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I do think The Prom could still win Picture there, considering their basic taste. However, Meryl is not beating Carey Mulligan. The latter has far more acclaim and Meryl is getting overshadowed by her co-star in several reviews.
This decade they only went for movies that have a shot at getting into BP. They know Murphy’s campy musical has no chance. Even On the Rocks is better situated.
News of the World looks incredible! I’m getting a Dances With Wolves vibe from it. The forum seems to be sleeping on this movie. It might come from behind and become the favorite to win. I have no doubt that if all theaters were open, it would be a major box office hit.
This decade they only went for movies that have a shot at getting into BP. They know Murphy’s campy musical has no chance. Even On the Rocks is better situated.
But there isn’t an obvious choice this time around. Promising Young Woman does seem like the most BP contender but it’s not THAT strong when compared to previous winners. The Prom could easily benefit.
News of the World looks incredible! I’m getting a Dances With Wolves vibe from it. The forum seems to be sleeping on this movie. It might come from behind and become the favorite to win. I have no doubt that if all theaters were open, it would a major box office hit.
It’s recieved mainly “yeah it’s pretty good” notices so far. I’m holding off on predicting it for now, because I’m not sure people are going to “care” enough about it.
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All these BP predictions that aren’t Nomadland and Mank are way too hopeful. All of the pundits and prognosticators have already agreed, the race has boiled down to a two-way between Nomadland and Mank. Nothing else stands a chance.
Also, I’m starting to agree with Cordelia that Chicago 7 is losing steam. It came out a long time before voting season, didn’t receive strong enough reviews, and the recent political climate isn’t favoring it like I though it would. I’d still like it to win Editing at least, but I’m starting to think Mank wins that one and Judas wins Original Screenplay.
John's Best of 2020
Best Picture: Soul
Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
Best Original Screenplay: Soul
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight SkyIn fact I think Judas could very well be that one BP nominee that a lot of voters are passionate enough about to give a single win in Screenplay (like Midnight in Paris, The Decendants, Her, The Imitation Game, The Big Short, Get Out, Call Me By Your Name, BlackkKlansman, and Jojo Rabbit). The fact that it’s coming out much closer to voting season (presumably) and is likely to receive more acclaim will help it’s chances over Chicago 7 and Mank.
John's Best of 2020
Best Picture: Soul
Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
Best Original Screenplay: Soul
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight SkyI agree that Chicago 7 is losing steam. Why is nobody realising that?
All these BP predictions that aren’t Nomadland and Mank are way too hopeful. All of the pundits and prognosticators have already agreed, the race has boiled down to a two-way between Nomadland and Mank. Nothing else stands a chance.
Not you saying this when the Oscars are 5 months away LOL.
My profile on Letterboxd https://letterboxd.com/Icecreamb
Not you saying this when the Oscars are 5 months away LOL.
But all the major contenders have already been seen except Judas so that doesn’t really matter.
John's Best of 2020
Best Picture: Soul
Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
Best Original Screenplay: Soul
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight SkyBut all the major contenders have already been seen except Judas so that doesn’t really matter.
And? As history has shown, the race shifts and changes pretty much to the very night of the Awards. “Being seen” has nothing to do with it. Buzz, campaigns, all that grows over months.
One thing that is for sure is that it’s never good to be a frontrunner this early out. Mank and Nomadland look to be in a strong position now, but the entire landscape could change by April.
My profile on Letterboxd https://letterboxd.com/Icecreamb
And? As history has shown, the race shifts and changes pretty much to the very night of the Awards. “Being seen” has nothing to do with it. Buzz, campaigns, all that grows over months. One thing that is for sure is that it’s never good to be a frontrunner this early out. Mank and Nomadland look to be in a strong position now, but the entire landscape could change by April.
Well it just doesn’t seem likely to me that Mank or Nomadland will be supplanted as the Top 2, since Mank screams “film that the precursors love that wins all the other major awards but loses Best Picture” and Nomadland is exactly the type of film they love to give Best Picture to in an upset. Since the critic awards will all side with Nomadland and the precursors will all side with Mank, I doubt any other film will even have the opportunity to gain traction in the Best Picture race.
John's Best of 2020
Best Picture: Soul
Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
Best Original Screenplay: Soul
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight SkyAll these BP predictions that aren’t Nomadland and Mank are way too hopeful. All of the pundits and prognosticators have already agreed, the race has boiled down to a two-way between Nomadland and Mank. Nothing else stands a chance. Also, I’m starting to agree with Cordelia that Chicago 7 is losing steam. It came out a long time before voting season, didn’t receive strong enough reviews, and the recent political climate isn’t favoring it like I though it would. I’d still like it to win Editing at least, but I’m starting to think Mank wins that one and Judas wins Original Screenplay.
It’s seems like that atm, but before the globes last year, The Irishman was at least a top 3 with OUATiH and Parasite while 1917 didn’t become a real contender until the globes, then ofc it became the one to beat after the PGA win. Ofc it’s different with Chicago 7, but my point is we shouldn’t declare in a definite manner which films are competitive for the win until we see big critics awards and especially the industry awards. On the other hand I feel safe saying best director is going either to Fincher or to Zhao, I’ll be very surprised to see anyone else winning.
Not you saying this when the Oscars are 5 months away LOL.
It’s way too easy to fall into this mindset when we’re still months away from the actual ceremony.
The Trial of the Chicago 7 looks like it will be this year’s A Star is Born…
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
I agree that Chicago 7 is losing steam. Why is nobody realising that?
lol losing steam? to what? to who? It was never winning any awards outside of maybe screenplay. But it is netflix competing with itself in that category. So it’s wouldnt be shocking if it went the other way. Did people think it was going to win or something?
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