March 15, 2021 at 7:35 am #1204133764
All the same I am very glad about Vinterberg’s nomination, especially for a film that was so personal to him. And the Academy is finishing its 5-10 BP run with the old “8 BP noms, 1 left-field director nom” tradition. If A24 did a bit more campaigning for First Cow I’m sure Reichardt could have been that surprise no. 5
A24 is still not a “household” name in production community. Even when they focus their campaign on one film, we all still worry whether it will make the cut (especially on that crowded director category).March 15, 2021 at 7:37 am #1204133785
I got 5/5 for Director and Actress but that’s as far as my bragging rights go. Glad I got Vinterberg at 100/1 odds thoughMarch 15, 2021 at 7:55 am #1204133852
Official Directing nominees:March 15, 2021 at 7:56 am #1204133866
Ensemble nominees Ma Rainey & Miami out, Judas in.
Guess AMPAS prefers it when real life people aren’t in completely made up plotlines.March 15, 2021 at 8:10 am #1204134030
Can we talk about LaKeith Stanfield’s nomination? IN SUPPORTING!March 15, 2021 at 8:10 am #1204134034
Ensemble nominees Ma Rainey & Miami out, Judas in. Guess AMPAS prefers it when real life people aren’t in completely made up plotlines.
I’m not mad about Ma Rainey and Miami missing. They’re good, solid films but too stagy for me and I can’t say they were near my personal 10. Also, I noticed a while back that play adaptations never do well in Picture, Screenplay or Director (Moonlight aside, but that’s not your average play adaptation) so, again, I wasn’t that shocked voters didn’t fall in love. Judas is incendiary, and as close to a reckoning with America and the FBI’s racist past that we’ve seen in mainstream/ Academy-recognised cinema, so I’m so glad to see that nominated.
Overall state of the race after these noms is that Nomadland remains the clear frontrunner. I worry that it’s too clear to avoid backlash – because you could call it locked at the minute and not seem too silly, so maybe it’s got a target on its back. But are there really enough detractors and will they really want to target an indie darling directed by a history-making Asian-American woman when the likeliest alternative is a by-the-numbers Netflix court drama. I’m not sure. Either way, Sorkin missing Director is not a death-knell for Chicago, but it badly needs WGA + PGA + SAG, or at least WGA + PGA.
Judas was a Director shock away from me calling it a BP dark horse, but even still it and The Father majorly overperformed in a way that makes me think they’ll do well on a preferential ballot. They’re both crowd-pleasers. PYW, Minari and Sound of Metal all did amazing. Truth is, when every film got 5 or 6 nods aside from Mank, it’s hard to tell where they all sit. It’s easy to say that it’s an amazing, diverse line-up though.
2. Chicago 7
3. Promising Young Woman
5. Judas and the Black Messiah
6. The Father
7. Sound of Metal
8. MankMarch 15, 2021 at 8:27 am #1204134236
The way Minari is one of the only 2 best picture nominees at SAG Ensemble. I’m going to go ahead and predict its win now.
Do people still see a path for it when it isn’t going to win Director, isn’t Top 2 in Original, and missed Editing and Cinematography? I would love it if it did win, and I think Youn will win Supp. Actress, but even still without those 4 wins/ nods I listed is there really much of a precedent for it?March 15, 2021 at 8:30 am #1204134255
I used to think that Chicago 7 is in the backseat to upset Nomadland in Picture. But now we really need to watch out for Minari. It didn’t really miss anything substantial the whole season. It is missing picture in Globe and BAFTA because it is nominated in foreign language category. Even Nomadland is missing SAG ensemble nomination which is La La Land’s downfall.
Minari could be Nomadland’s Moonlight, with Nomadland suffering from Frontrunner Fatigue Syndrome.March 15, 2021 at 8:31 am #1204134263
I can’t wait for Nomadland to sweep.March 15, 2021 at 8:40 am #1204134350
I used to think that Chicago 7 is in the backseat to upset Nomadland in Picture. But now we really need to watch out for Minari. It didn’t really miss anything substantial the whole season. It is missing picture in Globe and BAFTA because it is nominated in foreign language category. Even Nomadland is missing SAG ensemble nomination which is La La Land’s downfall. Minari could be Nomadland’s Moonlight, with Nomadland suffering from Frontrunner Fatigue Syndrome.
Minari needs to surge in Original Screenplay if this is going to happen I think. It could definitely win SAG and Supporting Actress, but until it unseats Chicago and PYW as 1 and 2 in Original I don’t think I can put it 2nd in BP.March 15, 2021 at 8:44 am #1204134386
Minari missed editing which was pretty crucial. And missing the BAFTA 15 movie longlist is damaging.
Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.March 15, 2021 at 8:46 am #1204134414
Very happy with this lineup. Just mad I had SoM and The Father at 9 & 10. I remember thinking about Pawlikowski last night and wanting to put Vintenburg, but I ended ep thinking that would be too left field. I love Another Round, so happy nonetheless.
Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)
Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)March 15, 2021 at 9:27 am #1204134746
These are the only categories I feel are absolutely locked.
Nomadland and Chloe Zhao for the win, and the women.
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