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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Adapted and Original Screenplay

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    wolfali
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    #1204055734

    What? The Shape of Water lost to Get Out. James Ivory was in Adapted lol

    LMAO I thought The Shape of Water was adapted.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    SN
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    #1204055736

    Look at something like Up in the Air, that won a ton of screenplay awards before losing.

    Up in the Air was killed in the last minute due to a screenwriting credit controversy. It would absolutely had won otherwise.

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    wolfali
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    #1204055738

    People beating thier chest over critic wins. How many critic wins did Green Book, Argo, and Birdman have?

    Green Book – 4
    Argo – 12
    Birdman – 14

    One Night in Miami is not winning Adapted.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    JackO
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    #1204055740

    Green Book – 4
    Argo – 12
    Birdman – 14

    One Night in Miami is not winning Adapted.

    cHicAgO 7 hAs nO BuZz

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    SN
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    #1204055742

    LMAO I thought The Shape of Water was adapted.

    Can’t blame you. It was a cheap remake of Pan’s Labyrinth and plagiarized from pre existent material, so it kinda was adapted lol

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    Philip
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    #1204055754

    People beating thier chest over critic wins. How many critic wins did Green Book, Argo, and Birdman have?

    My a quick glance on IMDB and don’t take my count for gospel, it was quick.

    Birdman – 9 wins
    Argo – 11 Wins
    Green Book – 5 Wins

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    JackO
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    #1204055759

    My a quick glance on IMDB and don’t take my count for gospel, it was quick.

    Birdman – 9 wins
    Argo – 11 Wins
    Green Book – 5 Wins

    So you dont need to lead in critics wins to win best screenplay. thanks.

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    Philip
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    #1204055761

    So you dont need to lead in critics wins to win best screenplay. thanks.

    I never said you did.

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    wolfali
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    #1204057073

    After seeing Sound of Metal I don’t know why there is scepticism about its style of writing potentially not being one the writers branch will go for. Of course it can still miss but I see no reason to think that it should be ruled out of making writing even though it got into WGA because it’s writing isn’t baity (a point which I vehemently disagree with). Yes it’s more naturalistic and slow paced than other contenders but I don’t see how that hurts it.

    Then again it could go to Adapted (which I would say would help its chances).

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Rmcd8
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    #1204057120

    I am wading into this thread topic for the first time to strongly predict PYW will take the major original screenplay awards. BAFTA won’t pass up an opportunity to award Fennell (a British and longtime BBC stalwart as well as strong wider competitive nominee), and the Oscars recently has tended to spread the love and diversity where possible in screenplay noms and wins (Peele, Waititi, Gerwig and others).

    I am probably influenced by the fact that I was wholly underwhelmed by Chicago 7, but while screenplay is the best thing going for it, I just don’t think it’s a lock at all.

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    Heptapod
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    #1204057210

    We could see some shockers go down, but Nomadland and Promising Young Woman continue to be the frontrunners in my opinion.

    The Father, Ma Rainey, and ONIM don’t have much actively working against them, but all of them lack a real passion, either for their scripts or for the films overall. The fifth nominee will just be lucky to be there. Nomadland’s a frontrunner for Picture, so this should be a fairly easy win for Zhao.

    The story with Jack and David Fincher is a great one, and if it were most other films it’d seem like the obvious answer, but people really just don’t seem to be excited about Mank, least of all the writers. Even though Trial is probably winning the Globe, the Academy is less enamored with Sorkin than the HFPA, and while the Green Book type wins do happen, the Oscars tend to lean a little edgier. Minari is the biggest threat. It all really comes down to how much the Academy likes the movie, but unfortunately I just see this one walking away empty-handed. Promising Young Woman is of-the-moment, takes more risks, and is much more memorable than Trial (in both good ways and bad). This is more of a three-horse race, but Fennell still feels pretty far ahead, at least to me.

    I really think this is the year of the female filmmaker. When even the sexist HFPA recognizes it, you know it’s true. The Academy is going to love patting themselves on the back to be able to say that the people accepting Picture, Director, and both Screenplay categories were all women.

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    Philip
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    #1204057229

    We could see some shockers go down, but Nomadland and Promising Young Woman continue to be the frontrunners in my opinion.

    The Father, Ma Rainey, and ONIM don’t have much actively working against them, but all of them lack a real passion, either for their scripts or for the films overall. The fifth nominee will just be lucky to be there. Nomadland’s a frontrunner for Picture, so this should be a fairly easy win for Zhao.

    The story with Jack and David Fincher is a great one, and if it were most other films it’d seem like the obvious answer, but people really just don’t seem to be excited about Mank, least of all the writers. Even though Trial is probably winning the Globe, the Academy is less enamored with Sorkin than the HFPA, and while the Green Book type wins do happen, the Oscars tend to lean a little edgier. Minari is the biggest threat. It all really comes down to how much the Academy likes the movie, but unfortunately I just see this one walking away empty-handed. Promising Young Woman is of-the-moment, takes more risks, and is much more memorable than Trial (in both good ways and bad). This is more of a three-horse race, but Fennell still feels pretty far ahead, at least to me.

    I really think this is the year of the female filmmaker. When even the sexist HFPA recognizes it, you know it’s true. The Academy is going to love patting themselves on the back to be able to say that the people accepting Picture, Director, and both Screenplay categories were all women.

    HFPA sexist, lol. When they actually gave their director award to a woman some 30 years before the Academy.

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    wolfali
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    #1204057234

    It’s quite possible that Fennell wins the Globe à la Hildur in Score last year. Not saying it will happen but it’s possible.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    DaKardii
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    #1204060136

    I’m changing my predictions based on which precursors nominations have or haven’t happened.

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Locks

    • Mank
    • Promising Young Woman
    • Sound of Metal
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Fighting for the last spot

    • Judas and the Black Messiah
    • Minari
    • Never Rarely Sometimes Always
    • Palm Springs

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Locks

    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • News of the World
    • One Night in Miami

    Fighting for the last 2 spots

    • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
    • The Father
    • Nomadland
    • The White Tiger
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    Philip
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    #1204060144

    I’m changing my predictions based on which precursors nominations have or haven’t happened.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Locks

    • Mank
    • Promising Young Woman
    • Sound of Metal
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Fighting for the last spot

    • Judas and the Black Messiah
    • Minari
    • Never Rarely Sometimes Always
    • Palm Springs

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Locks

    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • News of the World
    • One Night in Miami

    Fighting for the last 2 spots

    • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
    • The Father
    • Nomadland
    • The White Tiger

    Why is Nomadland fighting for a spot?

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