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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Adapted and Original Screenplay

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    Zuranthium
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    #1204046505

    Going to laugh when WGA goes 2/5 in both categories this year. They’ve missed 50% of the nominees in a single year before, but not 60% yet.

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    John Berchmans
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    Anyway, this discussion is probably useless because I think it’s very likely that SoM will be considered Adapted.

    How is that possible? Is it one of those “based on a true story?” situations?

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    John Berchmans
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    #1204046774

    And how do you know Judas (which has been performing worse than Sound of Metal so far) wasn’t the film that got in because Mank and Minari were ineligible? You’re really doing the whole “Judas is strong and everything else is weak thing” in at this point.

    It’s funny how everytime one of your favorite films doesn’t do well it’s because of “low visibility” (like The Father or The Mauritanian) but when the film that actually had visibility issues still gets multiple nominations at precursors where voters barely had the opportunity to see it, it’s “underperforming”.

    Judas is very obviously going to be a late breaker. It still got in for Kaluuya and Song across the board, as well as 6 BAFTA longlist nominations, despite low visibility. It’s already made WGA and it’ll make PGA as well. We’ve seen these types of films do well before: Judas is simply too acclaimed, hyped, and socially relevant to not continue to do well from this point forward.

    If I’m wrong about Judas then I’ll gladly eat crow in front of everyone, but I’m extremely confident that it’ll get Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay nominations and win Best Supporting Actor for Daniel Kaluuya.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    wolfali
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    #1204046784

    It’s funny how everytime one of your favorite films doesn’t do well it’s because of “low visibility”

    Please not the argument where you imply me being a supposed “Judas hater” again. I literally just posted on the supporting actor thread about how I’ve seen it and am campaigning for Kaluuya to sweep and think the Sacha Baron Cohen is the definition of white mediocrity. This film is probably top 2 in my Best Picture lineup lol.

    or The Mauritanian)

    The Mauritanian is my favourite film? I didn’t realise you could like a film without having seen it?

    one of your favorite films doesn’t do well it’s because of “low visibility” (like The Father

    Getting in at AACTA and the Golden Globes for Best Picture and long-listed for 8 BAFTAs and nominated for 4 Critics Choice awards in spite of having an end of February release date is “not doing well”?

    I’d be interested to see what your thoughts are on Judas missing the Golden Globes and AACTA awards and having 3 Critics Choice awards.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    estrelas
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    #1204046794

    This confidence in Judas and the Black Messiah exploding is interesting. I really don’t understand the confidence. It’s really good but it’s not the second coming. I was slightly underwhelmed by it tbh. Daniel delivered one of the best performances of the year without a question and should be sweeping.
    Also, if Kaluuya and Song got in at both GG and CC then they obviously watched it. Maybe it missed Picture, writing and ensemble (SAG) because these voters didn’t care? You should also equate that possibility.

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    Couverture
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    #1204046813

    But Judas could’ve perfectly been snubbed due to its late release like The Post, but it still got in.

    The Post was snubbed at WGA because the actual industry was largely apathetic towards it, not because of its late release date.

    but when the film that actually had visibility issues still gets multiple nominations at precursors where voters barely had the opportunity to see it, it’s “underperforming”.

    I do think Judas will be a late breaker like you but I disagree with the notion that it has visibility issues with the industry when, correct me if I’m wrong, WB has made it readily available for voters for quite a while now and has held multiple screenings for it as well. Other awards like CC or Satellites are another thing though.

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    wolfali
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    #1204046815

    I do agree with John Berchmans that it could be a late breaker but the problem is that even for a late breaker it has been under-performing quite a bit. The fact it got shut out at AACTA in spite of being long-listed is quite shocking. Especially when The Father (another late breaker) did so well or when so many other late breakers like Vice and <i>Phantom Thread </i>have done well there.

    I do think it can rebound now it has been released and has a lot of buzz upon its release but it’s a bit pretentious to pretend that these snubs aren’t worrisome or act like it’s WGA nomination is some undeniable show of strength that makes it a lock in Original Screenplay when we don’t know so much about the race other than that it’s a two horse one between Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7 and that <i>Minari</i> and Mank are likely for nominations (I consider Minari to be a lock in Original Screenplay).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    SN
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    #1204046845

    How is that possible? Is it one of those “based on a true story?” situations?

    It was based in an unreleased film.

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    SN
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    #1204046863

    If Judas continues to get nominations from the guilds, specially PGA, there’s no reason to keep underestimating it. The guilds are more important than the BAFTA or AACTA shortlists. It missed the BAFTA Best Film shortlist, and so did Minari. It’s not the end of the world to be ignored from these shortlists.

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    wolfali
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    #1204046872

    If Judas continues to get nominations from the guilds, specially PGA, there’s no reason to keep underestimating it. The guilds are more important than the BAFTA or AACTA shortlists. It missed the BAFTA Best Film shortlist, and so did Minari. It’s not the end of the world to be ignored from these shortlists.

    Yes of course and I’m not ruling that out but it seems a bit strange that it’s been under-performing even with groups that are kinder to late breakers like The FatherPhantom Thread and Vice.

    I think we’ll just have to see how well it does over the following weeks to see if it can get in. It’s a shame there aren’t going to be 10 BP nominees this year.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    SN
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    #1204046890

    Yes of course and I’m not ruling that out but it seems a bit strange that it’s been under-performing even with groups that are kinder to late breakers like The Father, Phantom Thread and Vice.

    They were not kind with American Sniper. If Judas gets PGA, it’s definitely happening.

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    wolfali
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    #1204046893

    If Judas gets PGA, it’s definitely happening.

    Agreed.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Couverture
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    #1204046911

    I do agree with John Berchmans that it could be a late breaker but the problem is that even for a late breaker it has been under-performing quite a bit. The fact it got shut out at AACTA in spite of being long-listed is quite shocking. Especially when The Father (another late breaker) did so well or when so many other late breakers like Vice and <i>Phantom Thread </i>have done well there.

    I’d say Judas has done better than Phantom Thread so far no? Yeah, PT might’ve had an AACTA nom for DDL but Judas has SAG+WGA, which are far more relevant precursors. Vice wasn’t exactly an awards late breaker here (not talking about the release date) so I won’t group it with these two.

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1204046913

    Even if Judas doesn’t get a PGA nomination, will it still be Best Picture nominated?

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    Lucas
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    Even if Judas doesn’t get a PGA nomination, will it still be Best Picture nominated?

    Good question…

    FYC

    Best Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

    Best Actress: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

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