Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 5)

[Dan Backslide Joined: Apr 24th, 2016 Topics: 45 Posts: 3250 View Predictions]

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John Berchmans wrote:

Maybe this is just me, but it feels like News of the World has absolutely zero buzz. It seems to have just come and gone without any fanfare. I too think it will do well below-the-line (Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Sound all seem very likely), but I don’t see it getting anything above-the-line.

Well it’s certainly not helped by that crappy Netflix deal. Going to the theatre is so inconvenient at this time, it just feels easier to wait for streaming, which they should’ve just released it on everywhere immediately.

[estrelas Joined: Jul 25th, 2018 Topics: 1 Posts: 6824 View Predictions]

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SN wrote:

Since the preferential ballot started, there’s at least one film nominated for Picture/Director and at least four technical categories:

2009 – The Hurt Locker, Avatar
2010 – The King’s Speech, True Grit
2011 – The Artist, Hugo
2012 – Life of Pi, Lincoln
2013 – Gravity
2014 – The Grand Budapest Hotel
2015 – The Revenant, Mad Max: Fury Road
2016 – La La Land, Arrival
2017 – The Shape of Water, Dunkirk
2018 – Roma, The Favourite
2019 – Joker, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Irishman

And even before the prefential ballot, that was also the case almost every year.

So if you’re not predicting Mank, News of the World or Ma Rainey in Directing, you should reconsider that.

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is not getting nominated for Directing. It’s a play adaptation and it was literally the most criticized aspect of the movie.

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 246 Posts: 37645 View Predictions]

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I know IMDb has a younger membership but the fact that within three days of its release News of the World has 200 and something votes and Promising Young Woman has 1,200 something (an increasingly of around 400 from before its general release) tells me which one garnered more buzz this weekend with its audience.

FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

[SN Joined: Dec 7th, 2014 Topics: 4 Posts: 3535 View Predictions]

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estrelas wrote:

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is not getting nominated for Directing. It’s a play adaptation and it was literally the most criticized aspect of the movie.

I know. I also don’t expect it to have the technical noms. I think it’ll have only Production Design, Costumes and Makeup as below the line noms.

But there’s indeed an outside chance it gets Directing, Editing and Cinematography, even if undeserved. That’s why I mentioned it.

[SN Joined: Dec 7th, 2014 Topics: 4 Posts: 3535 View Predictions]

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wolfali wrote:

I know IMDb has a younger membership but the fact that within three days of its release News of the World has 200 and something votes and Promising Young Woman has 1,200 something tells me which one garnered more buzz this weekend with its audience.

Promising Young Woman is getting voted on IMDb since January.

[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 1 Posts: 1417 View Predictions]

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This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.

[estrelas Joined: Jul 25th, 2018 Topics: 1 Posts: 6824 View Predictions]

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SN wrote:

Promising Young Woman is getting voted on IMDb since January.

Mostly trolls. That movie got a huge number of 1 votes, when it wasn’t even released yet. That’s why it only has a 7.0 atm. But it has been increasing every day.

[Kafka_Gyllenhaal Joined: Nov 13th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 408 View Predictions]

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Well, here’s my “end-of-year” predictions (first 6 in BP are my locks):

Picture:

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
4. Soul
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7
6. The Father
7. One Night in Miami…
8. Minari
9. Promising Young Woman
10. Sound of Metal
11. Judas and the Black Messiah
12. News of the World
13. Da 5 Bloods
14. The United States vs. Billie Holliday
15. Ammonite

Director:

1. Chloé Zhao
2. David Fincher
3. Regina King
4. Aaron Sorkin
5. Lee Isaac Chung
6. George C. Wolfe
7. Spike Lee
8. Paul Greengrass
9. Florian Zeller
10. Emerald Fennell

My Hopes for Underdog Contenders:

Picture: Another Round

Director: Kelly Reichardt

FYC: Minari for Everything

[David Joined: Aug 18th, 2018 Topics: 4 Posts: 694 View Predictions]

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Idk if someone already posted this, but here’s another screener reaction for ‘Judas and the Black Messiah’!!! Seems like it lives up to the hype.

https://twitter.com/jamesmoran/status/1343499650532306944?s=21

“Got to see Judas and the Black Messiah at an online screening last night with Q&A. Mesmerising, horrifying, sadly still very timely. Had no idea of the full details. An inspiring, beautiful piece of work, this should get a TON of awards next year. Performances are *stunning*.”

[DaKardii Joined: Jan 12th, 2018 Topics: 34 Posts: 682 View Predictions]

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END OF WEEK 16 PREDICTIONS

1) Nomadland
2) The Trial of the Chicago 7
3) One Night in Miami
4) News of the World
5) Mank
6) Minari
7) Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
8) The Father
9) Da 5 Bloods
10) Soul

 

1) Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
2) David Fincher (Mank)
3) Regina King (One Night in Miami)
4) Paul Greengrass (News of the World)
5) Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

[Victor Joined: Jun 18th, 2020 Topics: 20 Posts: 9381 View Predictions]

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Will they speed up the VOD releases of Nomadland, The Father and the other late contenders?
For the looks of it I’ll only be able to see them on oscar night

FYC:
The HBO darlings everywhere (The Last of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, Perry Mason, Somebody Somewhere, White House Plumbers, Love & Death);
The Apple gang (Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, Shrinking, Ted Lasso, Black Bird);
Poker Face, The Great, The Bear, Evil (especially Katja Herbers) and The Good Fight.

Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!

[JackO Joined: Jun 2nd, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 1051 View Predictions]

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estrelas wrote:

Mostly trolls. That movie got a huge number of 1 votes, when it wasn’t even released yet. That’s why it only has a 7.0 atm. But it has been increasing every day.

So its been getting votes from Janaury, has dedicated spammers to it, and yet…

HillBilly Elegy – 6.7 – 17k votes
Disappointing Young FLop – 7 – 1,300 votes

That’s what buzz is now? lol

[Hoster1 Joined: Aug 8th, 2016 Topics: 3 Posts: 1560 View Predictions]

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Ma Rainey getting nominated in Director, would be the worst nomination in at least a decade.

[Dan Backslide Joined: Apr 24th, 2016 Topics: 45 Posts: 3250 View Predictions]

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Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody say hi.

I don’t know if there’s ever been a worse win or nomination than Bohemian Rhapsody for Editing.

[estrelas Joined: Jul 25th, 2018 Topics: 1 Posts: 6824 View Predictions]

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JackO wrote:

So its been getting votes from Janaury, has dedicated spammers to it, and yet… HillBilly Elegy – 6.7 – 17k votes Disappointing Young FLop – 7 – 1,300 votes That’s what buzz is now? lol

First of all, that movie had like a bunch of 1 votes when it wasn’t even out. I think we all know why. Second of all, the movie went up to a 7 in less than 3 days. It had a 5,4 on Christmas day.

And since you’re trying to be a smart ass, PYW currently has 93% (4.49/5) audience score on RT and 4.0/5 on Letterbox.

The sooner you accept HE is dead, the better. Your precious Amy is not going anywhere.