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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 5)

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    estrelas
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    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1203966505

    The CC’s give Best Picture to whoever wins at the Globes. They don’t care what the actual Critic’s Choice is. That’s why OUATiH beat Parasite last year.

    That’s not true. The Shape of Water literally won over Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Roma won over Green Book. Nomadland is eating with critics, while TTOC7 is literally flopping with them. And regarding OUATIH, there was a certain hope/narrative to finally give BP to Tarantino.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203966507

    They gave BP to Roma, Spotlight, The Shape of Water, The Hurt Locker etc, none of which won the Globe

    Well Roma was ineligible for the Drama Globe because it’s a Foreign Film. ☠ If it was eligible it probably would have won Drama. It did win Foreign Film at the Globes though, so I’d say the CC’s were just riding the bandwagon there since it was the frontrunner at that point.

    You’re right about the others though. Still, the CC’s reputation as bootlickers stands firm and I think they’ll continue that this year.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203966509

    Worst case scenario they’ll just tie Nomadland and TToTc7 because why the hell not.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1203966512

    What people really underestimate about Sound of Metal  (other than the fact Amazon are campaigning tf out of it and it looks like their main campaign priprity right now) is that it is a film that several disability groups have endorsed for its depiction of deafness. Something that is quite rare and unprecedented. The Oscars love to award films about people with disabilities and with this one as a result of its endorsements (something Amazon is making known) gives it a sense of urgency for recognition. I’m not saying it’s going to win Best Picture but I see no reason for one to not consider it a top 5 contender in Picture or to consider Ahmed more than Oldman (whose buzz seems to be dying) or Stanfield (who doesn’t seem to have much buzz).

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    estrelas
    Joined:
    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1203966520

    Worst case scenario they’ll just tie Nomadland and TToTc7 because why the hell not.

    Again, you’re reading too much into into their basicness. BP is one of the places where they rarely go with something they didn’t like that much. Nomadland is safely winning BP there. Aaron Sorkin, on the hand, will most likely win Screenplay. I also think it will probably win ensemble.

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    wolfali
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    #1203966525

    Sorkin will win the Globe but Chicago 7 will lose Screenplay to one of Promising Young Woman or Minari at the Oscars.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    John Berchmans
    Joined:
    Jan 22nd, 2018
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    #1203966527

    Sorkin will win the Globe but Chicago 7 will lose Screenplay to one of Promising Young Woman or Minari at the Oscars.

    Or Judas. That’s my prediction at the moment, especially after today’s events.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    Bassett
    Joined:
    Dec 21st, 2016
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    #1203966531

    We all like to talk about the BAFTA curse but the Drama Picture Globe has been even worse at predicting the Best Picture winner this past decade outside of 12 Years A Slave and Moonlight (both top 5 most acclaimed movies of the decade)

    Chicago 7 can have that one. Also sounds like a curse to me

    edit : Argo too, still bad. HFPA is very on beat when it comes to acting category but the Picture race is another story

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    H. H.
    Joined:
    Dec 11th, 2017
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    #1203966533

    I’m not saying it’s going to win Best Picture but I see no reason for one to not consider it a top 5 contender in Picture or to consider Ahmed more than Oldman (whose buzz seems to be dying) or Stanfield (who doesn’t seem to have much buzz).

    Lmao both Yeun and Ben Adir are ahead of him. Not a chance.

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    wolfali
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    #1203966536

    Or Judas. That’s my prediction at the moment, especially after today’s events.

    Judas to me is in a precarious position (in wins) when it comes to non Kaluuya categories because I think it will be hurt buzz wise by a late release date. Whilst I think it will get lots of nominations (it has no chance at a Picture win) the film going into its release date only has win buzz for Kaluuya. It could very well be a film that would be deserving of a screenplay win but I don’t think it will generate buzz for its script (if its deserving) until its embargo lifts. And in a race where Soul, Promising Young Woman and Minari are building more and more buzz for their screenplays (and the latter have been doing so for almost the space of a year) that puts it at a disadvantage.

    If it’s screenplay does get nomination buzz it is 100% officially sealing the coffin on Mank’s screenplay chances.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1203966546

    Judas to me is in a precarious position (in wins) when it comes to non Kaluuya categories because I think it will be hurt buzz wise by a late release date. Whilst I think it will get lots of nominations (it has no chance at a Picture win) the film going into its release date only has win buzz for Kaluuya. It could very well be a film that would be deserving of a screenplay win but I don’t think it will generate buzz for its script (if its deserving) until its embargo lifts. And in a race where Soul, Promising Young Woman and Minari are building more and more buzz for their screenplays (and the latter have been doing so for almost the space of a year) that puts it at a disadvantage.

    If it’s screenplay does get nomination buzz it is 100% officially sealing the coffin on Mank’s screenplay chances.

    It’s already getting screened and the release date is not that late. It’s the equivalent of mid December. To be honest, it’ll have a wide release before Nomadland. If it is really that good, it’ll actually benefit from being freshier in voters minds.

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    wolfali
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    #1203966548

    It’s already getting screened and the release date is not that late. It’s the equivalent of mid December. To be honest, it’ll have a wide release before Nomadland. If it is really that good, it’ll actually benefit from being freshier in voters minds.

    Its release isn’t the problem the problem is that it doesn’t currently have buzz for a screenplay potential brewing (which Minari, Promising Young Woman and Soul do). And imo it needs to have that huzz brewing now (or soon-ish) for it to be win competitive in screenplay.

    Nomadland at least has been screening since September.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
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    Posts:
    #1203966566

    Its release isn’t the problem the problem is that it doesn’t currently have buzz for a screenplay potential brewing (which Minari, Promising Young Woman and Soul do). And imo it needs to have that huzz brewing now (or soon-ish) for it to be win competitive in screenplay.

    Nomadland at least has been screening since September.

    We’re still three months before the nominations day and four months before the ceremony. The review embargo will be over yet this month, around two months before the nominations morning. That’s enough time to generate buzz in case it’s really that good.

    You say like non festival December films never won Oscars before.

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    nevkm
    Joined:
    Jan 3rd, 2018
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    #1203966568

    What people really underestimate about Sound of Metal (other than the fact Amazon are campaigning tf out of it and it looks like their main campaign priprity right now) is that it is a film that several disability groups have endorsed for its depiction of deafness. Something that is quite rare and unprecedented. The Oscars love to award films about people with disabilities and with this one as a result of its endorsements (something Amazon is making known) gives it a sense of urgency for recognition. I’m not saying it’s going to win Best Picture but I see no reason for one to not consider it a top 5 contender in Picture or to consider Ahmed more than Oldman (whose buzz seems to be dying) or Stanfield (who doesn’t seem to have much buzz).

    It’s so cool and refreshing to see so many deaf actors (Lauren Ridloff, Jeremy Lee Stone, Shaheem Sanchez, Chelsea Lee) be a part of a movie and considering how adamant the Academy has been lately about representation of people with disabilities in Hollywood makes me think that maybe we’re underestimating this movie for a BP nom.

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    Marcus.H
    Joined:
    Oct 21st, 2017
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    #1203966660

    And I’m not talking about neccesarily what happened today I’m saying if voters want to choose a film with a positive message about how to respond to the last four years, the socio-economic alienation and division and rejection that Nomadland is that film. But anyway I should have phrased myself better.

    I’m sorry but how is Nomadland that film? Nomadland is more about Nomads’ life instead of giving any political or “positive message.” That’s actually more suitable for Chicago 7.

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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