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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 10)

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    Kafka_Gyllenhaal
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    #1204096924

    And of course King has the curse of the “theatrical movie direction” surrounding her, whereas Fennell has gotten immense praise for her original screenplay. That juxtaposition will definitely be a factor here.

    FYC: Minari for Everything

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    marty
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    #1204096970

    So I only just got around to watching ONIM and damn Kingsley Ben Adir delivers a knockout performance. I’ve been one of the few Oldman defenders, but he has no place getting in over Ben Adir or even Lakeith, who was great in Judas.

    Anyway, ONIM is safe in BP imo. And Judas is also safe now, it hit PGA, WGA, and will likely get DGA first feature. Kaluuya sweeping will also help. The movie’s already making waves, there’s apparently a bill in Congress to remove Hoover’s name from the FBI building that was prompted by the events portrayed here.

    I also have gained shocking amount of faith in Regina possibly making it, as someone who has not predicted her so far a la Bradley Cooper. I think she’s on equal footing with Emerald for me in terms of actual directorial ability, ahead even. I liked ONIM more as a movie, and think it has a stronger screenplay. But PYW is more buzzy. Director lineup as I think it stands:

    1. Chloe Zhao

    2. David Fincher

    3. Aaron Sorkin

    4. Emerald Fennell

    5. Lee Isaac Chung/Regina King

    6. Shaka King/Florian Zeller

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    George Ehret
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    #1204096972

    I’m not denying that at all. That trend has only become more prevalent over the years. But I would think that in an awards season as diverse as this, with such strong nominees of color in the acting categories alone, and with such controversies as the HFPA, etc., the Academy would actually try for once to nominate a Black woman for director? I mean, if they don’t in the end, I’ll be very far from surprised. But I have a hope…

    They had pressure to nominate a female director last year and they didn’t. I’d put Fennell ahead of King because Fennell’s film has more style and is kind of an auteur piece. King’s film isn’t either of those, so I wouldn’t place any bets on King making it

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    George Ehret
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    #1204097075

    Oscars nom voting will end only two days after BAFTAs noms. I really doubt The Father will gain enough momentum to get in even if it shows up at BAFTAs. The Father is 8 on IMDb. I feel so bad about its poor award path and losing to films like Mank, Ma Rainey, and ONIM. It deserves better.

    It’s coming to my local AMC, so I’m gonna try to go see it this weekend. I’ll support it all I can

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    Couverture
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    #1204097111

    BAFTA doesn’t need to reveal their noms weeks before Oscar voting to have an impact. It influences the race simply by the virtue of its significant pool of shared voters. And Oscar voting always closes a few days after BAFTA reveals their nominations anyway.

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    federico rubachin
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    #1204097242

    mm THR DGA prediction: Zhao, Fincher, Sorkin, Chung and Fennell (Alt: Greengrass)

    variety DGA prediction: Zhao, Sorkin, Fincher,Greengrass and Fennell (Alt: Chung)

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    George Ehret
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    #1204097254

    News of the World missing PGA tells me Greengrass ain’t happening at DGA

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    marty
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    Yeah Greengrass is not happening. AMPAS snubbed him for Capt Fantastic too, and that got in Barkhad + 5 other noms. NotW seems to be slowing down, it’ll only be a tech player I think. SoM is ahead in the BP race, in line for the 9th slot. Unless The Father flops tomorrow.

    Y’know, this is actually an interesting race. People keep saying that it’s a flop year, but if the lineup is

    Nomadland-Chicago-Minari-Mank-PYW-Ma Rainey-ONIM-Judas+SoM

    I will have enjoyed every single one of these movies, which I couldn’t say for the last 3 years.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    George Ehret
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    #1204097286

    Y’know, this is actually an interesting race. People keep saying that it’s a flop year, but if the lineup is Nomadland-Chicago-Minari-Mank-PYW-Ma Rainey-ONIM-Judas+SoM

    This is where I’m at but in a slightly different order. Director 5 is Zhao/Fincher/Fennell/Chung
    /Vinterberg

    Trying to think of who could be the cool pick that slides in because I really don’t see both Sorkin and King making it in with this branch, yet I think they can both get snubbed

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    federico rubachin
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    #1204097342

    I made a mistake, Variety’s prediction is the same as THR’s but with Fincher and Sorkin in a different order. In both Greengrass it is alternative. I imagine the reason is because they are not going to put more than one First-Time Feature Film Director in the main category.

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    Marcus.H
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    #1204097348

    Judas and the Black Messiah is the first all-black producing team to be nominated for PGA best motion picture.

    https://twitter.com/JATBMFilm/status/1369012623832797184?s=19

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    Eddy Q
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    #1204097624

    Yeah Greengrass is not happening. AMPAS snubbed him for Capt Fantastic too

    You mean Captain Phillips? Lol

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    Eddy Q
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    #1204097644

    DGA predix:

    Judas and the Black Messiah – Shaka King
    Mank – David Fincher
    Nomadland – Chloé Zhao
    Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell
    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Aaron Sorkin

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    SN
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    #1204097738

    DGA:

    Lee Isaac Chung
    Emerald Fennell
    David Fincher
    Aaron Sorkin
    Chloe Zhao

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    wolfali
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    #1204097763

    DGA:

    Lee Isaac Chung
    Emerald Fennell
    David Fincher
    Aaron Sorkin
    Chloe Zhao

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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