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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 2)

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    wolfali
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    I just noticed that in recent history there’s always one director at least for a film that don’t get any acting nominations, what are you guys predicting for this year?

    I did not know that.

    I guess the strongest bet is Paul Greengrass imo (or Spike Lee but I think Lindo will get nominated).

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    OccultCherry
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    I don’t see the Academy giving Zhao three Oscars and Fincher zero unless they’re spiteful.

    What kind of logic is this? It doesn’t make them spiteful, it just means they prefer one film and its direction over the other. The blind stanning here is laughable.

    FYC:

    Picture: Nomadland
    Director: Chloe Zhao
    Leading Actress: Frances McDormand
    Leading Actor: Anthony Hopkins
    Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-jung
    Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Adapted Screenplay: The Father
    Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman

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    John Berchmans
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    One last point, we don’t know how Nomadland will play with audiences, TIFF audience award this year doesn’t mean the same as the last couple of years. Based on everything I heard about it, I don’t think the general audiences will love it. Same for Mank though. But let’s remember that AMPAS doesn’t always align with what general audiences think and both of these films remain the frontrunners so far.

    Tbf the general audience doesn’t really exist this year. Only a select few films like Chicago 7 and Judas and the Black Messiah (and of course Soul but that has a built-in audience) are going to be watched at all by general audiences. The other films will just be watched by Oscar enthusiasts and voters.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    Gabe Guarin
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    What kind of logic is this? It doesn’t make them spiteful, it just means they prefer one film and its direction over the other. The blind stanning here is laughable.

    These same people snubbed Selma because the cast wore “I Can’t Breathe” shirts to the premiere. They also voted Green Book as Best Picture in part specifically to spite those telling them not to.

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    John Berchmans
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    These same people snubbed Selma because the cast wore “I Can’t Breathe” shirts to the premiere.

    TIL “I Can’t Breathe” didn’t originate from George Floyd.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    SN
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    I did not know that.

    I guess the strongest bet is Paul Greengrass imo (or Spike Lee but I think Lindo will get nominated).

    I think the little girl is going to be nominated.

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    gorman
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    I’ve had this nagging feeling for weeks that Mank may play out like The Irishman, with lots of nominations but very few wins. I don’t know why, but as of yet its missing that gold dust that sweeps awards, yet is almost impossible to name. Both Zhao and Fincher are great directors, who both deserve to win the best director Oscars, but something tells me Mank will flop with wins.

    I think Mank will have a much bigger claim in the below the line categories than The Irishman did, both because they’re more emphasised and because of a lack of major competition. I think it’s very strong for Cinematography, Editing, Costumes, Hair Make-up and Production Design at least, and it has a good shot at Score and Sound too. The Irishman couldn’t be considered a leader in any of those races, but I struggle to think of a ton of competition in all of those yet this year.

    I agree above the line though – it could get 5/6 noms and no wins there. I think there’s a realistic scenario it goes 2/3 wins out of 13/14 noms, but I struggle to see it getting nothing.

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    John Berchmans
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    I think it’s very strong for Cinematography, Editing, Costumes, Hair Make-up and Production Design at least, and it has a good shot at Score and Sound too.

    I’d say Score, Sound, Cinematography, and Production Design are all but locked based on the initial reactions. I think Chicago 7 will win Editing though: it’s super well edited but also very flashy and the type of film they like to reward.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    gorman
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    I’d say Score, Sound, Cinematography, and Production Design are all but locked based on the initial reactions. I think Chicago 7 will win Editing though: it’s super well edited but also very flashy and the type of film they like to reward.

    Quite possible yeah. I had some issues with Chicago 7’s editing at the beginning of the movie during some choppy court room exchanges but it really does come into its own at times in later parts. And as we know from a couple of years ago, the Academy doesn’t mind choppily edited dialogue. I give Mank a good chance though because of Fincher’s recent success in editing and because it seems like the kind of sprawling piece that will be praised for its editing if they pull it off in an effective way.

    Trying to think if anything else has a shot… I think I recall some praising Nomadland, but I don’t see it winning.  If Judas and the Black Messiah is as well edited as its trailer that could factor into the race. News of the World and Ma Rainey too perhaps. So yeah, for now I’d agree – Mank v Chicago 7 there.

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    DaKardii
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    END OF WEEK 8 PREDICTIONS

    Best Picture

    1. Nomadland
    2. One Night in Miami
    3. The Trial of the Chicago 7
    4. Mank
    5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    6. Da 5 Bloods
    7. The Father
    8. Hillbilly Elegy
    9. News of the World
    10. Minari

    BEST DIRECTOR

    1. Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
    2. David Fincher (Mank)
    3. Regina King (One Night in Miami)
    4. Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
    5. Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods)
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    DCurrie
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    I think the little girl is going to be nominated.

    So do I…

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    Rishabh Chaturvedi
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    I just noticed that in recent history there’s always one director at least for a film that don’t get any acting nominations, what are you guys predicting for this year?

    Perhaps Lee Isaac Chung for Minari? I have a strange feeling it might just make it in for Best Picture, Director and Original Screenplay without any acting noms.

    Paul Greengrass could be another option, but Helena Zengel might make the cut in Supporting Actress.

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    Hayden
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    Ever since Wes dropped I’ve only had four slots for Best Director, and I’m thinking it might even go down to three if I remove Sorkin, but I don’t know who to replace him with, let alone the empty spot. I think Zeller could fill it, but I have to see the film first. I haven’t heard a whole bunch of praise for his direction…

    George C. Wolfe or Lee Isaac Chung could be dark horses, and I don’t see them picking Kaufman, but at the end of the day this is clearly a two-person race between Fincher and Zhao, almost in the same sense as Bong v Mendes last year or Nolan v Del Toro in 2017, Iñárritu v Miller, Iñárritu v Linklater, etc… and in all of those cases, best director went to the best picture winner. It’s going to be a fight.

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