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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 2)

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    wolfali
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    #1203858967

    The irony that in a normal year Da 5 Bloods would have been treated as a summer film but now because of the extended season it’s like it came out in April.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203858971

    Day is no Day-Lewis

    Lol the way their names are so close.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1203859012

    The last time a studio had netted than three Best Picture nominees was MGM in 1936/37.

    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/netflix-could-break-85-record-211021141.html#:~:text=Netflix%20could%20make%20Oscars%20history,ninth%20Academy%20Awards%20in%201937.

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1203860302

    The last time a studio had netted than three Best Picture nominees was MGM in 1936/37. https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/netflix-could-break-85-record-211021141.html#:~:text=Netflix%20could%20make%20Oscars%20history,ninth%20Academy%20Awards%20in%201937.

    Of course, the big difference is that MGM was a huge power player of the Hollywood Golden Age and Netflix is a streaming service and this is 85 years ago…but you never know.

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    fyras19
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    #1203860311

    Netflix will have at least 3 nominees, and it could get in for Da 5 bloods and/or The midnight sky, depending on how good the upcoming studio films are. Also we don’t know how they industry is going to react to Hillbilly Elegy, although I know that’s probably not going to happen.

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    marty
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    #1203860368

    Netflix, the studio which only won its first Acting award last year, and has never won BP despite having the appropriate nominees, is not magically beat the all-time record and get 4 or 5 Best Picture nominations.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    fyras19
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    #1203860508

    Netflix, the studio which only won its first Acting award last year, and has never won BP despite having the appropriate nominees, is not magically beat the all-time record and get 4 or 5 Best Picture nominations.

    It got the most nominations of any studio last year, and it won the second biggest prize the year before. So I guess they’re on the right path. And it’s not “magically” beating the all-time record, there’s no competition from the big Hollywood studios, and their slate is bigger than it ever was.

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    SN
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    #1203861034

    Netflix is NOT gonna have more than 3 nominees. Mank and Ma Rainey are locks. If there’s another one, it’ll be either Chicago 7 or Da 5 Bloods.

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    marty
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    #1203861122

    It got the most nominations of any studio last year, and it won the second biggest prize the year before. So I guess they’re on the right path.

    The path that all other studios, none of which have ever gotten more than 3 nominations, have followed?

    And it’s not “magically” beating the all-time record, there’s no competition from the big Hollywood studios, and their slate is bigger than it ever was.

    There is competition. There is LESS competition, but it’s still plenty. “they have more movies than before” does not mean they will have 50%+ Best Picture nominations.

    There is absolutely no way that Netflix is getting 5 nominations. 4, maybe- a small possibility- but not 5. No Academy member is going to be happy with half (or more) of the line up being from the same studio, especially not when that studio’s claim to fame is accelerating the demise of the theatre industry. They will have a shorter line up before they’ll give filler slots to Netflix.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    fyras19
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    #1203861295

    There is competition. There is LESS competition, but it’s still plenty. “they have more movies than before” does not mean they will have 50%+ Best Picture nominations. There is absolutely no way that Netflix is getting 5 nominations. 4, maybe- a small possibility- but not 5. No Academy member is going to be happy with half (or more) of the line up being from the same studio, especially not when that studio’s claim to fame is accelerating the demise of the theatre industry. They will have a shorter line up before they’ll give filler slots to Netflix.

    I also think 5 nominations is a big stretch and I’m not predicting it, and even 4 is too much, but it’s very possible. I think Mank, Chicago 7 and Ma rainey are getting in no matter what so they already have 3, and I’ve said that getting more than 3 depends of the reception of the upcoming studio films such as News of the world, The U.S vs Billie Holiday, Judas and the black Massiah…

    And no studio has achieved that record is because: 1 – there were only 5 BP nominees for the most part (and even then Miramax managed to get 3  in 2002, more than 50%) and 2 – they faced enormous competition from each other. This year, there’s no big studio that has more than 1 BP contender, only Netflix and Amazon have more than 1.

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    SN
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    #1203861318

    there’s no competition from the big Hollywood studios

    What about Nomadland, One Night in Miami, The Father, Minari, News of the World, Judas and the Black Messiah, The US vs Billie Holiday and others?

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    fyras19
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    #1203861353

    What about Nomadland, One Night in Miami, The Father, Minari, News of the World, Judas and the Black Messiah, The US vs Billie Holiday and others?

    I think you misunderstood what I said, I meant that while Netflix has 5-7 BP contenders, there isn’t a big studio that has more than 1, so they’re not really competition for Netflix, the way Sony was last year for example. And we don’t know how good 3 of those films are, although I’m pretty confident in the chances of the other 4.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203865413

    The last time a studio had netted than three Best Picture nominees was MGM in 1936/37. https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/netflix-could-break-85-record-211021141.html#:~:text=Netflix%20could%20make%20Oscars%20history,ninth%20Academy%20Awards%20in%201937.

    Thanks for doing the research for us. This pretty much confirms that Netflix will only get in for Mank, Chicago 7, and Ma Rainey. Flopbilly Elegy’s reviews don’t even matter in BP: it would have missed anyway.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203865439

    The academy will nominate 8 films or less in BP before they put a 4th Netflix film there. We already have a 4th and 5th streaming film anyway with One Night in Miami and Soul.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203865469

    Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and Sound of Metal all dropping in December with Nomadland premeiring on the 4th (meaning a virtual release sooner than later)… It’s like an early holiday present! (And Minari starts in NY/LA in December… which means more people get to see it and we’re one step closer to a release of Mosseri’s score!)

    AMC’s still open where I live, so hopefully I get to see Nomadland and The Father in a mostly empty theater before they close for good.

    The good news about the pandemic is normally I’d have to go to the city to see both of those films, like I did for Parasite last year. But since there’s no movies right now my local theater will definitely have them.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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