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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 11)

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    Melvinezq
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    Aug 7th, 2020
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    #1204133764

    All the same I am very glad about Vinterberg’s nomination, especially for a film that was so personal to him. And the Academy is finishing its 5-10 BP run with the old “8 BP noms, 1 left-field director nom” tradition. If A24 did a bit more campaigning for First Cow I’m sure Reichardt could have been that surprise no. 5

    A24 is still not a “household” name in production community. Even when they focus their campaign on one film, we all still worry whether it will make the cut (especially on that crowded director category).

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    Breaking Brad
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    Dec 21st, 2016
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    #1204133785

    I got 5/5 for Director and Actress but that’s as far as my bragging rights go. Glad I got Vinterberg at 100/1 odds though

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    Dan Jo
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    Aug 16th, 2017
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    #1204133852

    Official Directing nominees:

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    jjjmoss1
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    Mar 16th, 2019
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    #1204133866

    Ensemble nominees Ma Rainey & Miami out, Judas in.

    Guess AMPAS prefers it when real life people aren’t in completely made up plotlines.

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    Gabe Guarin
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    Feb 23rd, 2017
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    #1204134030

    Can we talk about LaKeith Stanfield’s nomination? IN SUPPORTING!

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    gorman
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    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1204134034

    Ensemble nominees Ma Rainey & Miami out, Judas in. Guess AMPAS prefers it when real life people aren’t in completely made up plotlines.

    I’m not mad about Ma Rainey and Miami missing. They’re good, solid films but too stagy for me and I can’t say they were near my personal 10. Also, I noticed a while back that play adaptations never do well in Picture, Screenplay or Director (Moonlight aside, but that’s not your average play adaptation) so, again, I wasn’t that shocked voters didn’t fall in love. Judas is incendiary, and as close to a reckoning with America and the FBI’s racist past that we’ve seen in mainstream/ Academy-recognised cinema, so I’m so glad to see that nominated.

    Overall state of the race after these noms is that Nomadland remains the clear frontrunner. I worry that it’s too clear to avoid backlash – because you could call it locked at the minute and not seem too silly, so maybe it’s got a target on its back. But are there really enough detractors and will they really want to target an indie darling directed by a history-making Asian-American woman when the likeliest alternative is a by-the-numbers Netflix court drama. I’m not sure. Either way, Sorkin missing Director is not a death-knell for Chicago, but it badly needs WGA + PGA + SAG, or at least WGA + PGA.

    Judas was a Director shock away from me calling it a BP dark horse, but even still it and The Father majorly overperformed in a way that makes me think they’ll do well on a preferential ballot. They’re both crowd-pleasers. PYW, Minari and Sound of Metal all did amazing. Truth is, when every film got 5 or 6 nods aside from Mank, it’s hard to tell where they all sit. It’s easy to say that it’s an amazing, diverse line-up though.

    Rough rank:

    1. Nomadland

    2. Chicago 7

    3. Promising Young Woman

    4. Minari

    5. Judas and the Black Messiah

    6. The Father

    7. Sound of Metal

    8. Mank

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    federico rubachin
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    Jan 22nd, 2019
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    #1204134065

    PYW didn’t miss anything important but it’s just not happening.

    why?

     

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    gorman
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    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1204134236

    The way Minari is one of the only 2 best picture nominees at SAG Ensemble. I’m going to go ahead and predict its win now.

    Do people still see a path for it when it isn’t going to win Director, isn’t Top 2 in Original, and missed Editing and Cinematography? I would love it if it did win, and I think Youn will win Supp. Actress, but even still without those 4 wins/ nods I listed is there really much of a precedent for it?

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    Monty
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    Jan 21st, 2015
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    #1204134255

    I used to think that Chicago 7 is in the backseat to upset Nomadland in Picture. But now we really need to watch out for Minari. It didn’t really miss anything substantial the whole season. It is missing picture in Globe and BAFTA because it is nominated in foreign language category. Even Nomadland is missing SAG ensemble nomination which is La La Land’s downfall.
    Minari could be Nomadland’s Moonlight, with Nomadland suffering from Frontrunner Fatigue Syndrome.

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    methaddiction
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    Aug 1st, 2017
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    #1204134263

    I can’t wait for Nomadland to sweep.

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    gorman
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    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1204134350

    I used to think that Chicago 7 is in the backseat to upset Nomadland in Picture. But now we really need to watch out for Minari. It didn’t really miss anything substantial the whole season. It is missing picture in Globe and BAFTA because it is nominated in foreign language category. Even Nomadland is missing SAG ensemble nomination which is La La Land’s downfall. Minari could be Nomadland’s Moonlight, with Nomadland suffering from Frontrunner Fatigue Syndrome.

    Minari needs to surge in Original Screenplay if this is going to happen I think. It could definitely win SAG and Supporting Actress, but until it unseats Chicago and PYW as 1 and 2 in Original I don’t think I can put it 2nd in BP.

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204134386

    Minari missed editing which was pretty crucial. And missing the BAFTA 15 movie longlist is damaging.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    marty
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    Aug 18th, 2020
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    #1204134414

    Very happy with this lineup. Just mad I had SoM and The Father at 9 & 10. I remember thinking about Pawlikowski last night and wanting to put Vintenburg, but I ended ep thinking that would be too left field. I love Another Round, so happy nonetheless.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    String Cheese Theory
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    Aug 16th, 2020
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    #1204134746

    These are the only categories I feel are absolutely locked.

    Nomadland and Chloe Zhao for the win, and the women.

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    TrumpBiden
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    Dec 22nd, 2020
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    #1204134769

    Is anyone else going to comment that 5/8 best picture nominees earned 6 Oscar nominations each, lol.

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