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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 2)

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    David
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    #1203853223

    Also, the reason why I’m predicting Lee for Direcgor is that he’s at the forefront of the Black Lives Matter movement, which saw a massive resurgence and it’s peak popularity this year. And if the Oscars don’t nominate Spike Lee for something in this year of all year’s, they’ll likely receive a massive amount of backlash. Plus, it just feels wrong.

    I honestly get where you’re coming from, but Spike isn’t the only Black director that is in contention this year, so I don’t think they NEED to nominate him to avoid the backlash. I do think one or two black directors will make the lineup and I think it will be Shaka King and either Lee Daniels or maybe George C. Wolfe. Also, don’t write off Regina King, I honestly don’t see her making it bc the direction in Miami was pretty good,  but nothing extrodinary and Wolfe will most likely have a better shot due to his film feeling less stagey than Miami. I’m not writing Spike off, but I do think there are other black directors in better positions of making the lineup than him right now.

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    JackO
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    #1203853243

    They just nominated Lee for director with Blackkklansmen. If he doesnt make it in for a film that was received worse than that one, that would be par for the course. Plenty of writers/directors had their oscar follow-ups flop out. First Man comes to mind.

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    The Person Formerly Known As Linguini
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    #1203853349

    They just nominated Lee for director with Blackkklansmen. If he doesnt make it in for a film that was received worse than that one, that would be par for the course. Plenty of writers/directors had their oscar follow-ups flop out. First Man comes to mind.

    Da 5 Bloods is not a flop… I know GD is saying that it was a blip, but it is Netflix’s 2nd best reviewed movie right now, after Ma Rainey.

    rubbish

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    wolfali
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    #1203853385

    Spike Lee is likelier for a nom than Regina King.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    David
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    #1203853439

    Spike Lee is likelier for a nom than Regina King.

    I agree. Also, I just wanted to make it clear that I never said Regina is more likelier than Spike, I just noted that she’s in the conversation as well in terms of other black directors being in contention. I’m pretty sure neither of them are getting in even if there is 3 spots still up for grabs. That being said, I hope they prove me wrong…

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    fyras19
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    #1203853464

    I don’t think George C. Wolfe is ahead of Spike Lee either. Most reviews I read indicate that it feel like a play and that won’t help him. Shaka King and especially Lee Daniels could get in if their films are good and well-directed.

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    David
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    #1203853498

    I don’t think George C. Wolfe is ahead of Spike Lee either.

    As of right now, I have Wolfe ahead of Spike mainly bc the buzz surrounding Ma Rainey is very high right now and I expect it to stay like that till the end of Feb. That being said, I don’t think that buzz will help translate into a best director nom. ‘Da 5 Bloods’ has minimal buzz right now, but I do see some type resurgence coming about right before voting begins, but I doubt that’ll push Spike over the edge for a best director nom either unless most of these upcoming films flop (which I doubt will be the case). I really like Shaka King and Lee Daniel’s chances of making it in if their films live up to the hype and are well received. Apart from those two though, I don’t see the others making it in.

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    BudnP
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    #1203853535

    That being said, i still think Chicago 7 wins Screenplay and Editing right now.

    Hm.. I don’t know. I think it has a slight chance to get a Supporting Actor win for Mark Rylance or Sacha Baron Cohen. I think Leslie Odom Jr. and Daniel Kaluuya are, also, possible, though. That’s what I’m loving a bit more about this year’s Oscars – everything seems slightly more open than usual.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203853663

    To all the people saying that the Oscars won’t face backlash if they snub Spike Lee because they have plenty of other POC to choose from, you’re basically giving them it’s okay for them to just pick one POC, pat themselves on the back and call it a day.

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    fyras19
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    #1203853971

    To all the people saying that the Oscars won’t face backlash if they snub Spike Lee because they have plenty of other POC to choose from, you’re basically giving them it’s okay for them to just pick one POC, pat themselves on the back and call it a day.

    I think the main reason they won’t face backlash if they don’t nominate Spike Lee is because Da 5 bloods seems unlikely to get into BP. Only Foxcatcher and Cold war managed to achieve that feet in the last decade.

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    Edgar Pereira
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    #1203854347

    Best Director seems specially fluid this year. Apart from Chloé Zhao (NOMADLAND) and David Fincher (MANK), I don’t feel secure about any other contenders. I believe A24 will be pushing MINARI really hard and the movie checks all the boxes of a critics darling, so I’m expecting Lee Isaac Chung to be nominated. As for Aaron Sorkin (THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7)… he feels shaky for me, because I believe the movie relies mostly on the amazing screenplay he wrote, so there’s another category to honor him and Netflix might struggle to have 2 director nominees. Greengrass helms Universal’s big awards push and NEWS OF THE WORLD looks like a “director’s movie”… But then I’ve a hunch Shaka King might impress with JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH – go watch NEWLYWEEDS.
    Best Director feels like a question mark for me

    Edgar Pereira
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    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    Edgar Pereira
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    #1203854352

    Right now, I’m predicting MA RAINEY’S for:
    * Best Picture
    * Best Actress (Davis)
    * Best Actor (Boseman)
    * Best Cinematography
    * Best Production Design
    * Best Makeup & Hair

    Possibilities:
    * Best Costume Design (great contenders this year and it might be the only field where they’ll be able to nominate EMMA., AMMONITE, MULAN or THE GLORIAS)
    * Best Sound (since they merged Editing with Mixing, only the best of the best will pop here)

    Can happen:
    * Best Adapted Screenplay (not that universal praise for the screenplay and Netflix might want to push I’M THINKING OF ENDING THINGS in this category)
    * Best Editing & Best Director (if they really go for the movie)

    Edgar Pereira
    .
    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    wolfali
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    #1203854628

    Best Director seems specially fluid this year. Apart from Chloé Zhao (NOMADLAND) and David Fincher (MANK), I don’t feel secure about any other contenders. I believe A24 will be pushing MINARI really hard and the movie checks all the boxes of a critics darling, so I’m expecting Lee Isaac Chung to be nominated. As for Aaron Sorkin (THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7)… he feels shaky for me, because I believe the movie relies mostly on the amazing screenplay he wrote, so there’s another category to honor him and Netflix might struggle to have 2 director nominees. Greengrass helms Universal’s big awards push and NEWS OF THE WORLD looks like a “director’s movie”… But then I’ve a hunch Shaka King might impress with JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH – go watch NEWLYWEEDS. Best Director feels like a question mark for me

    Florian Zeller says hi.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Hoster1
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    #1203854675

    Fincher and Zhao are only safes are imo.

    I have Zeller in 3rd, but I also believe he will be snubbed at DGA, but he’s the only one that screams the ‘showing up on nomination day despite DGA snub’ energy.

    The two remaining slots between Daniels, Greengrass and Wolfe. Sorkin may make some precursors but imo will face the snark from Director’s branch.

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    Dolores
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    #1203854717

    Fincher and Zhao are only safes are imo. I have Zeller in 3rd, but I also believe he will be snubbed at DGA, but he’s the only one that screams the ‘showing up on nomination day despite DGA snub’ energy. The two remaining slots between Daniels, Greengrass and Wolfe. Sorkin may make some precursors but imo will face the snark from Director’s branch.

    Actually Zeller screams precursors “checked” then snubbed when comes noms day. I agree Sorkin isn’t getting in.

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