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With each passing day, I’m feeling there is going to be a snub of one or more between Mank, News of the World and One Night in Miami, in favor of Sound of Metal, Promising Young Woman or Judas and the Black Messiah.
Personally, Mank is the film that just feels lackluster to me that I could see really being left off in the end.
Oh my god Nomandland. Magnificent. I lost count of the number of times I cried. Chloé Zhao is immense; her talent to turn true stories into cinematic experiences is immeasurable, as is her ability to find soul and humanity in the most trivial scenes and situations.
Frances McDormand gives a beautiful and unforgettable performance, my favorite of everything I’ve seen from her so far
I lost my father a year ago so the final dedication really moved me, and I’m sure it’s going to do the same to everyone who has lost someone this year cause the virus
I can not imagine a world where Chloé Zhao doesn’t win Director.
On the other hand, I’m still not sure about Picture. It’s such a “nothing really happens” movie, such an arthouse movie. Sure, Moonlight won, but that was such a baity history as well. The real appeal of Nomadland lies on it’s strong and moving component about the ones who are not among us anymore, and I think that will be too hard to ignore this year
So yeah, the prediction is that I’m not sure haha
The only reason I haven’t taken Mank out of my predicated Picture lineup is because it’s about Citizen Kane. If it wasn’t about the writer of Citizen Kane I would have dropped it a long time ago.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
Predictions
1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Judas and the Black Messiah
4. Mank
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
6. One Night in Miami
7. The Father
8. Promising Young Woman
9. Minari
10. The United States vs. Billie HolidayDirector
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
2. David Fincher, Mank
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
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6. Regina King, One Night in Miami
7. Florian Zeller, The Father
8. Lee Daniels, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
10. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
11. Spike Lee, Da 5 BloodsLowkey want Promising Young Woman to win Picture just so there will be another ten years of an “Oscar-less” Margot Robbie debate whenever “Academy Award winner” appears before her name in future trailers.
The only reason I haven’t taken Mank out of my predicated Picture lineup is because it’s about Citizen Kane. If it wasn’t about the writer of Citizen Kane I would have dropped it a long time ago.
I agree. That’s the reason I haven’t committed to removing yet either. I’m a massive fan of the old Hollywood classics and Mank was my most highly anticipated film of the year. I found it to be technically marvelous, but emotionally distant and overall disappointing. I’m wondering if that perspective might be prevelant among the voting body too. I may make a bold prediction decision in the 11th hour and then regret it…
Malcolm and Marie screening for SAG on Jan 8th
I don’t think it can be jinxed at this point so I’m going to say it: we are going to have the most diverse set of nominees ever, aren’t we? Not just for BD but also each acting category looks poised to be very diverse–other than Supporting Actress perhaps. I’m not following the other races intently so I don’t know the demographics of those who stand a chance in Editing, for example, but what a year!
watch I May Destroy You
I’m starting to think that Mank will pull a Foxcatcher and miss picture, but get in for Director. There seems to be a lot of respect for what Fincher did, but not really passion for the film itself.
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.Mank is so incredibly safe for Best Picture. There is literally no chance that it misses the nomination. It has no chance of winning, of course, but Foxcatcher this isn’t.
For Your Consideration:
The Banshees of Inisherin in ALL categories, including:
- Best Picture
- Best Director
- Best Actor (Colin Farrell)
- Best Supporting Actor (Brendan Gleeson)
- Best Supporting Actor (Barry Keoghan)
- Best Supporting Actress (Kerry Condon)
- Best Supporting Actress (Sheila Flitton)
- Best Original ScreenplayLetterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges
Mank is so incredibly safe for Best Picture. There is literally no chance that it misses the nomination. It has no chance of winning, of course, but Foxcatcher this isn’t.
Inclined to agree. Strikes me as more of an Irishman type situation in that the majority expected it to be firmly at the head of the race and it is now more likely to languish as a solid 4th-6th placer. I think it’ll prove too big/ visible/ heavily-campaigned to miss out completely and there is a lot of appeal there for people in the industry in my opinion. I think there’s a chance it misses out, but it’s very slim.
With that said, my current line-up prediction is essentially this:
Predictions 1. Nomadland 2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 3. Judas and the Black Messiah 4. Mank 5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 6. One Night in Miami 7. Promising Young Woman 8. Minari 9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday 10. News of the World
I think Soul or Da 5 Bloods could sneak in ahead of two of those 7-10 but this seems very solid. I would have Judas 2nd and by far Nomadland’s closest competition were it not for the WB debacle. If that doesn’t have as much backlash as it seems at the minute, then I think that will push for the prize. It’s timely in a similar way to Chicago 7, but it’s tone seems to suit the current climate far better and I think it’ll resonate with the moment whilst Chicago 7 peters out a little.
For director I quite like:
1. Chloe Zhao
2. David Fincher
3. Shaka King
4. Emerald Fennell
5. Thomas Vinterberg
I think Another Round might do pretty well. Seems like a big crowd pleaser and lots will be watching it as it’s probably clear in the lead for International Feature. Also think Mads might get in for Actor. Sorkin and Zeller are probably safer bets though.
Mank is so incredibly safe for Best Picture. There is literally no chance that it misses the nomination. It has no chance of winning, of course, but Foxcatcher this isn’t.
I know Mank is disappointing a bit so far, but I still can’t see it being snubbed in Picture and Director. As I mentioned before here, every year there’s at least one Picture/Director nominee with plenty of technical nominations. For now, seems like Mank is positioned to be that film this year. I think it’s more an Irishman situation than a First Man situation. First Man actually did quite well with the critics awards.
Daniel looks like a *WINNING* performance.
Kaluuya should win the Oscar just for that trailer alone lol.
I made this joke before but who would have known that being a guest star on Doctor Who could inadvertently lead you to become a frontrunner to win an Oscar more than a decade later.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
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