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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Adapted and Original Screenplay

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    Cordelia
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    #1203772162

    One Night in Miami wins Best Adapted Screenplay.

    I’ve been saying this, FINALLY someone else gets it. This on premise alone is a massive contender to win. Screenplay categories, even adapted, love a big premise, and a screenplay that is timely both to its time period and to present day is something the Academy will look for. Yes, it’s “stagey”, but so is The Father, and this is much more vibrant and creative.

     

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203772257

    It would be a dream come true to see Pixar win a screenplay oscar, but sadly, I really only see it going to either Sorkin or Fincher.

    Yeah, I agree. I think it will be Chicago 7 unless Mank somehow sweeps everything or Judas and the Black Messiah blows up.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    Brayfers
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    #1203772320

    My full Line-Up is

    Original:

    1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
    2. Soul
    3. Mank
    4. Judas and the Black Messiah
    5. Minari

    Adapted:

    1. The Father
    2. One Night In Miami
    3. Nomadland
    4. News of the World
    5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Letterboxd: Brayfers

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    M: The Original
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    #1203772349

    It shouldn’t be a long shot but The Forty Year Old Version deserves original screenplay recognition. It deserves more than that but I won’t press my luck because I know how award bodies evaluate movies like it.

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    DaKardii
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    #1203776875

    END OF WEEK 5 PREDICTIONS

    Best Original Screenplay

    1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
    2. Mank
    3. Soul
    4. The French Dispatch
    5. Da 5 Bloods

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    1. Nomadland
    2. One Night in Miami
    3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    4. The Father
    5. Hillbilly Elegy
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    germanportuguese
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    #1203779136

    Original-

    Trial/7
    Mank
    Da 5 Bloods
    Judas/Messiah
    Soul
    close-
    NeverRarelySometimesAlways
    Palm Springs
    Minari

    Dream Nom
    Corpis Christi

    Adapted

    One/Miami
    Nomadland
    I’m Thinking of Ending Things
    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    The Father
    Close-
    News of the World
    Borat 2
    First Cow
    Dream Nom-
    Boys in the Band
    Babyteeth

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    Cordelia
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    #1203779210

    Hillbilly Elegy’s script in the trailer seemed terrible (that Terminator line bleugh), but if 1917 showed us anything, it’s prominent multi-category films can get a bonus nomination in screenplay. I think it’s getting a nomination in Adapted.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    DaKardii
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    #1203792896

    END OF WEEK 6 PREDICTIONS

    Best Original Screenplay

    1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
    2. Mank
    3. Da 5 Bloods
    4. Soul
    5. Never Rarely Sometimes Always

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    1. Nomadland
    2. One Night in Miami
    3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    4. The Father
    5. Hillbilly Elegy
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    John Berchmans
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    #1203799534

    For those who have seen Borat 2, does anyone think it could be nominated in Adapted? The first one was nominated and Borat 2 has been getting really good reviews.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    Hayden
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    #1203799549

    After watching it, I’ve dropped On The Rocks from getting a screenplay nom. Thought it was the worst part about it.

    I’m keeping Murray on the board (in 5th), but other than that I don’t think the film will land anything.

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    DaKardii
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    #1203806826

    END OF WEEK 7 PREDICTIONS

    Best Original Screenplay

    1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
    2. Mank
    3. Soul
    4. On the Rocks
    5. Da 5 Bloods

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    1. Nomadland
    2. One Night in Miami
    3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    4. The Father
    5. Hillbilly Elegy
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    John Berchmans
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    #1203807449

    https://deadline.com/2020/10/amazon-borat-tens-millions-viewers-opening-weekend-1234604703/

    Looks like Borat 2’s going to snatch that 5th nomination in Adapted.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    Dan Backslide
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    #1203807526

    For those who have seen Borat 2, does anyone think it could be nominated in Adapted? The first one was nominated and Borat 2 has been getting really good reviews.

    It’s possible, but Adapted is definitely the more crowded field, with several apparently major contenders there. If the field were more similar to Original, I’d definitely have it in my predictions.

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    Hayden
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    #1203807548

    Borat 2’s screenplay being categorized as ‘adapted’ is a little bizarre, but I suppose those are the rules. At this point I’d say it has okay chances to land a nomination though. I’d place it around 7th-8th in my predictions. Currently I have—

    1. Nomadland
    2. I’m Thinking of Ending Things
    3. One Night In Miami
    4. The Father
    5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    With Copperfield, News of The World and Borat 2 floating somewhere beneath.

    As for original screenplay, right now I think it’s Mank vs Soul, with Sorkin in a close third. The other two rounding out the category are a bit of a toss-up, but I could see them being Minari and Never Rarely Sometimes Always.

     

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    gorman
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    #1203807616

    Original

    1. Mank
    2. Soul
    3. The Trial of the Chicago 7
    4. Minari
    5. Judas & The Black Messiah

    Adapted

    1. Nomadland
    2. One Night in Miami
    3. The Father
    4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    5. News of the World

    Maintaining the Mank v Nomadland race I have in my head here for the time being.

    Mank has a nice narrative for winning Original, both with it being written by Fincher’s father and being about the process of writing a movie that won the same award. I think Soul could surprise here though, for sure, and I have it as a sleeper in the Picture race too – a win here would be vital for that. Chicago 7 is obviously a writer’s film and it has what you’d expect from Sorkin, but I’m not sure it stands up against his best work and I think it will suffer for that (and with buzz petering out over time). My faith in Minari’s chances grows by the day and this is a good category for it to make a case in. Judas & The Black Messiah is obviously sight-unseen but again, I think it’ll be a reasonably big player and I don’t fancy the chances of the competition we’ve seen thus far (D5B, OTR, NRSA – although the latter would in an ideal world have a big chance).

    Adapted is similarly tight for a winner. Nomadland is my choice right now because I have it winning picture in my predictions and Screenplay looks like the likeliest award for it to prop that win up (Director and Actress are close, though). Regardless of thoughts about Miami, general consensus is that it’s a player here and I could see it winning for sure. The Father seems like it will place too, same goes for Ma Rainey. 5th spot I’m not exactly sure – Borat 2 seems unlikely even though it’s a buzzy film right now, I have low hopes for Hillbilly Elegy outside of Supp. Actress, and ITOET feels too left-field to feature at the Oscars (although I wouldn’t rule out a sort of Buster Scruggs-y type surprise from Netflix and it’s extremely well written.) News of the World just feels likelier/ safer.

     

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