Home Forums Movies Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 5)

Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 5)

CREATE A NEW TOPIC
CREATE A NEW POLL
Viewing 15 posts - 211 through 225 (of 473 total)
Created
1 year ago
Last Reply
1 year ago
472
replies
53395
views
67
users
wolfali
64
SN
45
John Berchmans
33
  • Profile picture
    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203957092

    I understand people think that we’re overestimating the impact lukewarm reviews will have on Mank but it’s not only lukewarm reviews that are hurting it. According to Anne Thompson and Pete Hammond the film has received a divisive response from Academy members. Even fans of Fincher have been left polarised.

    It also is a film whose buzz seems to have been dying out over the holiday season (something that has happened to a lot of contenders including POAW (although that one at least hasn’t been released yet so has a chance at a resurgence), Chicago 7 and more). It can easily miss BAFTA and the Globes in two months time (especially considering the rate The Father, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal and others have been rising in buzz as it has been falling). And I say this as someone who has it for 8 nominations currently in my personal awards.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

    Profile picture
    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203957098

    Why shouldn’t Luca go through the torture of seeing it just like the rest of us?

    Just because you haven’t seen a film it doesn’t mean you have to be taunted or that you can’t make predictions. I am predicting Nomadland (a film I haven’t seen) to win Best Picture. I haven’t seen Sound of Metal yet but I think Riz Ahmed is likelier than Gary Oldman (in a film I have seen) for a nomination.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

    Profile picture
    Riley Chow
    Joined:
    Oct 11th, 2010
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203957102

    I am being taken to task, so I will explain myself. First of all, not watching the contenders can indeed make you a better predictor. This gets at how quality figures into our discussions relatively rarely, considering that we are debating predictions for awards that supposedly award quality. These things are subjective and when you are looking at such large voting bodies, it does not make sense to consider individual opinions, hence we reduce trends to base terms and those who make surface judgements often do best in predicting.

    You do also learn things by watching the contenders. Before I watched Promising Young Woman last night, I only had it predicted in Best Actress. From the little that I knew about it, it struck me as another Nightcrawler or I, Tonya—ultimately too edgy for the academy. What I missed in trying to know as little about the movie as possible and what I learned in actually watching it is how much of rooting and importance factors this movie has. In terms of general mood and style, it was very much another Nightcrawler and I, Tonya (or Ex Machina, Molly’s Game, Sicario and various other tenth-placers), but those were simply undone by their edginess, without something to compensate.

    Voters, especially women, are going to feel a duty to support Promising Young Woman. This is a movie that holds up better in memory than when it is actually being watched. Admittedly an opinion here, but so much of the movie just goes through the motions of its premise without being inspired beyond that, if that makes sense. But the weighty themes (and original concept) are going to linger. This explains how it has such a relatively low score on Metacritic, yet has been so dominant in the top-ten lists and critic awards. Is it actually that great? Maybe not, but it is memorable and it is important to endorse what the film stands for. It incites a rallying for which it will ultimately prevail. It is probably even safer in Picture with the broader voting than with the idiosyncratic writers.

    So to be as reductive as possible, I was not predicting it because I thought that it was an “edgy” contender. But I have since learned that an “important” contender is what it actually is and that ultimately puts it in the Oscar wheelhouse.

    Profile picture
    H. H.
    Joined:
    Dec 11th, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203957106

    Just because you haven’t seen a film it doesn’t mean you have to be taunted or that you can’t make predictions. I am predicting Nomadland (a film I haven’t seen) to win Best Picture. I haven’t seen Sound of Metal yet but I think Riz Ahmed is likelier than Gary Oldman (in a film I have seen) for a nomination.

    I was joking!!

    Profile picture
    Luca Giliberti
    Joined:
    Jun 23rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203957108

    The notion was that I, as a contributor here, should have already watched this movie, which I understand. But the reality is that not everyone can watch every movie, let alone right away. I did not deem it appropriate to dive into Mank without having seen Citizen Kane. But your point stands, wolfali: One can predict without having seen a movie, which is what we all do here when we fill in our predictions in early August already.

    Profile picture
    H. H.
    Joined:
    Dec 11th, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203957115

    The notion was that I, as a contributor here, should have already watched this movie, which I understand. But the reality is that not everyone can watch every movie, let alone right away. I did not deem it appropriate to dive into Mank without having seen Citizen Kane. But your point stands, wolfali: One can predict without having seen a movie, which is what we all do here when we fill in our predictions in early August already.

    Honestly you’re better off not watching it. I want those two hours of my life back.

    Profile picture
    Joined:
    Jan 1st, 1970
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203957117
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
    Profile picture
    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203957124

    Absolutely agree with what Riley has just said and it is partly why I am on the “Mank is in danger ship”. Whilst I don’t think Mank is anywhere near as bad as some have (I’m neither a fan or a hater) it is a film that truly is so divisive that I think it leaves such a sour taste in voters mouths. It may have a bait premise but its screenplay is pretty divisive in its storytelling approach and attempts at mimicking the scattered style of Citizen Kane. Of course you could argue <i>Promising Young Woman </i>is also a divisive film with polarising thematic aspects (my attempt at still trying to not be spoilery which has been a hard task since GFF haha!) but it is also a film that inspires passion and has a rooting factor. Of course we can have our own qualitative opinions around Mank but what passion or rooting factor does it have?

    It’s also why I think Promsiing Young Woman is a lock for a Screenplay nomination regardless of Mulligan’s chances and regardless of the film’s chances in Picture. It’s also why I currently am predicting a nomination for <i>I’m Thinking of Ending Things </i>in Adapted Screenplay (and a News of the World snub). In these screenplay categories in particular (in a normal year) you either need to have passion and/or be a big juggernaut in Picture. Look at films like Knives Out and First Reformed making it in over Ford vs Ferrari and Bohemian Rhapsody (although that’s not the only reason the latter two were snubbed) in Screenplay. I won’t go into exactly how this is executed but Promising Young Woman is not the Psycho/Gone Girl film it is touted to be on here. It’s a bold film about a woman who is seeking justice and revenge after her friend’s life was turned upside down when she was raped. You ROOT for Cassie Thomas throughout this film and not only does the script have acclaim but it has both passion and buzz. It was a big story of one of the screenplay blacklist years and Promising Young Woman is one of the only film’s this year whose bold storytelling and writing is a key aspect of its buzz.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

    Profile picture
    Rachel615
    Joined:
    Sep 20th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203957142

    Promising Young Woman will not get nominated for best picture unless the gp pushes it, and so far they seem to not care despite the massive payola…. 

    Sincere questions: What does GP stand for? General public? And if so, why would the general public care about the alleged “massive payola?”

    Profile picture
    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203957146

    I can’t wait for the televised and industry nominations. Some folks here will finally wake up to reality (or not).

    Profile picture
    estrelas
    Joined:
    Jul 25th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203957155

    Sincere questions: What does GP stand for? General public? And if so, why would the general public care about the alleged “massive payola?”

    GP means General Public, yes.

    Profile picture
    Joined:
    Jan 1st, 1970
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203957160
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
    Profile picture
    Brae
    Joined:
    Aug 3rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203957172

    I think that film and film award prediction communities in particular are as diverse a group of people as you can really find that are all devoted to the same thing, and as a result we’re all going to approach the way that we predict entirely differently.

    Some people feel that they are better at predicting when they haven’t seen anything and would prefer to look at industry trends and patterns to make an informed decision. Other people feel that they need to see the films and marry some gut instincts that they get from the performances with their knowledge of the Oscars and how each precursor works. I don’t think it does anything meaningful to argue and belittle each other over how we choose to predict. I think there’s a lot of valid points from each approach and instead of tearing each other down about that I think it’s more valuable to just try to listen and take in things from the people that don’t think like you do.

    I know personally I lean into intuition more than logistics, but that’s why I’m always interested in reading someone like Luca’s for example thoughts on the race because I am weaker on that side of thought and I respect and appreciate a perspective that I’m not always quick to consider. It’s why I get so frustrated when people try to shut down discussions on this site, because I know that I do much better when I’m able to work through a hypothetical or question with people who are all viewing it in entirely different ways.

    More chaotic than a soderbergh Oscars

    Profile picture
    estrelas
    Joined:
    Jul 25th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203957180

    Because the massive payola is supposed to provoke an interest? Which isn’t working as people seem to not care like they were supposed to. Okay some people here and there talk about it but it’s not really peaking up. There is not such thing as a serious discussion regarding PYW’s themes in the media or anywhere, even the HFPA move didn’t provoke that much of a reaction, Minari’s outshadowed with ease. The real tea is PYW is not a great film, that’s why it has okay-ish reviews. The ending actually serves as its added value, remove it and the film is pretty basic despite the importance of its theme, in fact the film is still basic regardless of its importance. It only works because the ending shocks, otherwise Carey and the Screenplay wouldn’t be so far in the awards conversation.

    Focus is putting a massive payola into the campaign, second there’s plenty of articles regarding PYW themes.

    Profile picture
    Joined:
    Jan 1st, 1970
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203957183
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
    Why are you reporting this post? (optional):
    Not now
Viewing 15 posts - 211 through 225 (of 473 total)

The topic ‘Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 5)’ is closed to new replies.

Similar Topics
tiermak... - May 21, 2022
Movies
Babylonian - May 20, 2022
Movies
Chris B... - May 19, 2022
Movies