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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 11)

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    Milk Money
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    #1204142135

    Lol PYM isn’t winning best film.

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    wolfali
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    #1204142139

    Lol PYM isn’t winning best film.

    Why? Because you don’t like it?

    No one is saying it’s winning Best Picture. In fact I don’t know how many people on here are rooting for it to win Best Picture (I am rooting for Minari and Nomadland more) but to flat out rule out the only film with acting, directing, writing and editing nominations that isn’t Nomadland is a bit daft.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Milk Money
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    #1204142147

    Why? Because you don’t like it?

    Who said that? Minari and Judas have better chances for an upset.

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    wolfali
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    #1204142163

    Minari and Judas have better chances for an upset.

    The last time a film won Picture without director was for Green Book and the only time a film won Picture without Editing was Birdman. Judas and the Black Messiah (which I very much am a fan of) certainly doesn’t have better chances than Promising Young Woman of upsetting for Best Picture. If there is an upset of course because I firmly believe Nomadland is winning.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    wolfali
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    #1204142186

    Who said that?

    You and Monsoon (now Toxique) keep ruling out this film and in Monsoon (sorry Toxique)’s case trashing and gaslighting people predicting the film to do well simply on the basis that you don’t like it so much. It’s ok not to like the film (film is subjective after all and we all have different tastes) as it’s ok for one to not like a film (this isn’t an authoritarian regime) but I don’t think one should rule a film like this from having a chance when it’s done this well. Especially if one is considering something like Judas and the Black Messiah as a potential upset.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    marty
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    #1204142198

    Who said that? Minari and Judas have better chances for an upset.

    … based on? PYW is ahead of both. It has the editing and director nomination combo that only Nomadland does.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    Milk Money
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    #1204142220

    You and Monsoon (now Toxique) keep ruling out this film and in Monsoon (sorry Toxique)’s case trashing and gaslighting people predicting the film to do well simply on the basis that you don’t like it so much. It’s ok not to like the film (film is subjective after all and we all have different tastes) as it’s ok for one to not like a film (this isn’t an authoritarian regime) but I don’t think one should rule a film like this from having a chance when it’s done this well. Especially if one is considering something like Judas and the Black Messiah as a potential upset.

    Um, wrong. Just because I doubt a film’s chances doesn’t mean I don’t like the film. Sound of Metal is one of my favs, but even I have enough sense to realize that it likely won’t be pulling off any major upsets.

    I actually made a positive review of PYM in case you may have forgotten. However, it’s a cool revenge fantasy flick that’ll see its best chances in Screenplay (a la Django Unchained) and Actress (which I’m currently not predicting to win for reasons previously stated).

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    Milk Money
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    #1204142229

    … based on? PYW is ahead of both. It has the editing and director nomination combo that only Nomadland does.

    And? Those films arguably fit more of the Best Picture mold than PYM even though it did well with nominations.

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    wolfali
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    #1204142239

    Sound of Metal is one of my favs, but even I have enough sense to realize that it likely won’t be pulling off any major upsets.

    Fair enough. Sound of Metal isn’t nominated for Best Director so its chances (statically speaking) are slim at a win. Same with Judas and the Black Messiah.

    I actually have a positive review of PYM in case you may have forgotten. However, it’s a cool revenge fantasy flick that’ll see it’s chances in Screenplay (a la Django Unchained) and Actress (which I’m not predicting to win for reasons previously stated).

    My bad! I wrongly assumed because of your prior post that you had some sort of bias against the film (which would be fair enough because as I said film is subjective and not everyone has to like the same film). I would like to convey my apologies to you.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    wolfali
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    #1204142250

    Minari, Judas and the Black Messiah, or Trial of the Chicago 7 could easily win BP over PYW. Milk Money’s assessment is 100% correct.

    And? Those films arguably fit more of the Best Picture mold than PYM even though it did well with nominations.

    I’m sorry but a film about a woman f***ing a fish literally won Best Picture a few years ago. I personally think Best Picture winners can be ascertained more from how much support they have than how conventional they are hence why Promising Young Woman (the only film to be nominated for directing and editing that isn’t Nomadland) has better chances than <i>Judas and the Black Messiah </i>and arguably Minari. We’ve seen films nominated for editing but not directing win Best Picture which is why <i>The Trial of the Chicago 7 </i>has an outside shot of spoiling too but we’ve rarely seen films nominated for directing but not editing win and we’ve never seen a film that was snubbed for both win. This is what effectively kills Judas and the Black Messiah (which again I loved and is one of my favourite films of the year) from winning Best Picture.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    SN
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    #1204142255

    Monsoon (now Toxique)

    Glad to know I’m not the only one who realized that lmao

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    Milk Money
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    #1204142257

    My bad! I wrongly assumed because of your prior post that you had some sort of bias against the film (which would be fair enough because as I said film is subjective and not everyone has to like the same film). I would like to convey my apologies to you.

    Cool beans. 👌

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    wolfali
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    #1204142272

    Also worth mentioning that there are only three films that have gotten in everywhere excl. SAG ensemble (NomadlandPromising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7). For me I feel confident having those as my top 3. <i>Minari </i>could come from behind with a historic win because it certainly is top 4 and it is only building momentum but that’s really it I feel.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    George Ehret
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    #1204142275

    Those films arguably fit more of the Best Picture mold than PYM even though it did well with nominations.

    Would you say that 1917 fits the Best Picture mold more than Parasite? I certainly would. Hell I’d argue that every nominee that year fits the mold more than Parasite except for Joker and maybe JoJo Rabbit. The “mold” of a Best Picture winner is also changing more and more each year. Again, a horror thriller from South Korea won Best Picture over a one-take war movie, a love letter to Hollywood, and a Martin Scorsese mob movie. The old idea of a Best Picture winner just doesn’t exist anymore. Light it on fire. Start from page one

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    George Ehret
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    #1204142282

    Also worth mentioning that there are only three films that have gotten in everywhere excl. SAG ensemble (Nomadland, Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7). For me I feel confident having those as my top 3. <i>Minari </i>could come from behind with a historic win because it certainly is top 4 and it is only building momentum but that’s really it I feel.

    I’m probably gonna wind up predicting Minari to win Ensemble, but if it doesn’t win Screenplay or Director (which it probably won’t win either) then there’s absolutely no hope

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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