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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 2)

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    Tooner
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    #1203880654

    If this happens it will be the end of Goldderby lmao

    i may be living under a rock but what with Ryan Murphy? Isn’t he just the glee guy?

    also other question what happened with The French Dispatch? Is it not for this season?

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    wolfali
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    #1203880691

    We keep seeing this year how female led films are doing well at precursors and critics awards except sometimes they’re getting into Picture categories but missing for their female leads. Look at <i>Nomadland </i>getting into that Sunset Circle awards place everywhere except for McDormand. Look at The Assistant getting in at the Gothams without Garner.

    Are we headed for an Amy Adams in Arrival type snub this year where the film surpasses expectations but misses for its acclaimed lead performance and if so what film is it? NomadlandPromising Young Woman? I mean I think Mulligan is safe-is and McDormand is locked but I’m wondering if we’re underestimating surprises here.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    JackO
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    #1203880707

    That is far from the truth. People were literally shouting up and down about how Tenet was winning Best Picture on here because it was “the film that was going to SAVE cinemas”.

    people were not even a couple weeks ago still trying to make tenet happen like it didnt just kill the business.

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    Dorsey
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    #1203880717

    Are we headed for an Amy Adams in Arrival type snub this year where the film surpasses expectations but misses for its acclaimed lead performance and if so what film is it? Nomadland? Promising Young Woman? I mean I think Mulligan is safe-is and McDormand is locked but I’m wondering if we’re underestimating surprises here.

     

    Might be McDormand. Everyone is mentioning her like she’s a given but nobody is arguing that she might actually win. She could lose out for a passion pick.

    FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
    Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
    Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    wolfali
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    #1203880719

    and ofc we have films like Da 5 bloods, Pieces of a woman, US vs Billie Holiday and Promising young women that could get in.

    Agreed completely.

    I’d also add Emma to that list which I can see being the Ford vs Ferrari of this year.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    OneAndOnly
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    #1203880759

    Agreed completely. I’d also add Emma to that list which I can see being the Ford vs Ferrari of this year.

    But Ford v Ferrari did the festivals, was released in November (in a regular year), had two movie stars leading,  and did pretty good box office.

    Emma will be forgotten outside of maybe costumes/production design.

    Have a great day if you see this!

    FYC: Anthony Hopkins- The Father
    FYC: Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Male/Straight/BLM

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    wolfali
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    #1203881273

    But Ford v Ferrari did the festivals, was released in November (in a regular year), had two movie stars leading, and did pretty good box office. Emma will be forgotten outside of maybe costumes/production design.

    Yes but people keep going on about how the festivals “don’t matter” so much this year.

    Regardless of what you think Emma is still a very popular film (that has had a good box office too but that seems to “not matter” this year) with the buzziest star on the plant right now and is one of the only ones we know voters have seen. It could very well have a Bale type run for Taylor-Joy and dominate technicals and then get into Picture.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    fyras19
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    #1203881704

    Might be McDormand. Everyone is mentioning her like she’s a given but nobody is arguing that she might actually win. She could lose out for a passion pick.

    The only reason nobody is arguing for a McDormand win is because she has two lead Oscars, the latter of which she won 3 years ago. Nomadland is completely safe in Picture, director, lead actress, adapted screenplay and cinematography, and probably will get in for editing (and maybe supporting actor too). So 5-7 nominations, Parasite got 6, Green book got 5 and Spotlight got 6.

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    Butz
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    #1203881844

    Why is George C. Wolfe that low on the Director predictions? Yes, movies that are based on a play don’t tend to get directing nominations but the film will be nominated across the board (probably either the 2nd or 3rd most nominated movie of the night depending on News of the World’s quality, either way probably 10+ nominations) with chances to win in two acting categories, Costume Design and Make-up and Hairstyling. If Joker and The Favourite have proven anything in the last few years then it is that movies that overperform in terms of nominations are getting a directing nod even if their director felt like a rather shaky contender.

    Edit: In fact, as I just checked, there hasn’t been a single instance of a director of a film with two-digit nominations not getting into the line-up in the 2000s. That just doesn’t happen. Wolfe is definitely not as locked as Zhao or Fincher but I’d consider him to be 3rd right now.

    FYC:

    Lead Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

    Supporting Actress: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

    Supporting Actor: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

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    fyras19
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    #1203882037

    Why is George C. Wolfe that low on the Director predictions? Yes, movies that are based on a play don’t tend to get directing nominations but the film will be nominated across the board (probably either the 2nd or 3rd most nominated movie of the night depending on News of the World’s quality, either way probably 10+ nominations) with chances to win in two acting categories, Costume Design and Make-up and Hairstyling. If Joker and The Favourite have proven anything in the last few years then it is that movies that overperform in terms of nominations are getting a directing nod even if their director felt like a rather shaky contender. Edit: In fact, as I just checked, there hasn’t been a single instance of a director of a film with two-digit nominations not getting into the line-up in the 2000s. That just doesn’t happen. Wolfe is definitely not as locked as Zhao or Fincher but I’d consider him to be 3rd right now.

    For a film so loved by critics, his direction doesn’t seem to be one the directing branch usually goes for.

    I’d say Ma rainey will get in for picture, lead actor, lead actress, adapted screenplay, costume design, makeup and hairstyling, probably production design, and maybe editing, sound and direction. It could get 10+ nominations, but it’s not probable the way you make it to be.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203882375

    For perspective, the last time a film with double-digit nominations missed for directing was The Color Purple. Driving Miss Daisy and Apollo 13 also missed with nine nods each.

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    Bassett
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    #1203882382

    For perspective, the last time a film with double-digit nominations missed for directing was The Color Purple. Driving Miss Daisy and Apollo 13 also missed with nine nods each.

    And all of these were heavily predicted to get the Directing nom since Color Purple and Apollo 13 won DGA and DMD won BP

    I could see Ma Rainey overperforming and getting in Director with a 10+ nominations tally, but 7-8 noms without Director seems like a more reasonable prediction for now

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis, Frances McDormand
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supporting Actor - Colman Domingo, Glynn Turman
    Best Picture - Nomadland
    Best Director - Chloé Zhao
    SAG Ensemble - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Best Cinematography - Nomadland

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    Sean C
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    #1203882657

    Having just seen Mank (I fortunately live in one of the parts of North America where you can still safely go to the theatre), my immediate award prospects reaction: elegantly made, will get a lot of nominations, but this does not immediately strike me as a film that will inspire the necessary passion to actually win the big prizes.

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    Cordelia
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    #1203882734

    I actually think Ma Rainey will get a bigger push from Netflix. It overperformed with critics and is actually likely to be a crowd pleaser unlike Mank.

    I called a possibility of Ma Rainey being the big Netflix film. I certainly think that it and Mank are the Top 2, and Ma Rainey isn’t #2.

    Mank will do better in technical categories I’d imagine, and is more of a Director threat, but Ma Rainey will do better in performance categories, and will do better in a preferential ballot for Best Picture due to passion.

     

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    wolfali
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    #1203883010

    I’m saying this right now but in this particular year on a ranked ballot The Prom could very well WIN Best Picture. Even if Meryl loses the Comedy Globe and Oscar nomination to Mulligan.

    I’m not kidding. An acclaimed musical about Broadway and homophobia in midwestern America in this particularly dark year could win over the darker films this year like Nomadland (which I probably will end up rooting for because I always do when it comes to films starring Frances McDormand even if I’m not rooting for her to win lol).

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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