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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director (Part 3)

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    fyras19
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    #1203885616

    I’ve had him in for a while. Ma Rainey could very well be the most nominated film this year especially if Mank under-performs.

    Mank will dominate the technical categories and will have 5 nominations above the line. I don’t see any other film getting more nominations.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203886553

    Mank will dominate the technical categories and will have 5 nominations above the line. I don’t see any other film getting more nominations.

    Theoretically Black Bottom could surpass Mank‘s nomination total if the former gets a supporting actor nod over the latter (unlikely, perhaps, but you never know), while both films hit Directing and the same run of craft categories, which is quite possible.

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    fyras19
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    #1203886763

    Theoretically Black Bottom could surpass Mank‘s nomination total if the former gets a supporting actor nod over the latter (unlikely, perhaps, but you never know), while both films hit Directing and the same run of craft categories, which is quite possible.

    The thing is, at least on paper, Mank is way likelier to get into cinematography, editing, score, sound and director. It could happen, ofc, but it’s a long shot.

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    Cordelia
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    #1203887779

    The thing is, at least on paper, Mank is way likelier to get into cinematography, editing, score, sound and director. It could happen, ofc, but it’s a long shot.

    I think the technical categories are likely for Mank. It is a very deliberate and noticeable style. In fact, this reminds me most of The Revenant – a film that will alienate some but a degree of craftsmanship that will translate to a handsome nominations morning.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1203887845

    I think the technical categories are likely for Mank. It is a very deliberate and noticeable style. In fact, this reminds me most of The Revenant – a film that will alienate some but a degree of craftsmanship that will translate to a handsome nominations morning.

    I think Mank is less likely to be divisive than The Revenant. I think it’s problem is more that it could be more like 1917: a technically revolutionary piece of art that the voters have no real passion for. Although Mank does have an advantage over 1917 in that voters may respond more to a story about the making of Citizen Kane than a war film that they may have dismissed as inferior to other war films of past.

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    SN
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    #1203887863

    Confirmed that Judas and the Black Messiah is probably going to HBO Max:

    https://variety.com/2020/film/news/coronavirus-movie-theaters-release-dates-1234842520/

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    fyras19
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    #1203887892

    I think Mank is less likely to be divisive than The Revenant. I think it’s problem is more that it could be more like 1917: a technically revolutionary piece of art that the voters have no real passion for. Although Mank does have an advantage over 1917 in that voters may respond more to a story about the making of Citizen Kane than a war film that they may have dismissed as inferior to other war films of past.

    1917 was a standard war film (not commenting on its quality, just on the structure) and it wants to connect to the audience emotionally in a traditional way, with that song at the end and the scene with the french woman. Mank, as far as I heard, is politically charged and is more cerebral, and it demands from the audience to connect deeply to the character of Mank to have any kind of emotional resonance. That could go either way, but in that regard I don’t think it’s very close to The revenant or to 1917.

    But I get the comparison in terms of Oscar prospects, a film that will dominate the categories and will be a big player in director, but will probably struggle to get the passion to win picture especially with the preferential ballot.

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    marty
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    #1203887903

    Confirmed that Judas and the Black Messiah is probably going to HBO Max: https://variety.com/2020/film/news/coronavirus-movie-theaters-release-dates-1234842520/

    Confirmed that its probably happening? Lol strange choice of words.

    But anyway, this doesn’t impede its eligibility right?

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    diego
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    Confirmed that its probably happening? Lol strange choice of words. But anyway, this doesn’t impede its eligibility right?

    It originally had a theatrical release planned so it’s safe.

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    Brae
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    I have Judas actually winning best picture currently but I have to be completely honest and say that I’ve based that on almost nothing more than a gut feeling. I mean it’s topical, both leads (whoever is lead) might end up being acting nominees, it looks showy where it needs to be. Something about Nomadland seems too easy to me and historically front runners on this site don’t seem to actually win when it comes to picture.

    That said this next couple of months is going to be interesting as we start to actually see the films in the conversation and can begin to debate the actual merits. There’s too many questions still to be asked about if certain films are even good or not (including Judas)

    FYC:

    BEST ACTRESS — CAREY MULLIGAN
    BEST ACTOR — RIZ AHMED

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    wolfali
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    #1203887964

    I have Judas actually winning best picture currently but I have to be completely honest and say that I’ve based that on almost nothing more than a gut feeling. I mean it’s topical, both leads (whoever is lead) might end up being acting nominees, it looks showy where it needs to be. Something about Nomadland seems too easy to me and historically front runners on this site don’t seem to actually win when it comes to picture. That said this next couple of months is going to be interesting as we start to actually see the films in the conversation and can begin to debate the actual merits. There’s too many questions still to be asked about if certain films are even good or not (including Judas)

    The thing with Judas that I’m sceptical about is I wonder how well it could do on a ranked ballot. It feels more like something that does well with a plurality vote.

    On a separate note, I think things like The Father, Chicago 7 and One Night in Miami are sleepers.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    David
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    #1203887968

    I have Judas actually winning best picture currently but I have to be completely honest and say that I’ve based that on almost nothing more than a gut feeling. I mean it’s topical, both leads (whoever is lead) might end up being acting nominees, it looks showy where it needs to be. Something about Nomadland seems too easy to me and historically front runners on this site don’t seem to actually win when it comes to picture.

    Exactly!

    On a separate note, I think things like The Father, Chicago 7 and One Night in Miami are sleepers.

    Those are not sleepers… Also, The Father and One Night are not winning.

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    Brae
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    #1203887970

    The thing with Judas that I’m sceptical about is I wonder how well it could do on a ranked ballot. It feels more like something that does well with a plurality vote. On a separate note, I think things like The Father, Chicago 7 and One Night in Miami are sleepers.

    You know what’s funny is that I actually think Judas benefits from a ranked ballot. I feel like if it can get even into a comfortable 3rd so long as it can find a way to broadly appeal to voters (admittedly that’s a hard task given the material) then I could see it slipping above Nomadland and Mank which feel more divisive just in tone to me. Picture feels like one of the more exciting races to me this year because I can see a few outcomes which is nice.

    I definitely agree on your assessment on the sleepers, though I feel like Chicago 7 is out. Judas feels like the more exciting alternative to it. I’ve also been thinking on it a lot and I think Minari is going to be much more competitive than people are thinking right now but I could be very wrong about that.

    FYC:

    BEST ACTRESS — CAREY MULLIGAN
    BEST ACTOR — RIZ AHMED

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    SN
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    #1203888034

    Confirmed that its probably happening? Lol strange choice of words.

    But anyway, this doesn’t impede its eligibility right?

    I meant it’s confirmed that WB is considering a streaming release.

    Yes, it’ll still be eligible. I brought this news because some people here were skeptical it’s coming this season.

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    wolfali
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    #1203888060

    I definitely agree on your assessment on the sleepers, though I feel like Chicago 7 is out. Judas feels like the more exciting alternative to it. I’ve also been thinking on it a lot and I think Minari is going to be much more competitive than people are thinking right now but I could be very wrong about that.

    I see what you mean with Judas.

    And yes with The Father and One Night in Miami. I don’t know why people are ruling them out. I don’t see ONIM getting into directing but it could very well be a top 5 Picture contender and it (if I’m not mistaken) is less dark than some of the other films in contention this year which could help it on the ranked ballot. And of course it’s timely.

    The Father is the big sleeper imo. The fact it’s quite dark might affect it but I think at this point Zeller is in the directors race and considering the raves for its editing, performances and script it could be a contender for some of the wins. I’m not really considering Hopkins for the win right now because I think Boseman is taking it but it could very well win Adapted Screenplay and Colman could win if they don’t take to Mank (after all Fincher films don’t tend to do well with acting wins). She does have one of the most acclaimed performances in the category and buzz from both The Father and The Crown (funnily enough I think her pre-buzz for the third season of The Crown and this desire by people to know who she is helped her a bit when it came to her Oscar win which in turn helped Fleabag a bit because it had more eyes on it due to her participation).

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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