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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 11)

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    methaddiction
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    #1204155610

    The industry is going to have to change eventually a lot of people don’t care about going to the movie theater anymore & just wait for everything to be on streaming.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204155618

    The industry is going to have to change eventually a lot of people don’t care about going to the movie theater anymore & just wait for everything to be on streaming.

    That time is not now, and do you really put it past them to not milk out theaters as long as possible?

    FYC
    Everything Everywhere All at Once for everything, everywhere, all at once

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    SN
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    #1204155637

    Juried categories at BAFTA are irrelevant. Some of those people on the juries aren’t even BAFTA members. I don’t care that they nominated Vinterberg. Oscars doing it was clearly the Directors’ branch doing their thing, especially since they DID nominate Fennell and also Fincher who was likewise snubbed by the jury. Get rid of the juries and PYW would have more nominations than Nomadland overall.

    For “doing their own thing”, the directing branch could still have chosen Darius Marder, but they went with the movie that the BAFTA jury chose.

    I don’t disagree that the jury is mostly irrelevant, but the snubs are still a SMALL sign that Nomadland is stronger.

    With an industry that still prefers theaters even during a pandemic, it matters.

    The only thing that matters is if they know the movie isn’t coming from a streaming service. Some studios are even refusing to report actual box office numbers. How is box office that relevant in a year like this?

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    SN
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    #1204155643

    The industry is going to have to change eventually a lot of people don’t care about going to the movie theater anymore & just wait for everything to be on streaming.

    That couldn’t be more wrong. The theatrical marketplace will be back once the pandemic is over. A lot of people still like theaters and studios know they can’t put all their money on streaming.

    But still, in a year were most theaters were closed, box office isn’t that important. They will be when the pandemic is over, but not this year.

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    wolfali
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    #1204155648

    The industry is going to have to change eventually a lot of people don’t care about going to the movie theater anymore

    Well they cared enough to crown a Marvel movie at no.1 in 2019 .

    BAFTA has been following the Globes over the last years

    They have indeed but if there is any year they break with the Globes it’s this year and if there is any film they break with the Globes choice for it’s Promising Young Woman. A topical auteur piece directed by a Brit who is very popular in the industry and led by a woman who is one of the most celebrated British thespians within the industry right now. A film that also over-performed so much with the BAFTA membership that it managed to get nominations for Original Score and a long-list mention for Bo Burnham.

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    Skyler Lindquist
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    #1204155667

    If/when Zhao has the Director award on lock, they should pull a 2007 and plan the presenters accordingly. Get Kathryn Bigelow to present!

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    George Ehret
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    #1204155676

    For “doing their own thing”, the directing branch could still have chosen Darius Marder, but they went with the movie that the BAFTA jury chose.

    And the BAFTA chose him right at the end of voting. I think Gary Oldman, Steven Yeun, Viola Davis, Sacha Baron Cohen, Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, and Amanda Seyfried would all like to have a word with you on whether or not BAFTA matters.

    FYC
    Everything Everywhere All at Once for everything, everywhere, all at once

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    SN
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    #1204155678

    They have indeed but if there is any year they break with the Globes it’s this year and if there is any film they break with the Globes choice for it’s Promising Young Woman. A topical auteur piece directed by a Brit who is very popular in the industry and led by a woman who is one of the most celebrated British thespians within the industry right now. A film that also over-performed so much with the BAFTA membership that it managed to get nominations for Original Score and a long-list mention for Bo Burnham.

    The Favourite won the most awards two years ago, including British Film. Still lost Best Film to Roma.

    Another thing is that BAFTA usually doesn’t split Best Film and Director. Gravity and The Shape of Water won Director but lost to films that won the Golden Globe, which is not the case for PYW.

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    wolfali
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    #1204155688

    Gravity and The Shape of Water won Director but lost to films that won the Golden Globe, which is not the case for PYW.

    The King’s Speech won over The Social Network at BAFTA whilst Fincher won Best Director. No Country for Old Men lost to Atonement even though the Coens won Best Director.

    Not saying <i>Promising Young Woman </i>will win the BAFTA and frankly I won’t even predict to even if it wins PGA but it’s not as if there isn’t precedence for a “British film” that’s popular with the BAFTA membership to win.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204155691

    I’m not trying to make an argument for why PYW is gonna win BAFTA, but they really do love their Brits. British star, British director/writer, partly British crew. The damn movie could honestly win British Film over The Father. I’m not predicting it, but I see the case Wolfali is making

    FYC
    Everything Everywhere All at Once for everything, everywhere, all at once

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    #1204155706
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    Sagand
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    #1204155729

    Bafta has tended to just follow the lead of the Globes in recent years. However at least part of that will have been to do with the timing of voting, Bafta winner voting always opened the Tuesday after the Globes in previous years. This year however Bafta winners voting doesn’t even open until tomorrow so I would expect a little more variance between the two in future with a much larger gap.

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    SN
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    #1204155731

    The King’s Speech won over The Social Network at BAFTA whilst Fincher won Best Director. No Country for Old Men lost to Atonement even though the Coens won Best Director.

    Atonement won the Golden Globe, so it just proves my point lol.

    King’s Speech/Social Network could be a precedent, but Fincher was nowhere near as strong as Zhao is this year.

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    Sagand
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    #1204155735

    The King’s Speech won over The Social Network at BAFTA whilst Fincher won Best Director. No Country for Old Men lost to Atonement even though the Coens won Best Director.

    This was in a(n another) different era of Bafta voting when each chapter choose the winner so the Directors chapter choose the Directing winner.

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    JV
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    #1204155737

    BAFTA’s voting system (Best Film) is different than AMPAS. They don’t use a preferential ballot, so it’s easier for passion/artsy picks like RomaThe Revenant, Boyhood to overcome the consensus choice. If a movie can get the majority of supporters, then it will win.

    That’s I don’t see anything other than Nomadland winning, It will probably get the majority of first votes. However, just like Three Billboards won over The Shape of Water, PYW could win over Nomadland.

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