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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 6)

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    S.N.
    Joined:
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    #1203985683

    I LOVED Sound of Metal, but people are starting to get a bit too hopeful on its chances just because it’s performing well with critics. We’ve seen films like this over perform with the critics awards and then completely flop at the big industrial awards. I mean I literally saw someone mention that Ahmed could surprise in actor and win the whole thing over Boseman and Hopkins which is a bit absurd because I still think he’s not a lock for a nomination and can easily miss similar to Hawke in 2019. It’s pretty clear that Chicago 7 (I don’t like it either) is either 1 or 2 at this point of the race whether we like it or not, and anyone who says otherwise is either not prepared for what’s about to happen or a delusional stan that isn’t willing to accept reality. Ofc SOM deserves to be in the conversation and I would be more than happy if it got in, but I’m being realistic with my predictions and I’m predicting with my head and not my heart…

    Vastly agree.

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    LLLhawks
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    #1203985689

    Wow! One Night in Miami is pretty damn good. Finally!  A  play adaptation that does not feel like I’m just watching a play on TV.

    I just love movies. And awards.

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    wolfali
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    #1203985721

    he’s not a lock for a nomination and can easily miss similar to Hawke in 2019.

    Ethan Hawke was playing an eco-terrorist in a film that was released early that flopped at the box office during a competitive year. <i>Sound of Metal </i>is a commercial hit that was released in peak awards season and is about a drummer losing their hearing. <i>Sound of Metal </i>has been nominated at 11 awards for Picture so far whilst First Reformed only got nominated for around 11 Picture awards during its entire awards run. Equating these two with one another is like equating the awards trajectory of First Cow and <i>Manchester by the Sea</i>.

    but I’m being realistic with my predictions and I’m predicting with my head and not my heart

    And how I am predicting with my heart and not my head? I have already said I loved One Night in Miami and have yet to have seen <i>Sound of Metal</i>. You were part of the people saying Judas and the Black Messiah was winning BP and that Billie Holliday was going to be a big contender because you were rooting for those films. Maybe you need to listen to your own advice before throwing around incessant and baseless accusations of “stanning”.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    OccultCherry
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    #1203985728

    Grace ‘I hate Jessica Chastain’ Randolph reviews 2021 Oscar contenders.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pt1STibN7bI

    FYC:

    Picture: Nomadland
    Director: Chloe Zhao
    Leading Actress: Frances McDormand
    Leading Actor: Anthony Hopkins
    Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-jung
    Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Adapted Screenplay: The Father
    Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman

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    Leo's burner
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    #1203985735

    And how I am predicting with my heart and not my head?

    Bc you’ve already claimed you haven’t seen SOM yet, but for some reason, you have it so high even though most people aren’t even predicting the film to get in and have it lingering from 10-15 right now. It just seems like you want this film to do well which is understandable, but once you watch this film, you will see why people don’t have it so high in their predictions…

    Ethan Hawke was playing an eco-terrorist in a film that was released early that flopped at the box office during a competitive year. <i>Sound of Metal </i>is a commercial hit that was released in peak awards season and is about a drummer losing their hearing. <i>Sound of Metal </i>has been nominated at 11 awards for Picture so far whilst First Reformed only got nominated for around 11 Picture awards during its entire awards run. Equating these two with one another is like equating the awards trajectory of First Cow and <i>Manchester by the Sea</i>.

    I wasn’t comparing the two films… I was comparing the two lead actors and how one of them were doing extremely well with critics but that success didn’t translate over to the televised awards. Ahmed can have the same fate as Hawke and he is by no means a lock a right now. The only two people who are locks in lead are Boseman and Hopkins. Also, you’re making a mistake if you have SOM so high just bc it has 11 picture noms with critics. This film is a acting/sound player that can easily not show up anywhere on nomination morning except for a sound nomination.

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    Lance
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    #1203985737

    I feel that Trial of Chicago 7 is more likely of a win since it is an overall fan favorite. It may not be as well made as Nomadland, but it is a more mainstream film than Nomadland. Nomadland has a chance in Director, Actress and Screenplay to pick up wins. Chicago 7 will probably pick up wins in Picture, Editing, Original Screenplay and possibly long shot Supp. Actor. It feels like Green Book, a more mainstream film that reaches more audiences than like Roma which was more of a critics darling (like Nomadland).

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    wolfali
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    #1203985758

    Bc you’ve already claimed you haven’t seen SOM yet, but for some reason, you have it so high even though most people aren’t even predicting the film to get in and have it lingering from 10-15 right now. It just seems like you want this film to do well which is understandable, but once you watch this film, you will see why people don’t have it so high in their predictions…

    Funny how someone who predicted Widows across the board in 2018 is accusing me of hope dicting and stanning a film (which I haven’t seen) that I genuinely think will do well because of the buzz it’s been getting and because I’m not sitting in my own bubble.

    People like yourself and Jacko attacking other people’s predictions because you disagree with them need to grow up and learn how to be polite. I’ve literally faced accusations of stanning every film apart from Mank and Hillbilly Elegy this season because I am not shitting on everything like most of Gold Derby does. This is a predictions site not “let’s attack everyone because they have different opinions on predictions”.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    JackO
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    #1203985798

    Funny how someone who predicted Widows across the board in 2018 is accusing me of hope dicting and stanning a film (which I haven’t seen) that I genuinely think will do well because of the buzz it’s been getting and because I’m not sitting in my own bubble.

    People like yourself and Jacko attacking other people’s predictions because you disagree with them need to grow up and learn how to be polite. I’ve literally faced accusations of stanning every film apart from Mank and Hillbilly Elegy this season because I am not shitting on everything like most of Gold Derby does. This is a predictions site not “let’s attack everyone because they have different opinions on predictions”.

    says the person who was against Netflix views before they were for it. I’m not gonna stop you from making bad predictions but you attack anyone who doesn’t slather themselves over your favorite movies.

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    Cordelia
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    #1203985802

    Watched One Night In Miami. Really well made movie, I think it’s better directed than expected – feels a lot less boxed in than Ma Rainey’s.

    My earlier phase of thinking this was the Best Picture winner might have gone too far, but I think this stands a competitive chance, and I am not predicting a snub. Hell, I might even think Regina King in Director could slip in, given Director seems weak this year.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203985947

    The reason why everyone’s saying Amazon will back Sound of Metal more than One Night in Miami is because it’s an obvious conclusion. Sound of Metal was always going to do well with the critics, but it reeks of the critic favorite that fails to find an audience with industry voters. The Globes are likely to snub it entirely and I don’t think BAFTA will give it a Best Film nod (though Ahmed and Raci feel safe there).

    At the very best, Sound of Metal gets nominations for Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Sound, but I still think it’s extremely vulnerable in all of the first three categories. I’ve talked about why I don’t think the film or Ahmed will be nominated, but I also think Raci having such a subtle and quiet performance (and don’t me shit about this: Raci is absolutely subtle and quiet. Not that I think it’s a bad thing) will hurt his chances with voters who tend to favor louder performances with big Oscar-bait scenes.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203985956

    On top of all the other reasons I’ve given for why One Night in Miami will do well with industry voters, it’s also a film about famous people going through a struggle of whether or not they should use their fame to politically educate the masses. That plot line alone is pure bait for everyone in Hollywood who feels the need to speak out every time Trump or another Republican does anything they dislike (which is basically every Oscar voters).

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    Marcus.H
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    Oct 21st, 2017
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    #1203985991

    Major contenders that get above 7.7 (with 5000+ votes) on IMDB rn:

    1. SOUL /8.1
    2. Trial of Chicago /7.8
    3. Sound of Metal /7.8
    4. Another Round (Denmark) /7.8
    5. Nomadland /7.7

    That’s all.
    This year is weak and it’s a fact, sorry.

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    marty
    Joined:
    Aug 18th, 2020
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    #1203986023

    Grace ‘I hate Jessica Chastain’ Randolph reviews 2021 Oscar contenders.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pt1STibN7bI

    This woman is so weird and disturbed, why does she get actual legitimate journalist projects? Her takes are awful, she says some truly deranged things sometimes, and she frankly reminds me of someone from qanon.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    LLLhawks
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    #1203986053

    My Best Director lineup right now is just Emerald Fennell, Regina King and David Fincher. Waiting on Minari and Judas to complete it.

    I just love movies. And awards.

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    AMG
    Joined:
    Sep 20th, 2012
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    #1203986080

    Major contenders that get above 7.7 (with 5000+ votes) on IMDB rn:

    1. SOUL /8.1
    2. Trial of Chicago /7.8
    3. Sound of Metal /7.8
    4. Another Round (Denmark) /7.8
    5. Nomadland /7.7

    That’s all.
    This year is weak and it’s a fact, sorry.

    It’s not a weak year. There’s just more films centring on females and black characters this year so the racist, sexist internet f*ckboys are crying while they masturbate over pictures of Trump and voting a tonne of films down because they’re not about white men.

    (Pixar has enough fans to overcome that kind of bullshit; and Nomadland is a film heavily focussed on the American Dream which goes down like warm apple pie)

    Check out more of my thoughts on Twitter (@AMG_Review) and Instagram (amg_reviews)

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