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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 12)

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    Sean C
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    #1204189553

    Well, it’s DGA day, time to further coronate Zhao.

    I expect King will win debut director, but that category is a bit more open.

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    methaddiction
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    #1204189555

    It’s her day (I like how this is the one category we can all agree on) 

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    wolfali
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    #1204189558

    Methaddiction shh. Don’t tell Jacko that Aaron Sorkin is not winning best director!

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    George Ehret
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    #1204189565

    My personal pick is Emerald Fennell, but I can’t complain about Chloe, she’s a queen.

    My prediction for First-Time Director is Darius Marder. Got a feeling

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    wolfali
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    #1204189568

    I actually have Regina in third for First Time Director. She’s in a worse position than Bradley Cooper was.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    methaddiction
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    #1204189586

    The 10 experts not predicting Nomadland for Best Picture..

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    estrelas
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    #1204189595

    I actually have Regina in third for First Time Director. She’s in a worse position than Bradley Cooper was.

    I also have her down in third. I’m predicting Darius Marder with Florian Zeller as the spoiler.

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    nevkm
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    #1204189606

    The 10 experts not predicting Nomadland for Best Picture..

    Some experts predicting Trial to take BP and no other award

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    wolfali
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    #1204189608

    Trial literally has no chance at winning. Don’t let the fans of the film trick you into thinking otherwise.

    It needed WGA and PGA imo for it to viably pull an upset.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    George Ehret
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    #1204189626

    Is Trial even in the Screenplay race anymore? PYW has been dominating there

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    Sean C
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    #1204189717

    Is Trial even in the Screenplay race anymore? PYW has been dominating there

    Given that it just won SAG Ensemble, I would say it’s still in the race, even if I wouldn’t be betting on it.

    Despite Sorkin’s fame, he has not been as big an AMPAS favourite through the years as some might assume; indeed, before The Social Network he missed a number of nominations that he could have had, especially for A Few Good Men (which was a Best Picture nominee but didn’t get screenplay even though it was a perfect example of the sort of film where the screenplay gets singled out).

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    George Ehret
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    #1204189724

    They also snubbed Steve Jobs. I’m not too worried about PYW right now, especially if it wins BAFTA

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204189756

    The thing is, right, Nomadland is the only one that has an even remotely clear path to winning.

    It’s definitely going to win Director and 95% certain on Adapted Screenplay. It’s quite likely going to win Actress too.

    On the other hand, Trial Of The Chicago 7 wasn’t nominated for director. Is probably not winning editing anymore. And Kaluuya is a lock for Supporting Actor, tbh – Sacha doesn’t stand a chance. And it’s not gonna win Original Screenplay now either, I don’t think. And even if it did; that’s only one other Win, which would be unconventional and hasn’t happened that much outside of Spotlight and The Greatest Show On Earth.

    I think Promising Young Woman has a slightly stronger chance. Mulligan could potentially win in Best Actress (but, if I’m honest, that category is just a mess at this point) and it’s probably going to win Adapted Screenplay. So, if it won in Picture, that would be three wins in total, which makes sense. The only problem is the complete mess that is the Lead Actress category.  Vanessa Kirby and Andra Day give great performances in movies that don’t live up to their performances. Then, you have Frances MacDormand who has won twice already, but is in the Best Picture frontrunner. Then, you have Viola Davis, who’s win as a black actress, would be historic. The only problem is that her movie is completely stolen from her by Chadwick Boseman, who completely overshadows her. And the film itself is pretty good, but it clearly wasn’t held in high enough esteem for a nomination in Best Picture… Logically, Carey Mulligan makes the most sense. And, in my opinion, gives the best performance in this category. But I have the feeling that the Academy will want to be diverse this year (due to certain events) and they’ll give the Oscar to either Viola Davis or Andra Day. (In my humble opinion, I find it to be quite irksome that they’re most likely award someone to try and cover up the lack of diversity within the industry, which, to me, has always been a bigger problem than OscarsSoWhite or whatever. The reason they are so white is because black filmmakers have a harder time getting films made, even if they are universally renowned like, say, Spike Lee.)

    I would, also, say that The Father could have stood a reasonable chance at winning, were it not for Boseman’s performance being so locked. Hopkins is the main point of praise for this film and him having a 0% chance of winning doesn’t help. If he was the frontrunner, he could have helped to bring hype for the film in Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actress and, of course, Picture. Unfortunately, it’s not going to happen.

    Unless something absolutely shocking happens, then Nomadland is winning easily.

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
    Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/11higuys/

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    George Ehret
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    #1204189808

    Yeah I agree with all of this. It’s just that Nomadland has had so many hurdles it needed to overcome that it overcame: winning the Globe, winning PGA, even winning TIFF Audience. It’s looking like it’s going down the 12 Years a Slave path right now. I feel like the door for PYW, Chicago, or Minari pulling an upset has been closed and it’s not gonna be opened again. I just don’t see any evidence that it’s gonna happen at this moment.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    wolfali
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    #1204189969

    If Promising Young Woman wins the Original Screenplay BAFTA (which whilst I’m predicting it there I won’t be cocky enough to call it a lock) then I find it hard to believe that <i>The Trial of the Chicago 7 </i>would come out of nowhere at the last second and win. BAFTA +  WGA is a pretty lethal combo.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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