest Hotel to Nomadland‘s Birdman. I would be shocked to see the latter lose though.
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")
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