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ITOET and First Cow both don’t feel like things the Academy will like.
I’m Thinking of Ending Things is what I have. It’s quite surrealist and inaccessible but not only does it have the visibility but it also is written by a three time Academy Award nominee and one time winner.
The Personal History of David Copperfield imo is a threat too. One should never underestimate Ianucci.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
END OF WEEK 18 PREDICTIONS
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
Mank
Promising Young Woman
SoulNomadland
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Father
News of the WorldThose are mine currently as well. Although I’m a little sketchy on News if the World.
After Billie Holiday is out, the fifth slot in Adapted seems wide open. I’m not buying News of the World at all, and ITOET and First Cow both don’t feel like things the Academy will like.
I’m predicting First Cow in the 5th slot in Adapted Screenplay. If First Reformed got a Screenplay nom, I can see First Cow happening.
I think News of the World is gonna be this year’s FvF, so I don’t think it’s happening in any above the line category besides BP.
I’m Thinking of Ending Things is just too weird for the Academy and it wasn’t acclaimed like First Cow. Netflix also has just too many films in contention.
Screenplay of Promising Young Woman is insane, should be the frontrunner!
January Screenplay Predictions
Best Original Screenplay
- Judas and the Black Messiah
- Promising Young Woman
- Soul
- Minari
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Nomadland
- One Night in Miami
- Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- The Father
- Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
John's Best of 2020
Best Picture: Soul
Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
Best Original Screenplay: Soul
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight SkyPromising Young Woman is clearly the best written film and will generate a gargantuan amount of buzz and engagement (op-eds, think pieces, fashion inspo …) and tap into young and then older audiences alike. It will be polarizing. I loved it. Nomadland had a stunning screenplay especially bringing in non-actors and being so naturalistic at times, also by being wildly political without being political at all.
Chicago 7 was full of lies and still managed to be boring and sanctimonious. I couldn’t follow Soul’s script. Ma Rainey was a preachy, also sanctimonious, and really, nothing more than a play (and the person responsible for dousing Davis in waxy and distracting cleavage sweat in every bloody scene should be blacklisted).
Original is killing me. Mank/Judas/Promising/Soul/Trial feels like such a rock solid lineup, but I still really feel like both Minari and Malcolm & Marie have a place somewhere.
Malcolm and Marie doesn’t seem likely to make it into this category when early reactions have already criticized the dialogue. The full reviews will be much harsher. Plus it just seems more like an acting and crafts film that the screenplay branch will pass up.
I do think Minari will make it in, and right now I think Mank is getting kicked out. As much as I loved it, I have to acknowledge that Mank is underperforming, and it feels much more vulnerable above-the-line than it once did. There will probably be at least one high-profile category that Mank misses, and while some are predicting Actor, this one feels much more likely to me.
I guess the answer is probably Borat, but the hype for that seems to be so focused on Bakalova. The answer is probably Borat and I’m overthinking it, but I still think something like The White Tiger could swoop in as a wild card.
You are overthinking it. It’ll be Borat.
John's Best of 2020
Best Picture: Soul
Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
Best Original Screenplay: Soul
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight SkyEND OF WEEK 19 PREDICTIONS
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Promising Young Woman
Minari
Mank
SoulNomadland
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Father
News of the WorldTrial of the Chicago 7 is going to be another “A Few Good Men” in terms of nominations/wins. Sorkin has been snubbed several times in his career at the Oscars; he will be again for this mechanical and discombobulated screenplay with dubious messaging. And of course, for his completely pedestrian directing.
Soul doesn’t quite have the acclaim of other Animated films that got screenplay nominations, and the lack of theatrical this year seriously hurts it, because there isn’t the box office hype, and voters generally watch animated films with their kids (I’ve also been hearing kids aren’t into this Pixar entry as much; adults get a less enthusiastic viewing experience).
Minari is too small and not especially plot/dialogue driven, and didn’t get a big enough boost from critics awards, which are already less beneficial than ever this year, because of how early they announced (without seeing all the movies in contention!) and will be forgotten about. Cynically, I also see Asian-centric films doing poorly with the Academy. Parasite is an outlier because it was more about modern capitalism as a whole, while being an outstandingly genius and accessible thriller.
ORIGINAL:
1. Judas and the Black Messiah (possibly the most socially deemed “important message” movie of the season, so a win can be expected if it takes hold)
2. Promising Young Woman (also a powerful social message, uniquely delivered, but perhaps more polarizing)
3. Mank (doesn’t matter if the film isn’t as great as hoped for, it’s technically very well made in a way that demands respect and exudes prestige, and this subject matter is catnip for a bunch of the voters; the big dinner scene seals the nomination)
4. Another Round (a life affirming and thought-provoking surprise that continues to build support and will win 2 Golden Globes right before Oscar voting starts; if it was English language with a top distributor/campaign we’d be looking at a possible Best Picture winner, and I will pray it can still somehow go all the way)
5. Da 5 Bloods (the writing might be more criticized, but there’s still passionate support. It’s a brilliant screenplay and FAR more insightful about history and people and the Vietnam era than Trial of the Shitago 7)ADAPTED:
1. The Father (much more concept driven than Nomadland, and arguably more emotional, with a particular appeal to old people, aka the majority of Oscar voters)
2. Nomadland (criticized by detractors for not enough plot and if she is already winning Director, will they feel the need to give her this too?)
3. One Night in Miami (a locked filler nominee)
4. I’m Thinking of Ending Things
5. First CowMa Rainey’s Black Bottom has disappointed with general audiences and the writing doesn’t have a great deal of social importance or highbrow appeal, nor is the screenwriter someone of significant prestige. The category being weaker is perfect for a film like I’m Thinking of Ending Things to get in; it’s specifically very writerly and appeals to a sect of people who are absolutely putting it #1 on their ballot, and Charlie Kaufman is due for another nomination.
The last slot is a question mark, but First Cow has lots of critics support and Kelly Reichardt is due for some recognition. I’m worried Nomadland has overshadowed First Cow this season in terms of getting the kind of critics boost that matters, but hopefully there are still enough voters who vibe with it. The competition in this category is not insurmountable.
ORIGINAL: 1. Judas and the Black Messiah (possibly the most socially deemed “important message” movie of the season, so a win can be expected if it takes hold) 2. Promising Young Woman (also a powerful social message, uniquely delivered, but perhaps more polarizing) 3. Mank (doesn’t matter if the film isn’t as great as hoped for, it’s technically very well made in a way that demands respect and exudes prestige, and this subject matter is catnip for a bunch of the voters; the big dinner scene seals the nomination) 4. Another Round (a life affirming and thought-provoking surprise that continues to build support and will win 2 Golden Globes right before Oscar voting starts; if it was English language with a top distributor/campaign we’d be looking at a possible Best Picture winner, and I will pray it can still somehow go all the way) 5. Da 5 Bloods (the writing might be more criticized, but there’s still passionate support. It’s a brilliant screenplay and FAR more insightful about history and people and the Vietnam era than Trial of the Shitago 7) ADAPTED: 1. The Father (much more concept driven than Nomadland, and arguably more emotional, with a particular appeal to old people, aka the majority of Oscar voters) 2. Nomadland (criticized by detractors for not enough plot and if she is already winning Director, will they feel the need to give her this too?) 3. One Night in Miami (a locked filler nominee) 4. I’m Thinking of Ending Things 5. First Cow
Out of interest what do you think will win BP if neither Chicago 7 or Nomadland win Screenplay?
I sort of like your reasoning for Chicago 7. It’s basically why I just about don’t think it will win, although I think it’s the safest bet for a nomination.
Trial of the Chicago 7 is going to be another “A Few Good Men” in terms of nominations/wins. Sorkin has been snubbed several times in his career at the Oscars; he will be again for this mechanical and discombobulated screenplay with dubious messaging. And of course, for his completely pedestrian directing.
Soul doesn’t quite have the acclaim of other Animated films that got screenplay nominations, and the lack of theatrical this year seriously hurts it, because there isn’t the box office hype, and voters generally watch animated films with their kids (I’ve also been hearing kids aren’t into this Pixar entry as much; adults get a less enthusiastic viewing experience).
Minari is too small and not especially plot/dialogue driven, and didn’t get a big enough boost from critics awards, which are already less beneficial than ever this year, because of how early they announced (without seeing all the movies in contention!) and will be forgotten about. Cynically, I also see Asian-centric films doing poorly with the Academy. Parasite is an outlier because it was more about modern capitalism as a whole, while being an outstandingly genius and accessible thriller.
ORIGINAL:
1. Judas and the Black Messiah (possibly the most socially deemed “important message” movie of the season, so a win can be expected if it takes hold)
2. Promising Young Woman (also a powerful social message, uniquely delivered, but perhaps more polarizing)
3. Mank (doesn’t matter if the film isn’t as great as hoped for, it’s technically very well made in a way that demands respect and exudes prestige, and this subject matter is catnip for a bunch of the voters; the big dinner scene seals the nomination)
4. Another Round (a life affirming and thought-provoking surprise that continues to build support and will win 2 Golden Globes right before Oscar voting starts; if it was English language with a top distributor/campaign we’d be looking at a possible Best Picture winner, and I will pray it can still somehow go all the way)
5. Da 5 Bloods (the writing might be more criticized, but there’s still passionate support. It’s a brilliant screenplay and FAR more insightful about history and people and the Vietnam era than Trial of the Shitago 7)ADAPTED:
1. The Father (much more concept driven than Nomadland, and arguably more emotional, with a particular appeal to old people, aka the majority of Oscar voters)
2. Nomadland (criticized by detractors for not enough plot and if she is already winning Director, will they feel the need to give her this too?)
3. One Night in Miami (a locked filler nominee)
4. I’m Thinking of Ending Things
5. First CowMa Rainey’s Black Bottom has disappointed with general audiences and the writing doesn’t have a great deal of social importance or highbrow appeal, nor is the screenwriter someone of significant prestige. The category being weaker is perfect for a film like I’m Thinking of Ending Things to get in; it’s specifically very writerly and appeals to a sect of people who are absolutely putting it #1 on their ballot, and Charlie Kaufman is due for another nomination.
The last slot is a question mark, but First Cow has lots of critics support and Kelly Reichardt is due for some recognition. I’m worried Nomadland has overshadowed First Cow this season in terms of getting the kind of critics boost that matters, but hopefully there are still enough voters who vibe with with it. The competition in this category is not insurmountable.
Chicago 7 is not losing a screenplay nomination. It’s probably in 2nd for Best Picture right now. I hope I’m wrong.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom has disappointed with general audiences and the writing doesn’t have a great deal of social importance or highbrow appeal
Erm…
nor is the screenwriter someone of significant prestige.
No but the playwright is, and sometimes that’s enough.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom has disappointed with general audiences and the writing doesn’t have a great deal of social importance or highbrow appeal, nor is the screenwriter someone of significant prestige
Ma Rainey still has decent audience scores though, with a 7.1 on IMDb and a 78% on RT. Unlike ITOET, which has a 47% on RT and 6.6 on IMDb. And the other two points you made are flat-out incorrect: Ma Rainey has a ton of social significance right now, and we all know the real screenwriter of Ma Rainey was celebrated playright and posthumous Academy Award-nominee August Wilson.
John's Best of 2020
Best Picture: Soul
Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
Best Original Screenplay: Soul
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Skymeh rainey flopped with audiences, as it should. a terrible film with a terrible screenplay and terrible performances.
FYC:
Picture: Nomadland
Director: Chloe Zhao
Leading Actress: Frances McDormand
Leading Actor: Anthony Hopkins
Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-jung
Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
Adapted Screenplay: The Father
Original Screenplay: Promising Young WomanAdapted
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
2. Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton, The Father
3. Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
4. Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami
5. Charlie Kauffman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things6. Jonathan Raymond and Kelly Reichardt, First Cow
7. Writing Team, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
8. Luke Davies and Paul Greengrass, News of the World
9. Eleanor Catton, Emma
10. Simon Blackwell and Armando Ianucci, The Personal History of David CopperfieldOriginal
1. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
2. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
4. Jack Fincher, Mank
5. Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee, Danny Bilson, Paul de Meo, Da 5 Bloods6. Will Berson and Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
7. Eliza Hittman, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
8. Abraham and Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
9. Sam Levinson, Malcolm and Marie
10. Andy Siara, Palm SpringsFYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
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