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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 2)

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    Chris Beachum
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    #1203811210

    Part 2 is now open.

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    loudtoilet
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    Oscar 2021 is going to be way too political to snub Zhao for Fincher. It would work somewhat if she was snubbed for Lee or Wolfe. AMPAS won’t risk it and she has stellar reviews too. AMPAS 2021 will want to make history in as many categories as they can. I love Fincher like the next guy and he should’ve had the Oscar by now but this year is going to be driven by politics even more so than before. Emmy’s were just a warm up.

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    diego
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    Oscar 2021 is going to be way too political to snub Zhao for Fincher. It would work somewhat if she was snubbed for Lee or Wolfe. AMPAS won’t risk it and she has stellar reviews too. AMPAS 2021 will want to make history in as many categories as they can. I love Fincher like the next guy and he should’ve had the Oscar by now but this year is going to be driven by politics even more so than before. Emmy’s were just a warm up.

    It’s not like Zhao is going to go home empty-handed if she doesn’t win BD. She’s probably going to be taking a BP or a BAS Oscar home either way or both (maybe an Editing one).

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    Lil Tony
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    David Fincher should have won long before now. Academy, please give him Best Director this time

    I STAN Lady Gaga and Roddy Ricch

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    Monty
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    Oscar 2021 is going to be way too political to snub Zhao for Fincher. It would work somewhat if she was snubbed for Lee or Wolfe. AMPAS won’t risk it and she has stellar reviews too. AMPAS 2021 will want to make history in as many categories as they can. I love Fincher like the next guy and he should’ve had the Oscar by now but this year is going to be driven by politics even more so than before. Emmy’s were just a warm up.

    The winners are not decided by discussion. They are decided by individual votes. I think Zhao could even be snubbed at nomination which is only decided by the director branch. Just look at Katherine Bigelow at 2012.

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    loudtoilet
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    Bigelow in 2012 didn’t have urgency to award. She won already. Plus times were different. Zhao isn’t missing a nom, not with these reviews, all other awards that she could pick up as listed in Diego’s post (BP, BAS, BE) and not after last year’s controversy re: female director snub.

    And yes, I’m aware that committee doesn’t vote but individual voters can be aware of trends, controversies, etc and influenced by them.

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    John Berchmans
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    If the Academy wants to reward people of color in 2021 there are easier categories to do it in, like Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Actress, and Supporting Actor. The Academy won’t feel any urgency to reward a POC in Best Director when a minority of last decade’s Best Director winners were white. Fincher has the more praised direction based on early reactions, he has the narrative, and he’s an overdue legend. They love to reward films that are masters of craft, and Nomadland is too subtle for Zhao’s direction to receive much attention from voters. Fincher will easily sweep once he wins the Globe.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    Eddy Q
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    The Academy won’t feel any urgency to reward a POC in Best Director when a minority of last decade’s Best Director winners were white.

    No they weren’t. Mexican/Latino does not automatically equal POC.

    Fincher has the more praised direction based on early reactions

    He does?

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    David
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    He does?

    Not by a large margin, but from the reviews it does seem like it. This is still Fincher’s award to lose (director). The Academy doesn’t have to give Zhao director especially considering the fact that she can very well win 3 different categories outside of director. I think she takes home Adapted screenplay and I have Nomadland winning bp as of right now.

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    loudtoilet
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    If the Academy wants to reward people of color in 2021 there are easier categories to do it in, like Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Actress, and Supporting Actor.

    Picture for what movie? Right now, best reviewed ones happen to be Zhao’s and white director’s movies with predominatnly white casts. So are there expectations that Ma Rainey’s or Blakc Judas are going to be better than them? Regina King’s movie isn’t. Spike lee’s movie isn’t. We don’t know if Billie Holiday will move or stay. Or is Soul (PoC lead, white director) going to break animated curse and win Picture?

    As for Actor/Supporting Actor, is Boseman going Lead or Supporting for Ma rainey’s? Hopkins praise is GOAT level defeaning, but Boseman has sentimental narrative. Good for nom-is-your-award, not sure if good enough for win. Cakewalk in Supporting, though.

     

    The Academy won’t feel any urgency to reward a POC in Best Director when a minority of last decade’s Best Director winners were white. Fincher has the more praised direction based on early reactions, he has the narrative, and he’s an overdue legend. They love to reward films that are masters of craft, and Nomadland is too subtle for Zhao’s direction to receive much attention from voters. Fincher will easily sweep once he wins the Globe.

    I agree about craft. Director’s Branch is pretty consistent in that they go with craft over narrative/politics.

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    Bassett
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    The biggest problem with Zhao winning Director (apart from her being a woman of color) is her complete and utter lack of experience. Nomadland is only her 3rd movie and the first two were extremely small and indie. I feel that no matter how great her direction is, they won’t rush to give her Best Director especially when she’s up against the overdue guy who was notoriously robbed by the Cats director

    This said I see her winning Picture and Screenplay which would still make a huge night for her

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supp Actor - Daniel Kaluuya, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II

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    John Berchmans
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    As for Actor/Supporting Actor, is Boseman going Lead or Supporting for Ma rainey’s? Hopkins praise is GOAT level defeaning, but Boseman has sentimental narrative. Good for nom-is-your-award, not sure if good enough for win. Cakewalk in Supporting, though.

    Boseman is in lead, but there are still strong POC contenders in Supporting Actor like Leslie Odom Jr and Lakeith Stanford. Plus, it’s possible that Daniel Kaluuya could be moved to supporting, in which case he could easily sweep.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    loudtoilet
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    The biggest problem with Zhao winning Director (apart from her being a woman of color) is her complete and utter lack of experience. Nomadland is only her 3rd movie and the first two were extremely small and indie. I feel that no matter how great her direction is, they won’t rush to give her Best Director especially when she’s up against the overdue guy who was notoriously robbed by the Cats director This said I see her winning Picture and Screenplay which would still make a huge night for her

    Boseman is in lead, but there are still strong POC contenders in Supporting Actor like Leslie Odom Jr and Lakeith Stanford. Plus, it’s possible that Daniel Kaluuya could be moved to supporting, in which case he could easily sweep.

    Good points both posts!

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    OccultCherry
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    Desperately hoping AMPAS pulls through and rewards Zhao. Nothing would make me happier than to see her sweep the precursors and steal Fincher’s thunder. 🙂

    FYC:

    Picture: Nomadland
    Director: Chloe Zhao
    Leading Actress: Frances McDormand
    Leading Actor: Anthony Hopkins
    Supporting Actress: Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Adapted Screenplay: The Father
    Original Screenplay: Minari

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    Stank83
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    #1203811561

    1. Fincher
    2. Zhao

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