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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director (Part 3)

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1203904702

    I believe Nomadland is the movie to beat for Best Picture at the moment, but I still think David Fincher will win Director for Mank. It’s capital D Direction. It would be analogous to Ang Lee winning for Life of Pi. I know the parallel isn’t 100%, but keep in mind Life of Pi has an 87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 79 on Metacritic (the same as Mank), and was the likely runner up for Best Picture behind Argo.

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1203904706

    For those comparing Mank to The Irishman, Martin Scorsese already had an Oscar and the movie couldn’t escape the inevitable “been-there-done-that” syndrome.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203904775

    I’ll give a full review for Mank tomorrow, but I’m very confident now that the film will not win Best Picture or Best Director. Not because of it’s quality: it’s excellent, easily the best film I’ve seen this year. I already know it will be Top 3 on my and many critic’s year-end lists. No, it will lose because it’s not just cynical but downright caustic towards Hollywood and the people in it: aka, the people who vote for the Oscars. They’ll feel like Fincher personally insulted them himself. Now I understand why he could never get this film off the ground until Netflix gave him the chance: no major movie studio would ever support a film that openly mocks them the way Mank does. I’m sure the guilds will feel the same way. That being said, considering who the HFPA, Critic’s Choice, and BAFTA’s are, I’m sure they’ll eat this film up like candy.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1203904837

    I’ll give a full review for Mank tomorrow, but I’m very confident now that the film will not win Best Picture or Best Director. Not because of it’s quality: it’s excellent, easily the best film I’ve seen this year. I already know it will be Top 3 on my and many critic’s year-end lists. No, it will lose because it’s not just cynical but downright caustic towards Hollywood and the people in it: aka, the people who vote for the Oscars. They’ll feel like Fincher personally insulted them himself. Now I understand why he could never get this film off the ground until Netflix gave him the chance: no major movie studio would ever support a film that openly mocks them the way Mank does. I’m sure the guilds will feel the same way. That being said, considering who the HFPA, Critic’s Choice, and BAFTA’s are, I’m sure they’ll eat this film up like candy.

    You bring up a good point. You’re probably right.

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    wolfali
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    #1203905048

    Never Rarely Sometimes Always could surprise with a Picture nomination. You heard it from me first.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Butz
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    #1203905061

    Never Rarely Sometimes Always could surprise with a Picture nomination. You heard it from me first.

    If I have learned anything in my short time here then it is to never underestimate your predictions. However I just can’t imagine that happening. I think 5th-spot-nominations for Flanagan and the screenplay would be the ceiling. I can’t see it sneaking ahead of Judas, Minari, Promising Young Woman AND Soul at the same time which it would need to to get in (assuming we don’t get 10 Picture slots).

    FYC - Oscars 2022:
    NINE DAYS in all categories, including:
    - Best Picture
    - Best Director
    - Best Original Screenplay
    - Best Actor (Winston Duke)
    - Best Supporting Actress (Zazie Beetz)
    - Best Supporting Actor (Benedict Wong)

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    wolfali
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    #1203905079

    If I have learned anything in my short time here then it is to never underestimate your predictions. However I just can’t imagine that happening. I think 5th-spot-nominations for Flanagan and the screenplay would be the ceiling. I can’t see it sneaking ahead of Judas, Minari, Promising Young Woman AND Soul at the same time which it would need to to get in (assuming we don’t get 10 Picture slots).

    Well I am not predicting Never Rarely Sometimes Always but it’s very clear that it’s an Oscar buzz film from it’s nomination. Every year BIFA nominate two Oscar buzz films (one of whom is the frontrunner that wins so expect it to go to Nomadland) in International Feature. Considering how Les Miserables is ineligible and Babyteeth is going nowhere (I say this as someone who loved the film) my bet is that second film is Never Rarely Sometimes Always.

    I don’t see it getting in at the moment but it wouldn’t surprise me. It will be Focus’ main push in Drama (assuming the HFPA don’t move Promising Young Woman for some weird reason) which can help it and what these BIFA noms have proven is that name recognition doesn’t matter this year. Just like with the television awards voters have had more time to watch things and that’s been reflected in those nominations. We usually have a film from the first half of the year nominated in Picture and some of us have talked about Da 5 Bloods or Emma. being that film but I think it can be Never Rarely Sometimes Always.

    It is getting a key nomination though. That is for certain. I think the Actress category is too competitive for it (although that 5th slot is wide open) but it’s in good shape for a Screenplay nomination.

    Also speaking of Judas and Minari, I agree with you that Never Rarely Sometimes Always probably won’t be ahead of Promising Young Woman or Soul but I can see it easily ahead of Judas and Minari. I’m losing confidence in A24’s ability to manage a campaign and I think Saint Maud‘s performance at BIFA is going to cause another Uncut Gems/The Farewell situation and Judas could very easily get boycotted because of HBO Max (although I think that will affect in the win but not nomination but who knows). There is a path for it to get into only screenplay and Picture.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    NevadaR
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    #1203905081

    I’ll give a full review for Mank tomorrow, but I’m very confident now that the film will not win Best Picture or Best Director. Not because of it’s quality: it’s excellent, easily the best film I’ve seen this year. I already know it will be Top 3 on my and many critic’s year-end lists. No, it will lose because it’s not just cynical but downright caustic towards Hollywood and the people in it: aka, the people who vote for the Oscars. They’ll feel like Fincher personally insulted them himself. Now I understand why he could never get this film off the ground until Netflix gave him the chance: no major movie studio would ever support a film that openly mocks them the way Mank does. I’m sure the guilds will feel the same way. That being said, considering who the HFPA, Critic’s Choice, and BAFTA’s are, I’m sure they’ll eat this film up like candy.

    Not really. It’s failing big with critics from LAFCA and NYFCC. Nomadland, PYW and even Chicago 7 are making way more lists than Mank. It barely got one or two mentions.

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    wolfali
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    #1203905389

    I love Promising Young Woman but I don’t know why some experts have a lot of optimism about it. I think it’s getting into Picture but in no way is it going to come as close as second. I mean I guess if it ends up being a big financial success it could but I doubt that gets it to win Best Picture…

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Dan Backslide
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    #1203905437

    I love Promising Young Woman but I don’t know why some experts have a lot of optimism about it. I think it’s getting into Picture but in no way is it going to come as close as second. I mean I guess if it ends up being a big financial success it could but I doubt that gets it to win Best Picture…

    I’ve gone back and forth on Promising Young Woman a bit. I feel like it has the potential to be a major contender or get shutout.

    The sad thing is, a film like this would’ve been enormous if released around the start of the #METOO movement. But hey, better late than never. And it’s good to know films about this topic are still continuing to be made.

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    wolfali
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    #1203905455

    I’ve gone back and forth on Promising Young Woman a bit. I feel like it has the potential to be a major contender or get shutout. The sad thing is, a film like this would’ve been enormous if released around the start of the #METOO movement. But hey, better late than never. And it’s good to know films about this topic are still continuing to be made.

    I think from the focus that Focus (pun not intended) is giving it that Mulligan can get in and be win competitive but the thing for me is that there is a moment in the film which will be incredibly divisive. Some will find it genius and some will be horrified (it isn’t a spoiler for me to say this either way). Mulligan is pretty much universally considered to be at the very least nomination worthy so unless there is a massive backlash for the film I don’t see it affecting her chances at all (or even Fennell’s script for that matter because I think writers will rally around it) but on a ranked ballot I don’t see it winning. Nomination? Yes. Win? Idk.

    It’s not as divisive as Joker so I can see Promising Young Woman have a similar trajectory (it will be one of the most popular non Netflix films) to it but I don’t see it winning Picture. Unless it somehow becomes a massive financial success (which wouldn’t be that surprising considering how well Focus’ films have been doing at the box office despite the pandemic and how they’re rolling the film out internationally right up until the Oscars ceremony).

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203905460

    Not really. It’s failing big with critics from LAFCA and NYFCC. Nomadland, PYW and even Chicago 7 are making way more lists than Mank. It barely got one or two mentions.

    I mean, it’s still early at the year. Just looking at the review scores and seeing how many 5/5’s it has (this defiinetely seemes to be a love-it-or-hate-it film for critics) I’m sure it will still make quite a few.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    wolfali
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    #1203905466

    What do people think about Emerald Fennell’s chances? It feels like such a catch-22 situation.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203905472

    What do people think about Emerald Fennell’s chances? It feels like such a catch-22 situation.

    In Director? Not very likely. But I think she has a strong chance at getting a Best Original Screenplay nom.

    I’ve been thinking a little bit about PGA and CC nominations this morning and and I think Promising Young Woman will make both of those lineups. It feels like the kind of passionately loved indie film that manages to slip in there even while missing the other awards shows.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    wolfali
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    #1203905484

    In Director? Not very likely. But I think she has a strong chance at getting a Best Original Screenplay nom. I’ve been thinking a little bit about PGA and CC nominations this morning and and I think Promising Young Woman will make both of those lineups. It feels like the kind of passionately loved indie film that manages to slip in there even while missing the other awards shows.

    If it gets into PGA and CC then all it needs to do is get into BAFTA for it to get into Picture.

    It’s a lock for a nomination at the Globes in Picture.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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