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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 11)

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    wolfali
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    #1204134835

    For me the Screenplay categories are easy to call. I would be surprised if after the headlines about the achievements of Chloe Zhao and Emerald Fennell at becoming the first pair of female writer-directors nominated in directing if these two ladies walk home empty handed.

    I also think Nomadland will win Picture and Adapted Screenplay is almost always tied with the Picture winner (if eligible/submitted in Adapted). If it loses Adapted Screenplay (which I would say would be to The Father which I think will win the BAFTA for Adapted Screenplay) then I’d argue Promising Young Woman will be winning Best Picture over it (which whilst I don’t see happening, I do have the film in second place).

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    SN
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    #1204135055

    I don’t even think we can call a runner-up this year. I think this is the first year since Argo where the frontrunner is truly unstoppable and the entire competition has many things to overcome. There were clear runner-ups all years since Argo, but this years is probably breaking that route.

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    SN
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    #1204135069

    Just realized there are 6 films with 6 nominations and PYW is the least nominated BP nominee.

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    SN
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    #1204135085

    Well considering Promising Yooung Woman is the only non <i>Nomadland </i>film that has gotten into acting, directing, screenplay and editing I feel quite confident that it’s likely the runner up.

    BlacKkKlansman had acting, directing, screenplay and editing (it also had SAG unlike PYW) and it wasn’t the runner-up. Vice also had the same things but it was a non factor.

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    String Cheese Theory
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    #1204135125

    Just realized there are 6 films with 6 nominations and PYW is the least nominated BP nominee.

    Yep. This is a concern for PYW fans. But depends which branches are the biggest.

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    wolfali
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    #1204135130

    Just realized there are 6 films with 6 nominations and PYW is the least nominated BP nominee.

    Green Book also had 5 nominations. So did The Departed.

    Not saying it will win Best Picture (I do think Nomadland has this) but it’s not implausible for this film to be the Best Picture runner up.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    andrelouis
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    #1204135153

    Eh it missed editing and I dont think it’s going to win Screenplay.

    Absoultely agree with this. To be fair tho, the fact Minari got an ACE nomination proves that it’s probably close to the top 5, maybe at 6th/7th perhaps? What hurts it the most, as you said, is with screenplay. Right now, it’s not the frontrunner. Add to the fact that it didn’t even get shortlisted in BAFTA best picture, it’s surely a longshot.

    I’m contented with Nomadland winning, but a suprise is surely welcome!

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    SN
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    #1204135167

    I thought you just said this race isn’t comparable to any other lol?

    This is not what I said. I literally compared it with the Argo year lol.

    My point is that having all acting, directing, screenplay and editing don’t necessarily make a runner-up. I remember many people said BlacKkKlansman was the frontrunner just because it had all the important precursor noms. Both Green Book and Roma missed crucial things but were still ahead.

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    SN
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    #1204135171

    Green Book also had 5 nominations. So did The Departed.

    Not saying it will win Best Picture (I do think Nomadland has this) but it’s not implausible for this film to be the Best Picture runner up.

    I was saying that just for the sake of curiosity lol. Keep calm I’m not saying your favorite film can’t win.

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    wolfali
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    #1204135185

    I was saying that just for the sake of curiosity lol. Keep calm I’m not saying your favorite film can’t win.

    I am calm…

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    federico rubachin
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    #1204135200

    in awards daily they do a poll but applying the preferential ballot and nomadland and PYW were well above the rest so apparently the preferential ballot benefits PYW a lot

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    John Berchmans
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    #1204135287

    Minari doesn’t stand any chance at a Best Picture win. The film’s that have the best shot at upsetting Nomadland are Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman. One of those two films will win Original Screenplay and Chicago 7 will probably win Editing. But really there’s no point in discussing hypotheticals because Nomadland is so far ahead of everyone else that it’s basically unstoppable at this point.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    John Berchmans
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    #1204135295

    Can we talk about LaKeith Stanfield’s nomination? IN SUPPORTING!

    Called it.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    John Berchmans
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    #1204135302

    Vinderberg’s nomination might be the biggest surprise of the last few seasons. I keep forgetting he actually made it into Director when I think about Oscar nominations today: that’s how much of a surprise it was.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    Marcus.H
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    #1204135374

    IMDb is winning AGAIN after News and D5B missed PGA.

    This time, another 2 lowest-rating contenders, ONIM and Ma Rainey, got snubbed at Oscars BP (Mank in screenplay and editing) while the highest-rating The Father, SoM, Judas all remained safe in the lineup. RT 98% or RT average critic rating 8.2 isn’t saving Ma Rainey and D5B.

    IMDb current rating:
    1. 8.1- Soul
    2. 8.1- The Father
    3. 7.8- Trial of the Chicago 7
    3. 7.8- Sound of Metal
    5. 7.7- Judas and the black Messiah
    5. 7.7- Minari
    7. 7.6- Nomadland
    8. 7.5- Promising Young Woman
    9. 7.2- One Night in Miami
    10. 7.1- Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    11. 7.0- Mank
    12. 6.9- News of the World
    13. 6.5- Da 5 Bloods

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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