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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 5)

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    gabspss
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    #1203953851

    Even the Critics Associations are nominating Aaron Sorkin and y’all still underestimating him.

    It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!

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    estrelas
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    #1203953858

    Even the Critics Associations are nominating Aaron Sorkin and y’all still underestimating him.

    He literally seems like that Director precursors would nominate but then gets snubbed nomination morning. I just don’t see the directors branch going for him.

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1203953905

    Just watched Nomadland. Deserves Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and even Best Actress for Frances McDormand. Must’ve been tremendously difficult to figure out the right way to adapt the source material.

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1203954019

    As for Mank, it was technically masterful but oddly distant, and I’m not sure it has the passion to win anything above the line besides maybe Seyfried (although I have Colman winning at the moment), not to mention conservative deflective members of the Academy will absolutely be offended by its scathing critique of Hollywood.

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1203954108

    The conservative members of the Academy will certainly take offense and it’s a bit too “white-male-centric” for the more liberal members of the Academy. I just don’t see it appealing to them in any sort of way. I’m really beginning to predict a massive underperformance.

    I just took Fincher out of my top 5, I think it’s only getting in due to there being 10 slots, but even then it could miss. What I think Mank was missing were the big standout moments that you typically remember from these sorts of movies.

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    Kafka_Gyllenhaal
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    #1203954112

    On the topic of what Nomadland/The Father/Minari will do if theaters are forced to shut down in February, I think it’s much more likely that they would just release exclusively on streaming than delay and kill all of their Oscar buzz. A24 has a partnership with Apple so Minari would probably go to Apple TV+. I’m assuming Nomadland and The Father would be PVOD (maybe Nomadland goes to Hulu?).

    Well good thing I’ve already seen Minari. I don’t have Apple TV+ and don’t plan to get it anytime soon.

    FYC: Minari for Everything

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    Kafka_Gyllenhaal
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    #1203954123

    I just took Fincher out of my top 5, I think it’s only getting in due to there being 10 slots, but even then it could miss. What I think Mank was missing were the big standout moments that you typically remember from these sorts of movies.

    I think his being David Fincher will help him stay in the five nominees come March. Although I’m probably going to take Regina King out at my next predictions update. Sorkin seems safe to me which I was not expecting. I also have Lee Isaac Chung since I don’t see Greengrass getting in but someone like Shaka King or Emerald Fennell could replace him in my predictions soon.
    Still Zhao’s to lose.

    FYC: Minari for Everything

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    Kafka_Gyllenhaal
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    #1203954125

    Watched Nomadland and if this wins BP, that’s because of the weak competition, so external factors but I wouldn’t even bet on it. She did a great job in the editing room, I guess she has to win this because I kinda don’t see her winning BD.

    Really kicking myself in the shin for forgoing the couple of opportunities I’ve had to see Nomadland. Although one was a drive-in which was pretty far away. And the other one was the Lincoln virtual run which sold out in like two picoseconds.

    FYC: Minari for Everything

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    Marcus.H
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    #1203954165

    1. Fincher
    2. Zhao
    3. Lee
    4. Zeller
    5. Isaac Chung

    You must haven’t seen Mank.

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203954231

    not to mention conservative deflective members of the Academy will absolutely be offended by its scathing critique of Hollywood.

    This is the main reason why I think it will underperform above-the-line.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203954235

    I’ve been thinking recently that my prediction of Mank winning 8 Oscars feels way too bold now that it seems to be underperforming. That beign said, I’m not sure which categories it’s actually vunerable in. There’s no other obvious winner in Editing, Sound, or Score; Cinematography could go to Nomadland but Mank’s is so baity with the black and white; and Ma Rainey could take one of Production Design, Costume Design, or Makeup and Hairstyling but I doubt it takes all three. I guess Seyfried is pretty vunerable in Supporting Actress now, but again I don’t see a good alternative to her there (Colman is underperforming even harder than Seyfried is).

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    Dan Backslide
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    #1203954240

    I’ve been thinking recently that my prediction of Mank winning 8 Oscars feels way too bold now that it seems to be underperforming. That beign said, I’m not sure which categories it’s actually vunerable in. There’s no other obvious winner in Editing, Sound, or Score; Cinematography could go to Nomadland but Mank’s is so baity with the black and white; and Ma Rainey could take one of Production Design, Costume Design, or Makeup and Hairstyling but I doubt it takes all three. I guess Seyfried is pretty vunerable in Supporting Actress now, but again I don’t see a good alternative to her there (Colman is underperforming even harder than Seyfried is).

    Well Trial of the Chicago Seven had very flashy editing, not to mention the consistently strong cutting of different characters in the large ensemble during the court scenes, which made sure you were constantly getting all the main characters’ perspectives. I’d say it’s definitely frontrunner right now. Additionally, I’ve started hearing very strong remarks about The Father’s editing as well, so that could take it.

    Even though it’s not currently expected to be a major overall player, the sound design of The Sound of Metal was constantly brought up as one of its best strengths, and it’s also very central to the overall concept of the film, so that looks to have a strong shot.

    Soul had a great soundtrack, and that was a movie with a major emphasis on music, which is always a plus in this category I believe, so I’d put my money on that.

    The branch does love  black and white films, but it doesn’t equal an easy win, and I hear that Nomadland’s cinematography is supposed to be quite stunning. Mank’s was definitely well received, but it feels like Nomadland’s cinematography has been getting more callouts as being truly beautiful looking.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203954255

    Well Trial of the Chicago Seven had very flashy editing, not to mention the consistently strong cutting of different characters in the large ensemble during the court scenes, which made sure you were constantly getting all the main characters’ perspectives. I’d say it’s definitely frontrunner right now. Additionally, I’ve started hearing very strong remarks about The Father’s editing as well, so that could take it. Even though it’s not currently expected to be a major overall player, the sound design of The Sound of Metal was constantly brought up as one of its best strengths, and it’s also very central to the overall concept of the film, so that looks to have a strong shot.

    The thing that’s throwing me on Sound and Editing is that these two have been paired together every year since 2012. And I don’t know which other film besides Mank could do that.

    I do hope Chicago 7 wins Editing though. I’m just not sure if it has enough passion: I feel like even Mank has more passion.

    Also Sound of Metal won’t win Sound. It’s just like A Quiet Place: a film that puts a great emphasis on Sound, but isn’t a Best Picture contender so it has no chance at a win. if there were still two separate Sound categories it would be nominated for Mixing only and miss Editing.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1203954257

    I think his being David Fincher will help him stay in the five nominees come March. Although I’m probably going to take Regina King out at my next predictions update. Sorkin seems safe to me which I was not expecting. I also have Lee Isaac Chung since I don’t see Greengrass getting in but someone like Shaka King or Emerald Fennell could replace him in my predictions soon. Still Zhao’s to lose.

    Fincher didn’t get nominated for Gone Girl but Morten Tyldum did. I don’t think he’s that safe.

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